저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 페이버는 자산가격 디플레이션(급락) 가능성을 기본 시나리오로 보며, 대부분 자산이 함께 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 거시·지정학: 세계 경제 중심이 아시아·신흥국으로 이동했고, 미국이 과도한 부채와 금융화에 노출되어 있다고 평가한다. 미국 대통령 정책과 연준 금리 인하 압박을 비판하며, 금리가 충분히 오르지 않으면 달러 약세 위험이 있다고 본다. 금리·채권: 미국 10년물 금리 약 5%는 세후 기준으로 주식 대비 매력적이라며 미국채를 선호한다고 밝혔다. 다만 연준이 금리를 충분히 올리지 않으면 인플레이션과 달러 약세가 나타날 수 있다고 경고한다. AI·반도체: AI 투자 열풍이 과열 상태이며, 엔비디아·마이크론·AMD 등 고평가 반도체주가 이미 고점을 찍었다고 본다. SOX 지수도 6월 고점 이후 신고가를 못 냈다고 언급했다. 이것이 20~50% 조정으로 이어질 것이라고 주장했다(최소 조정이라는 표현). 이 발언은 가격 하락 예측이므로 반도체 관련 종목은 하락·단기 및 중기 기준으로 본다. 주식시장 전망: 미국 증시는 버핏지수·CAPE 등 역사적 고평가 상태이며, 자금이 미국 밖(유럽 가치주, 베트남·태국·인도네시아·중국 주식)으로 이동할 가능성을 언급했다. 미국 증시 하락 시나리오를 제시했으나 공매도는 유보적이었다. 금·귀금속: 장기적으로 금과 은을 보유할 것을 권하고 있다. 다만 디플레이션 위기 시에는 현금화 압박으로 금도 일시적으로 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 금 보유 비율은 자산의 약 25% 수준을 제시했다. 포트폴리오: 부동산·현금·채권·주식·귀금속으로 분산투자할 것을 권했고, 상업용 부동산은 2018년 이후 부진하다고 평가했다. 리스크: 지정학 리스크(이란 전쟁 등), 정부의 자산 몰수 가능성, 유동성 경색, 부채 소화 실패 등을 제시했다. 출연자 전망: 호스트와 마크 페이버는 AI 붐이 과열된 상태이며 조정 가능성이 크다는 데 대체로 동의했다.
다듬은 글
The current environment of, er, excessive financialization around the world and asset price inflation can only lead to asset price deflation at some point . In other words, a crash in asset prices. Welcome everyone to Metals and Miners. Your number one podcast, where we analyze how markets, geopolitics, and the global economy are changing the future of precious and critical metals and the companies that mine them.
This is a front row seat to the next big commodity supercycle. I'm Gary Bohm, and today we're joined by Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report editor and publisher Marc Faber. Mark, it's an honor to have you back at Metals and Miners. Welcome to the program. Well, thank you very much. It is an honor for me to speak with you and I welcome all your viewers and listeners.
Thank you. Okay, Mark, you have a PhD in economics. You have been working in markets for many decades. You were once a managing partner at Drexel Burnham Lambert. You are a renowned author, a sought-after speaker, and a market trendsetter. Many investors around the world listen to what you have to say about the markets.
There's a lot going on. There is much to discuss, but before we do, what do you hope for from those listening to this conversation? Well, I hope investors understand that the future is unpredictable because we know little about the past. We know a little about the present, but we are no longer entirely sure what is true and what is false, and so on.
And the future is completely unknown , not only because we have a leader in the Western world who is unpredictable and mentally ill, but because in a world that mutates, completely unforeseen events occur. If you look at the last 100 years, we dominated the Western world until World War II, and after that the colonies became free and independent.
Initially, they were largely socialist and communist, so they did not develop at all compared to Western countries. Thus, economic and geopolitical dominance belonged to the Western world, and largely to the United States, as Britain was practically bankrupted by its spending on World War II . But, well, the Western world was still dominant, but now, if you look at the last 40 years, China started opening up in 1978.
The Berlin Wall fell in 1989. India has modernised over the last 15 years, moving significantly away from socialism and self-sufficiency towards a market economy and capitalist system. So in all these countries the standard of living has risen and the size of the economy has grown very rapidly, with the result that many countries now equal or surpass European countries in terms of industrial production, and even surpass the United States in terms of industrial production in the case of China.
So we have a shift in the world's center of gravity , both economically and geopolitically, to Asia and emerging economies in general . The Western world, including America and Japan, accounts for 12% of the world's population, and 88% of the world's population lives in countries like China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, and so on.
It's a completely different constellation than the one we had, say, in the colonial system. Some leaders in the Western world refuse to accept this fact or are misinformed and believe that Chinese people are still working in factories producing Nike shoes for the rest of the world. Nowadays they still exist, but they are not done by workers, but by robots.
So the development of China is amazing, amazing in such a short time. And it's not that, as Americans always say, China stole everything from the Western world. They developed their own ideas, their own industry and their own better production capabilities. Well, there's a lot there, and you know, the last part you talked about about robots and what they're going to bring is, well, I think it's going to shock the world.
And there will be bottlenecks and there will be great needs. I think we're already seeing the beginning of a war for all the key minerals, metals, etc., for the future of robotics, the future of artificial intelligence, etc. The other thing you mentioned that I think is really important is the unknown, and it's impossible to predict all of these unknowns and what's coming.
Before we get into specifics, I'd like to ask about markets and the unknown. Markets usually don't like the unknown, right? There is a belief among investors that markets will go in a certain direction, and then there is a belief that they will go in different directions, and so on. But in my opinion there is always an unknown.
It 's always the same, what will happen tomorrow - nobody knows. September 11th came unexpectedly and so on. And the 1987 disaster took most people by surprise. It didn't surprise me then , but it surprised most people. Or the fall of Japan after 1989, that it collapsed for so long and deeply. It was amazing.
Yes. And if I look at interest rates, I started working exactly in 1970. 10-year Treasury bonds were already at 6% back then, and inflation was lower than today. And people could n't believe it when interest rates exceeded 15% in September 1981. Similarly, no one believed that inflation would be brought under control and that interest rates on 10- year Treasury bonds would fall from over 15.84% in 1981 to 0.54% in August 2020.
You understand? The world is unpredictable at all times. Is. And the difference There is a huge difference between the period you described earlier and the period now, namely debt to GDP. Back then, debt to GDP was very, very low. And they had a lot more room, if I'm not mistaken, to raise interest rates, whereas today the debt-to-GDP ratio is so high that it's off the charts, 120, 125%, and, you know, we already have a budget deficit of two and a half trillion dollars.
Can they...Can they ...Can they let interest rates rise that high? Well, you see, I mean, I've been warning about debt for years because I'm sort of a friend, or maybe I was a friend, of Sidney Homer and Henry Kaufman at Salomon Brothers in the early days, and they were very concerned about the mounting debt under Reagan.
And the financialization of the world, where stock market capitalization as a percentage of the economy has been growing, to the point where we have record stock market capitalization as a percentage of the global economy, and, as you pointed out, we have record debt to GDP compared to, say, the 1970s, when the debt to GDP ratio was still favorable.
It was already relatively high, but nothing compared to today. And it's true that Volcker, when he became chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979 under President Carter. This is one of the few good things President Carter did . But the good thing he did is that he didn't do much, but now we have a president who, whatever he touches, is a disaster.
But I would vote for him over Mr. Trump and I would still vote for him if the alternative were socialists, progressives. Do you understand? He is a disaster, but he is a relatively minor disaster compared to the socialists. They would destroy everything. But the point is that he, Volker, in 1979, immediately raised the federal funds rate by 2%, 200 basis points.
I think Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, knows he should raise interest rates. He knows it. But he is now a politician in the Trump administration, and both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are urging him to cut interest rates. Mr. Trump would like interest rates to be 1%. This shows how little he understands economics.
He is completely ignorant of anything except possibly playing golf and cheating at golf. But other than that, he's a useless, know-it-all, but has no clue about it. Worse still , he knows he has to raise interest rates. But before the elections he is reluctant to do it as he should. Namely, it should raise the federal funds rate by 1% in one fell swoop.
He won't do that. It will raise it by a quarter of a percent, which is useless, useless. All right. I want to talk about this whole component, the sink, the debt, the long end of the treasury, everything, but first I want to get to the AI mania . We have historic levels of capital allocated for expansion.
We have stock markets at levels never seen before by many metrics, the Buffett Index , the Cape Shiller Index and others. We have this K-shaped economy where some people benefit and the rest sink. We have record leverage in the markets. The geopolitical risk is very, very high. And on top of that, we have US hegemony, which is demanding ever-increasing amounts of debt, and that debt is starting to crack to find enough buyers for that debt.
So I think investors want to know, have the markets peaked yet? How to protect our money? Where are the undervalued assets? What do you think about this? Well, there are two possibilities. You see, because I lived through that period, after the crash of 1987, I thought the world would have a major recession , but it didn't happen.
And when the Japanese market crashed in 1989, which I predicted to my advantage, but I made one mistake. I thought that the Japanese market , which at the time was 50% of the world's GDP... I mean, it was crazy in the sense that, let 's say, the palace in Tokyo, the Imperial Palace, the land value of that palace on paper was worth more than the entire state of California.
I mean, it was an incredible reevaluation. But I thought that when it burst, everything would collapse . But no. Some markets continued to rise in the 1990s. It's worth noting that money flowed out of Japan and into the Nasdaq in the US. Yes. and the US stock market, where the Nasdaq saw the most dramatic rise in its history between 1990 and its peak in March 2000.
And this scenario is the possibility that money will flow out of the US has outstripped almost everything in the last 15 years since 2010. But uh in recent uh times, last 2-3 years, some markets have outperformed the US in the last 18 months, Europe has outperformed the US and some emerging markets have also outperformed the US partly because of currency appreciation.
But, well, gold, silver and so on, they outperformed the US stock market. Despite this, the United States continues to dominate, with foreigners having the largest allocation to US assets in history. A lot of money is pouring in from all over the world. Everyone is speculating on Nvidia, Tesla and Micron Technology.
AMD and so on. And SpaceX. And that money may one day come out, if possible, because at some point exchange controls may be introduced . But once they do flow out, they may flow into emerging markets or European equities, primarily value stocks. Because the difference between high-potential companies, AI stocks, and semiconductors, their valuations are very high.
And other stocks around the world, well, quite a few of them are reasonably priced. I would say Vietnam is quite cheap, Thailand is relatively cheap, Indonesia has become cheap and so on . Chinese stocks are reasonably priced. So that money could flow into those markets and the US could go down and other markets could go up.
This is one of the scenarios. But I lived through '73, '74, '81 and '82 when everything went downhill. Even the best companies and so on. It was not a happy time for investors. Do you have a baseline scenario that you think could happen in this scenario? My baseline scenario is as you asked me in the first question: I don't know .
But that's why I'm diversified, you know? I tend to favor bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds at this level, because the 10- year yield is almost 5%. Mhm. I don't think it's a high rate of return, but I think if I can get 5% a year for 10 years tax-free, it's probably better than the Dow Jones or the S& P 500.
And I also think I'll lose less money in gold than in the S&P 500. My strategy is that I recognize that after 1981, we had colossal asset inflation , which caused some assets to decline in value within a few years, like commercial real estate in America, which has been a disastrous investment since 2018.
Printing money doesn't always help everyone. NO. That's the insidiousness of printing money, it creates bubbles that then burst, and then a new bubble appears and bursts, and so on. So we don't know exactly. But in this environment I want diversification. My diversification is some real estate, some cash and bonds, some stocks, and some precious metals.
All right. Mark, many are comparing the AI boom to the internet boom. And if you compared these two periods, would you say we are in 1998-1999, or rather in early 2000, just before the March crash? I think we're in April, after the crash started. Really? Can you? Can you? Yes. Can you explain this?
Well, you see, the 1999-2000 peak was a peak in one market sector, and that was IT stocks. I mean the TMT sector, technology, media and telecommunications. Telecom shares. But real estate was in crisis in 1999 . I mean, relatively speaking, not in crisis, but in cheapness. Certainly compared to stocks.
And bonds yielded over 6%, which is thanks to Mr. Greenspan. Of course, he was a money printer. But within reason. Financial institutions were relatively cautious because in 1998 we had the LTCM crisis, in which three Nobel Prize winners managed to bankrupt the company. This is the best joke. In any case, these events led to a debt-to-GDP ratio that was manageable.
Interest rates were falling and continued to trend downward. In any case, I would say that the current investment mania, both in terms of financial assets and financialization and so on, speculation and the amount of capital investment in AI-related data centers and so on, is more like the railroad boom of the 19th century in terms of magnitude.
It is important to understand that the canal and railroad boom in America in the 19th century, compared to the economy , which was largely agrarian at the time , was something gigantic. Investments were huge relative to the economy. And the artificial intelligence boom is also huge in relation to investment outlays in the economy.
It is not huge in relation to GDP. It's maybe 6% or less than 10% of the economy. But it wo n't last forever, you understand? Every prosperous industry eventually builds too much capacity . It's like cables in 2000 . Too many cables have been built. And Global Crossing, which was run by my friend Gary Winnick Vinnick, went bankrupt.
I mean, hugely. But they're all... It's all these Drexel people, all these former Drexel people, floating on the surface. Now many of them are in insurance in California with Mr. Walter. I mean, the size of the current investment mania is gigantic because we're not just talking about stocks, we're talking about watches, we're talking about jewelry, we're talking about wines, books, paintings, everything.
The art market has become a paradise for speculators and money launderers, a paradise . All right. Okay, let's talk about debt and the ability of the United States to find enough buyers for that debt. You know, we have the level of debt issuance that the United States has now, people are asking whether they can even find enough buyers in a world where China has no longer been a net buyer but a net seller for over 10 years.
Japan and its currency are on the brink of bankruptcy. It requires intervention, which puts Japan in a very difficult situation. And I believe they were a net seller last quarter and are the largest holder of U.S. bonds. You have Europe. They are at war. They are a large net buyer of energy, so they do not have large capital reserves to invest in debt issuance.
Due to the war with Iran, the Middle East is in reconstruction and survival mode. They don't have much capital to invest. So, on top of all of that , you have the expansion of AI infrastructure that is competing for the same capital. So we see these profitability increases. But when you look at the world and consider the level of debt issuance by the United States, it really does seem like there just aren't enough debt buyers.
What do you think about this and what are its implications? Well, what you said is of course absolutely true. You need to ask yourself, who are the buyers? But, the United States has a reserve currency. And, let's say, 10-year US Treasury bonds have an interest rate close to 5%. I am Swiss in Switzerland.
10-year government bonds have an interest rate of 0.5%. So you see, if I'm a bond fund manager, I can invest in Swiss franc bonds , just like in an insurance company, I have to allocate a certain amount to Swiss franc bonds . But some of the things they do is they buy US bonds, but they hedge the currency and so on.
I mean, this whole financial game is huge. But from an economic perspective, I'm not sure that 10- year Swiss government bonds are much more desirable than US Treasury bonds at 10% yield on 5% yield for 10 years. You see, the yield differential currently supports the US dollar, but Mr. Trump would like to see interest rates at 1%.
If that happened, the dollar would collapse. It will collapse anyway, but not now because the difference in profitability is so high. I mean, would you buy a 10-year Chinese bond at 2% interest? I would buy gold. I would buy gold in both cases. Yes, yes. Now we're talking about a bond manager. Yes. Who must allocate capital.
He has He He has no choice but to buy gold. You and I can buy gold. But a bond manager who has a bond fund will likely buy Treasuries instead of U.S. bonds instead of Chinese bonds. I live in Thailand, in the north of Thailand. And 10-year Thai government bonds are around 2.5%. The deposit rate for 6 months or one year is less than 2%.
I mean my deposits in banks, I get less than 2%. But in the US I can get , you know, close to 5% on deposits. This supports the US dollar. Now to use the claim that you would buy gold. When you talk to me , you're talking to someone who has been telling people to invest in gold and silver for the last 30 years or so.
Not all your money, but let's say 25% of your assets. How many people do you know who have 25% of their assets in gold and silver? Eric Sprott and I know three other people have a large portion of their money in stocks. But most Americans have their wealth in their homes. Yes. You understand? Rich people have most of their money in corporate stocks.
Either in their own companies or they have a large stock portfolio. And some live in expensive mansions like brainless people from Hollywood. But let's get back to the brainless people of Hollywood. Mr. Trump wants to subsidize. Yes, let's go back to the bond market, to the long end. We saw an increase in long-end profitability.
And clearly this is a problem for, um, Scott percent. He tried to manage the long end, uh, through interventions on the yen, through interventions on the long end with buybacks, saying he was going to use the Treasury's general account to buy a lot more. Um, you know, presumably he wants to keep capital flowing where it needs to flow, let's say to AI infrastructure, let's say to the stock market.
He doesn't want the budget deficit to grow any more than it already has. He wants markets to continue to function. So he manages the long end. I think a lot of people want to know if it will succeed on its own or if it will need help from the Fed through QE. The answer to this question is: the Fed and other central banks around the world have never tightened monetary policy.
Interest rates have risen, but so has inflation. You may believe, or perhaps your viewers may believe, the tall tales of the Bureau of Labor Statistics , which reports that health care costs have fallen by 35% in the last 5 years. I don't know what country they live in, but everywhere I go I see people paying higher and higher health insurance premiums .
And whenever someone goes to the hospital, the costs are higher than they were a year ago. That's for sure. If the price of a drug has dropped, it is possible that the patent has expired and generics are available . But overall, healthcare costs have gone up significantly, not just a little, but significantly, as have education costs.
And what happened was that quality dropped, especially in healthcare after Mr. Fauci came to power. I mean, it needs to be said once and for all. Mr. Fauci is a criminal. All right. Therefore, money printing and inflation are unsustainable. Will there be a crisis at the end of all this ? Well, let me put it this way.
What scale of the crisis do you expect? And since capital preservation is really paramount, do you recommend cash or something else? When I grew up in Switzerland, there was virtually no inflation. But in the late 1960s and 1970s it also increased , although not as drastically as in America. But my grandparents always said that you should save and put some money in government banks back then, and they are still kind of government banks, cantonal banks.
These are state savings banks, in a sense. They do lend, but they are relatively safe, except in the 1990s when they almost went bankrupt due to their exposure to the real estate market. But it should be fine now, you know? My grandmother gave me this, I mean, not a lot, but quite a lot of money in the 50s and 60s, every birthday and Christmas she gave me 50 francs in a savings account in the village where she came from in Engelberg.
It was a mountain village. Because my grandfather was a pioneer of winter sports. Anyway, I ended up withdrawing that money from the savings bank because they didn't believe I was Mark Faber until I was lucky enough that the judge from that area was related to me, so he said, "Yes, that's him." So I finally got the money.
They went up because of interest, which was usually around 1.2% per year, and then went down because of fees. In the end I got a 500 franc discount. It was the worst investment you could have made. However, if you had bought gold at that time for $35, you would have retained your purchasing power. Would it be better to buy a Picasso or a Rothko?
Or Warhol. I have a Warhol that I bought in 1973. But you know, they were good investments, but not every painting rose that much during that time. Many painters have disappeared and are worthless. Either way, the point is that cash is no longer safe. Everyone needs to understand this. I was at a conference about 10 years ago and someone said to me, "Oh, I have all my money in cash because I don't trust the stock market and stuff." I replied to him: "You're making a big mistake because cash is the worst investment in the long run and there will be inflation." And I mean, your question was about debt levels and monetary policy.
In my opinion, when the money printing starts , and I talked about this back in November of 2008, when the money printing starts, what they called quantitative easing back then, and they talked about when they would end quantitative easing. And my view, everywhere on TV and so on, is that once it starts, it's practically impossible to stop.
If Fed officials had ever read classical economists like Hayek and von Mises, they would know this. But they are sleeping. They work according to models. Kevin Warsh knows Hayek and von Mises. So he says, "You know, we have to raise interest rates." But he may not be able to do that due to politics.
Now he is a politician. Bessant is after him, Trump is after him, and so on. It will be so, and he is rich. He understands that he comes from a wealthy family. His father-in-law would kill him if the stock market crashed. His wife would poison him. All right. Be careful what you eat. Well, you know, that's a really interesting point because you have Bessant, who is very rich, you have Trump, who is very rich, you have Warsh, who is rich, you have Lutnick, who is very rich.
They are all very wealthy and it is very unlikely that they would do anything to threaten their wealth, right? And yes, going back to your argument, I think once QE starts, it is virtually impossible to stop it. And so it comes. The only question is when. This slowdown in money supply growth can be achieved by market forces.
I have a theory. I think liquidity increases as asset prices increase. I can't prove it because people will say, "No, asset prices are rising because of money printing." But it reinforces itself. Mhm. Let's assume there's a cryptocurrency market crash and the cryptocurrency market was $4 trillion at its peak .
Now it's probably around $2 trillion. But if it goes to zero, I can tell you that Gen Z will have less liquidity. I can assure you of that . I see this with my own eyes, as bars once frequented by Generation Z are now quieter. Now they have moved on to sports betting. This is certain. I wouldn't like to place sports bets.
Okay. It's a huge business. It's a huge business. Yes. Yes. All right. How do you predict that all this mania for money creation, sovereign debt and assets will play out in gold, silver , metals, mining, treasury yields, the stock market, all assets? How do you predict this whole mania for money creation, public debt and assets will emerge?
I think the current environment of, um, excessive financialization in the world and asset price inflation can only lead to asset price deflation at some point. In other words, a collapse in asset prices. But before the crash happens, I admit we could go up. But I wrote a report that we were at the top in June.
And my basis, I mean, the argument that I use is that after 40 years of bull markets in asset markets, not everything peaks on the same day. Commercial real estate peaked in 2018. Residential real estate largely peaked some time ago, say 2 years ago. Meme stocks and SPACs have peaked, with most stocks actually peaking at the end of 2021.
Uh spring, summer, end of 2021, beginning of 2022. And now we have an expansion driven by, let's say, 20 actions. The index is not driven by most companies. And I keep track of all the time, I mean every week, the list of new highs and new lows. 12- month new highs, 12- month new lows. There are now more new lows than new highs in a typical day, and we can measure how many stocks are above and below the 200-day moving average.
Now only about 40% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average. So the dynamics are weakening. Theoretically, an index like the S&P 500 could rise by one share. If one stock, say a big one like Nvidia or Apple, rises sharply during the day and 499 stocks fall slightly, the index could end up...
That's because of the market weighting. Hmm. And recently, I've noticed some weakness in Fang and Fang-related stocks, as well as semiconductors. I'm talking about semiconductors, including Micron and Nvidia , so most of those peaked in early June. They did not set new highs. The SOX index also peaked in early June .
The utilities and transport index has also already peaked. So someone might say, "Well, it's just a correction and when interest rates come down, the market will go up again." But what if interest rates don't raise them? So So I don't want to put words in your mouth. Is this your claim that the AI bubble started bursting in June and we'll see a significant market correction of 20, 30, 40, 50% from here?
Yes, at least. Adjustment. And where it is, what started , you say that Yes, I think so. Yes, that's my opinion. Should I sell shares short now? Not necessarily. Because we have a lot, do you understand? We have plenty of liquidity. But liquidity may not flow into the stock. So it will be a deflationary vortex, albeit in your head, where all assets will sink together.
Is this true? This is what you say. This is your view. Yes, okay. Well that was great I just wanted an explanation. This was a great discussion with Mark Faber. Before we wrap up, I would like to recommend anyone interested in the metals and mining sector to dive into our Substack at metalsandminors.substack.com.
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Visit metalsandminers.substack.com to learn more and upgrade to Founder level if you want to participate in the beta. I'm sure you're enjoying the conversation Mark and I are having. Let him know. Click the "Like" and "Subscribe" buttons and leave a comment below the video. Okay, Mark, we're done here .
Could you share the key takeaway you want to convey to viewers watching us, and then let everyone know where they can learn all about your work and how they can contact you, find your website and your newsletter? You are an optimist. Maybe they shouldn't be looking for me. Yes. But the point is this.
I mean, I'm on your page about owning gold. But I think if you believe that's true, the mess will be so big that if Mr. Trump is still president, I think the likelihood of him doing something stupid is high. Stupidity means he can take people's gold or expropriate mines in the name of national security.
National security means transferring assets or wealth from poor people to the Trump family. It's the only thing he's really good at. In which he is an expert. But the second point is that I would hold gold. Now, next time we talk, we need to discuss where to store your gold because you don't want to store it somewhere where the government knows your gold is because that's where they can come and take it away from you .
You want to hide them somewhere. And then you have to choose which bed you want to hide them under, in which house, with which girl, do you understand? And in which country? It is very important to diversify geographically. And mines, I mean I have friends. They are very optimistic about the mine. And I think if I look at it statistically, mines as a percentage of the S& P is a very small percentage, it's 1%.
So I think compared to the S&P, they are worth the price. But I think the S&P value is not what it is, but much lower. But generally, I think if I were to go to jail for 10 years and you told me I couldn't make trades, I would invest most of my money in gold and silver because I think they would retain their purchasing power.
You might not make a lot of money, and in my scenario of asset price deflation, a crash that will happen, I just don't know when. When that happens, gold will likely fall as well, because, you know, not everyone is rich like you and me. Many people have gold and when they have to tighten their belts in Asia, they won't sell their motorcycle or car because they use it to commute to work and take their children to school.
And losing a car or motorcycle is a loss of face. They will not lose their home because it is something very valuable to ordinary people. It's the first thing they buy with their money. They don't know anything about stocks. They buy a house and then they buy insurance, life insurance or health insurance.
And then they have gold. They can sell the gold, no one sees it. So there is selling pressure because the price in times of crisis, when people are broke for food, they sell gold. Yes. So that's something people need to take into consideration. But I think when the disaster comes, as I think it will, some people will lose everything.
All. And some people who own gold could lose 20, 30%, possibly. They can make money. Who knows if everything will go well. But I'm a pessimist. I am a realist. I think if everything collapses, gold will fall too, but less than other things. I see. Well, the last time, you know, we had a big, big historical deflationary event, the Great Depression, Homestake Mining went up 600% and paid over $50 in dividends in 1937, in the middle of the Great Depression, when people had nothing.
So, if they had invested in Homestake Mining in the late 1920s, when mining was less than 1% of the S&P, they would have been rich just on the dividend that came in in 1937. Anyway, Mark, please share with everyone how they can find your newsletter and learn from you , how they can learn from you. It's very nice of you to advertise my products.
I have a website called uh gloom boom doom gloom boom doom all in one word dot com. Uh, if they go on YouTube or Google and Google my name Mark Faber, they can usually find me. All right. Or they might find me late at night in nightclubs playing pool. I like playing billiards. Are you doing well? NO.
No, you just like it. But when I was old, I read that you have to start something new, so I started playing billiards. And in Thailand it's fun because you play with girls and stuff, it's a relaxed atmosphere and no one understands anything about drinking, playing pool and enjoying the night. All right.
Well, everyone who's watching, go to the description section, there you'll find a link to Mark's website, and there you'll find him and you can check him out, follow him. Mark has been in the industry for many, many decades. This is someone who really needs to be taken seriously. Mark, thank you for coming back to Metals and Miners and for sharing your time and ideas so generously.
It's always a pleasure spending time with you and I hope we can host you again soon. To everyone else watching, thank you for watching. Thank you so much and I wish you and your viewers all the best. Thank you. I would recommend anyone interested in the metals and mining sector to dive into our substack at metalsandminers.substack.com.
When you join our rapidly growing community, you will receive a free report. Its title is: "If you don't own gold, you know neither history nor economics." This is a famous quote from legendary investor Ray Dalio, and this will be the title of the report you receive. Oh.
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