저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 제이미 다이먼은 미국 주택시장에 버블이 형성되고 있다고 경고했지만, 2008년과 달리 레버리지·대출심사가 엄격해 금융시스템 충격은 제한적이라고 본다. 다이먼 발언: 주택가격에 약간의 버블이 있으나 2008년처럼 과도한 레버리지와 부실 대출심사는 없다. 은행 자본은 충분하며 연간 수많은 스트레스 테스트를 견딜 수 있다고 주장. 가격 상승 원인 1: 역사적 저금리. 30년 모기지 35만달러, 계약금 20% 기준 금리 3%면 월 1,476달러, 5%면 1,879달러, 7%면 2,329달러로 금리가 높을수록 부담 증가. 가격 상승 원인 2: 역사적 저재고. 매물 부족으로 오스틴 등 핫 지역에서 입찰 경쟁이 빈번하며, 구조적 단독주택 공급 부족은 10년 이상 지속. 공급 부족 수치: 2012~2019년 단독주택 590만호 공급 vs 새 가구 980만 형성, 약 400만호 부족. 목재 가격은 18개월 전 대비 3배 이상 상승. 2008년과의 차이: 대출 심사 강화(닌자론 소멸), 평균 신용점수 731. 주택구매능력지수는 2006년 107.6에서 2021년 초 187로 현재가 훨씬 부담이 적다. 리스크/조건: 주택가격 둔화의 가장 큰 요인은 금리 인상. 연준이 향후 2~3년간 저금리 유지 방침이라 당분간 금리 부담은 낮다. 다만 가격은 상당폭 더 오를 여지가 있다. 출연자 전망: 주택가격이 두 자릿수 상승률로 영원히 오를 수는 없지만, 정점 도달 전까지 추가 상승 여지가 크다는 입장. 종목·자산 언급: 특정 대상 자산(주식·금·비트코인 등) 직접 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
Jamie dimon he's the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase the largest the big four American Banks he is one of the most well-known voices in finance and due to his position at the top of one of the world's largest banks he has insights into the financial markets and the economy unmatched by virtually anybody that is why it raised a huge red flag for me when I heard what he had to say about what's currently happening in the United States housing market given that the housing market is a multi-trillion dollar industry and as demonstrated by the great financial crisis can have a devastating impact in the global economy people should be paying special attention to what's going on with housing prices on the back of historically low interest rates and limited Supply prices for houses in America have increased dramatically over the past 12 years with the median home price hitting an all-time high of 350 000 this drastic price movement is starting to worry Jamie dimon who is warning of a bubble forming within the housing market listen to this clip of what he had to say Senator did you a little Comfort while it is a little bit of a bubble in housing price and stuff like that unlike 0809 there there was tremendous leverage and bad mortgage underwriting here there's not much leverage and a much better mortgage underwriting so it wouldn't be have the same effect on the financial systems as we had last time and I think all these Banks I mean we have our Capital runeth over we have enough Capital to withstand multiple crises we did the As we did in 208 as we did the pandemic we run 120 stress tests a week some of them far more severe the Federal Reserve severe adverse tests and we can handle all that rather easily before we go any farther it is important to understand what exactly is causing home prices to increase at such a fast rate the rise in prices can be attributed to two main drivers the first being historically low interest rates and the second being historically low supply of available houses for sale on the first point due to actions taken by the Federal Reserve interest rates or mortgages are some of the lowest rates in the history of 9 states to truly understand the housing market is important to understand the DraStic impact the interest rates have on home affordability generally speaking they'll lower the interest rate on a mortgage the more someone can spend on a house all else being equal to demonstrate the impact interest rates have let's look at an example of a 30-year mortgage on a 350 000 house with a 20 down payment at a three percent interest rate at a three percent interest rate with the given criteria the monthly mortgage payment would be one thousand four hundred and seventy six dollars if you increase that interest rate to five percent that mortgage payment would rise to one thousand eight hundred and seventy nine dollars and if you increase the interest rate even farther to seven percent that mortgage payment would shoot up to 2 329 using this example that means a home buyer would pay nearly a thousand dollars more every month for 30 years if the rate on their mortgage was seven percent as opposed to three percent once you think about it in these terms it is much more clear why and how interest rates are able to move home prices so much the lower interest rates are the more people can spend on a house without increasing their monthly mortgage payment this helps to explain that even while home prices have skyrocketed home affordability hasn't dramatically decreased home affordability as measured by the housing affordability index is still substantially above 2005 and 2006 levels in the build up to the housing bubble that caused the great financial crisis another main driver of this surge in pricing is historically low inventory just go in the popular real estate listing site Zillow or talk to a real estate agent and it will quickly become apparent just how low inventory is for houses there are many people looking to buy houses and not many people wanting to sell and as a result prices have increased in certain hot real estate markets such as Austin Texas bidding wars have become extremely common homes are getting multiple offers on the same day the house is listed with many of those offers coming in significantly above what the house is listed for it is just basic economics and supply and demand when there is a limited amount of a certain thing available and a lot of people want it the price of that thing goes up while availability of Supply is currently at an extreme limited supply of houses on the market is not new in fact the lack of single-family homes has been a structural issue for more than a decade new construction of single-family houses has not kept up with the demand for single-family homes since the financial crisis the great financial crisis and the subsequent severe economic recession and decline in home prices caused home builders to be cautious dramatically cutting back on production instead many developers have focused on building large apartment buildings a study from realtor.com found that 5.9 million single-family homes that were built between 2012 and 2019 are insufficient to offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time that is a deficit of nearly 4 million houses that would have needed to be built just to keep up with the demand for housing this problem has even gotten worse due to the increase in the cost of materials to build houses skyrocketing take the cost of lumber for example which is more than three times more expensive now than it was just 18 months ago this shortage of available single-family housing has been a driving factor in the increase in the price of homes over the past decade and rarely gets enough attention in the media given us similarities in how recently it happened this rise in home prices is being compared by some to the great financial crisis there are two key reasons why this is a different environment than in 2008 and 2009 One Mortgage underwriting standards are much more strict and two home affordability Still Remains significantly higher than it was in the build up to the great financial crisis on the first Point Bank and Mortgage Originators learn their lesson when the real estate bubble popped in 2008 and 2009 it is now much more difficult to get a mortgage than in the run-up to the great financial crisis back then it was so easy to get a loan that a term was coined ninja loans which stands for no income no job and no assets this term applies to loans extended to a borrower with little or no attempt by the lender to verify the applicant's ability to repay to put it simply a lot of people received loans to purchase homes who are very risky borrowers and once the economy said to slow down these people quickly fell behind on payments this is a stark contrast to now where the average home buyer has a credit score of 731 which is considered a prime or very credit worthy borrower now let's take a look at home affordability both now and in the build up to the financial crisis to do this we're going to look at the composite housing affordability index the composite affordability index is a measure of home affordability in the United States values over 100 indicate that the typical or median family has more than sufficient income to purchase the median priced home or to put it another way the higher the number the more affordable it is to purchase a house in in 2006 the index score was 107.6 meaning home unaffordability was at or near an all-time high compare that to now where the index score at the beginning of 2021 was 187 meaning homeownership now is significantly more affordable than in the build up to the housing bubble that led to the global financial crisis now that we understand what has led to this huge run-up in housing prices that leads to the next logical question what could cause this strong price momentum to slow down the biggest and most likely thing that could cause the housing market to cool off would be an increase in interest rates as demonstrated by the earlier example when interest rates rise the price that a home buyer can pay for a house while keeping their monthly mortgage payment the same decreases however with that being said the United States Federal Reserve the group that has the ability to increase or decrease interest rates has stated they plan to keep interest rates low for at least the next couple of years that means these historically low interest rates are here to stay for now at least over the next 24 to 36 months it's without question that home prices can keep rising at Double Digit percentage rates forever but that doesn't mean that prices can't increase a lot from where they are now before price levels start to slow down or Plateau so there we have it thanks for watching and I hope you enjoyed the video and learned something useful make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel because it is my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you soon
Comments 0