저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 짐 로저스는 가격 충격(특히 원유·원자재)은 반드시 올 것이며 금·은 등 실물자산을 소량이라도 보유하라고 강조했으나, 대상 자산에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 거의 내놓지 않았다. [연준 금리 인상 여부] 로저스는 시장 예측이나 연준 발언에 크게 의존하지 않고 시장 자체를 본다고 답했다. 시장은 연준과 자신보다 똑똑하다고 했으나 시장도 실수한다고 덧붙였다. 금리 인상 가능성에 대해 구체적 확률이나 방향을 제시하지 않았다. [미국 장기금리] 재무장관의 장기금리 억제 노력(일본 엔화 개입, 국채 매입 확대, 950억 달러 재무계좌 활용 시사)에 대해 로저스는 워싱턴의 대응은 대체로 실패한다고 평가했다. 관료들은 자리를 지키기 위해 급진적 조치를 쓸 것이라며, 금리는 오를 것이라고 예상했다. 수익률곡선 통제(YCC) 시도는 있을 것이라고 봤다. [금·은 및 광산주] 금과 은을 보유 중이며 가격이 싸지면 더 살 것이라고 했다. 모든 사람이 금과 은을 소량 보유해야 하며 매도한 적이 없다고 밝혔다. 금·은은 수백 년간 자산보호 수단이었고 중앙은행 매입 흐름도 언급되었다. 은은 산업 수요가 있으나 주된 동력은 일반인의 수요라고 봤다. 광산주에 대한 직접적 목표가나 방향 예측은 없었다. [나스닥·AI 버블·증시] 주식시장이 'AI 버블'인지에 대해 명확히 답하지 않았다. 붕괴 시 거의 모든 자산이 함께 떨어진다는 견해를 보였고 2008년식 동조화 가능성을 시사했다. 현재 여러 나라 주가가 역사적 고점 근처라 주식 투자에 매우 조심하라고 조언했다. 자신은 여러 나라 주식을 대부분 매도했다고 밝혔다. 닷컴 버블 대비 현재 위치에 대한 구체적 판단은 없었다. [AI 경쟁·금속 수급] 미중 AI 경쟁에서 중국이 개발 측면에서 앞서 있다는 취지로 언급했다. 구리 등 AI 인프라 금속은 수급 불균형이 있으면 가격이 오른다는 일반론만 제시했다. 특정 금속·기업에 대한 구체적 예측은 없었다. [원유·에너지 가격 충격] 핵심 발언은 원유 가격 충격이 반드시 온다는 것이다. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄, 전략비축유 감소, 정제시설 가동 등이 우려 요인으로 언급되었다. 방향을 특정하지 않고 상승이든 하락이든 충격에 대비하라고 했다. 원유 가격이 현재 크게 하락한 상태라 기회가 있을 수 있다고 시사했으나 명시적 매수 권고는 아니다. 원유가 장기적으로 모든 투자에 영향을 준다고 강조했다. [원자력·우라늄] 원자력이 효율적이고 저렴하며 중요성이 커질 것이라고 봤으나 우라늄 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없었다. [조건·리스크] 시장이 모두 한 방향으로 움직이고 모두가 돈을 벌 때는 오래 지속되기 어렵다는 경계론을 폈다. 다수가 같은 방향으로 베팅하는 상황에서 역행의 위험이 있음을 강조했다. [출연자 전망 요약] 로저스는 인플레이션 자체보다 정책 실패와 금리 상승, 원자재 충격을 우려했고, 실물자산과 현금 흐름 관점을 강조했다. 자신도 틀릴 수 있다고 반복해 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
Yes, we will definitely have price shocks, and all you need to do is get on the right side. Be long or short because there will be shocks. They always have been and always will be. Always . Always. And especially if no one is talking about it, like oil or something like that , pay more attention, because when people ignore something, I assure you, the price of oil will be important to you for the rest of your life.
Welcome to the "Metals and Miners" podcast. This is your number one podcast on how markets, geopolitics, and the global economy are rewriting the future of precious and critical metals and the companies that mine them. This is your front row seat to the next big resource supercycle. I'm your host, Gary Bowe.
Today we have Jim Rogers, legendary commodities investor , chairman of Rogers Holdings, and co-founder of Quantum Fund with George Soros. Jim, it's a great honor to have you on Metals and Miners. Welcome to the show. Oh, Gary, it's an honor. Are you kidding? I am very pleased. I am delighted. No, thank you.
So, Jim, you have been a successful commodities and real assets expert for many decades. Many investors and analysts believe we are on the cusp of the next major real asset supercycle. There's a lot going on in the world and in the markets, with the Fed and the Treasury, and we'll talk about it . But before that, what would you like the listeners to take away from today's conversation?
Well, I hope I can at least get people thinking. The best thing we can do in investing—and in any field—is to ask questions and think for ourselves. If you make investment decisions based on advice from people you meet in the park or at a bar, you are unlikely to succeed. Those who think for themselves and pursue their own interests rather than listening to others do best in the investment world.
So please don't listen to me. Please listen to Gary. That's a great observation. Not the last one, but in general. Good. So, Jim, recently in Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh told the world that the fight against inflation is not over yet. He told several stories about hiking the Jackson Hole trails with former Fed officials.
The algorithms took it as if he, you know, and the Fed were guaranteed to raise rates in September. At this time, prediction markets still estimate the probability of a rate hike at over 40%, but this figure has been declining in recent days. Given the midterm elections and the growing need for economic growth, do you think the Fed will actually raise rates ?
Well, Gary, I don't pay that much attention to it . I'm looking more closely at the market. The market is smarter than you and me and the Fed. Definitely smarter than the Fed. So I try to let the market tell me what will happen. Although the market also makes mistakes. I make mistakes, but I try to follow the market and understand what it is saying better than anyone else.
Of course. Good. So, Jim, Treasury Secretary Bent is trying to rein in the too-rapid rise in long-term yields. He has recently taken several measures. He intervened in the Japanese yen situation to prevent them from selling off Treasury bonds. He is buying back bonds, increasing volumes. It's meager, but starting next week they will grow from two to four billion.
He hinted that he would use the 950 billion that is in the treasury account . We have a national debt of over 40 trillion. Defense spending and interest on the debt are approaching 1.5 trillion each. Baby boomers are retiring at a massive rate. And all these unfunded liabilities are transferred to the balance sheet.
Foreign powers are retreating. I don't know if you saw today , but Norway's $2 trillion fund said it wants to start reducing its Treasury holdings. And all of this is happening right as we build the infrastructure for AI to compete with China, and they're competing for the same capital. I wonder how successful the ministry can be in this situation?
Do you expect new interventions? And do you expect further growth in long-term yields? Well, I expect the rates to rise. No matter what they try to do in Washington, they usually fail. I mean, Scott is a smart guy, but everyone makes mistakes. And his problem, like everyone else's problem, is the huge bureaucracy.
There are many of them there . They all think they are smarter than you and me . They all think they are smarter than everyone else. Therefore, they will take measures that they believe will help them keep their jobs. They really don't care about you and me , Gary. They care about their positions, so they try to do everything possible to keep them.
And whether we like it or not, their power is quite large, because they have a lot of money in the bank , in a vault, or on their computer. They have a lot of money on their computer, and they know it. So, sorry. Continue. Well, I just wanted to say that you and I and everyone else may be smarter than them, but they have a lot more money than we do.
OK. So, given the situation that we just described, and given what you've said, do you expect the yield curve to be controlled at some point, or do you think they'll just sit back and let yields rise to whatever level they want, and then the economy and the markets will take the medicine that they need to take?
Well, I expect interest rates to go up, and whoever causes it—you or Mother Teresa—I don't know, but rates will go up. Do you expect to control the yield curve at some point? Well , I'm sure they'll try. You know, they need to hold on to their jobs. They have to do, they have to show that they are doing something.
So they will try various radical measures. They keep their jobs. So, rising profitability has a strong impact on the economy, markets, ordinary people, businesses, etc. And then they will try to introduce yield curve control . How do you foresee gold, silver, mining companies, and hard assets responding to such interventions?
Well, what can I know? I own gold. I own silver. If they get cheaper, hopefully I'll be smart enough to buy more of one or the other, or both. I mean, whether we like it or not, Gary, gold and silver have been around for hundreds of years and have always been a place where many people put their assets to protect themselves or make money.
And as for me, I believe that everyone should have a little gold and silver in their closet. Must have some gold and silver under the bed. I certainly have gold and silver. And my plan is to buy more in the future. I have never sold gold and silver. I hope my children will one day receive my gold and silver.
Yes. Good. So, many people watching this believe that the stock market, especially the NASDAQ, is in a " bubble," and if it bursts, it will take gold, silver, and mining stocks with it . In 2000–2002, when you had your fund, well, you probably launched it a few years before the dot-com bubble burst and the NASDAQ fell 83%.
At that time, mining stocks began to fall, but then eventually rose by about 75% between 2000 and 2002, while the NASDAQ collapsed. Where do you see the stock market in the context of the AI bubble compared to the dot-com period now? And if the AI situation explodes, do you expect a rotation similar to that, or do you see it more like 2008, where all assets correlate and fall together?
Well, unfortunately, when the markets start to collapse, almost everything falls. People look out the window and see everyone else losing money, so they think they should sell too, and usually join in . We are all human, and when things go up or down, we want to be involved, and it will happen again.
Yes, you and I seem to think that prices could go down again. But if and when it happens, everyone will join in, as we have always done throughout history. I wish everything was simple. Unfortunately, it is not simple or easy. This is true. I am in no way playing to short gold and silver. I own both and expect to buy more if they drop in price.
Do you view the current general markets, NASDAQ, technology stocks in the same light as the dotcoms in the late 90s, or do you see the situation as stable, where everything looks good and there are no problems in the near term? Oh, this is magic. No problems. I've never had a market where there weren't any problems.
In the markets, something can always go wrong or vice versa— at least in my experience. So the idea of no problems ... My poor mind can't comprehend no problems because I'm not smart enough. I always have trouble figuring things out . I know that most people were buying stocks everywhere in the world, the markets were "bullish" and felt good all over the world, which is one of the few such moments in world history.
I mean, it's great when everyone has fun, but it makes me ask more questions because I know that historically, if everyone is making money and everyone is doing the same thing , it's unlikely to last long. That's why I don't own stocks in many places. I have sold my stocks in most countries around the world and am trying to figure out what to do next.
That's why I'm looking to you to figure out what to do next. Of course. Yes. OK. Um, so we're continuing to build out our AI infrastructure. The US is competing with China. This has been called an existential question for the future spread of AI in the world, and through AI, the possibilities of spreading, well, you know, the ideals of the United States against the ideals of China.
Who will win in this? I know that China, well, you know, is far ahead in terms of development. Well, it's also needed for robotics. And China is also ahead in this field. It seems that in terms of development for the United States, and in many regions of the West, these are only the initial stages, and it will take many more trillions of dollars and several years to complete the full infrastructure development.
Do you expect, due to the existential nature of all this, that the authorities will do everything possible to create the conditions to guarantee this development? With that in mind, what impact do you foresee on critical metals and mining companies , especially given the supply shortage that exists?
Let me get straight to the point. In my opinion, everyone who watches this show should have gold and silver. Gold and silver have existed for hundreds and thousands of years, and probably will always exist. Remember Jesus Christ? I mean, Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. Even in those days, silver was valuable and important, and it will likely remain so for as long as we all live.
So please, we should all have some gold and silver . How much depends on you and your situation, but everyone, everyone should have a little gold under their bed. Everyone should have some silver in their closet. Everyone. How do you rate other metals related to AI infrastructure, such as copper, etc.?
You know, there is a huge supply shortage and a huge demand for them. Well, the main thing, not even the main thing, but the only thing that matters is supply and demand. And if there's a supply shortage and demand is increasing, Gary, it's pretty simple. The price will go up. And all you have to do is figure out the supply and demand situation for anything, whether it's copper or wheat, whatever.
If you can figure it out, please send me an email. I want to know the answer. I'm sure your teams are working on it, Jim. Um, okay. So, I clearly understand that gold and silver should be core assets for everyone. Ahem. In the 70s, central banks sold gold. Today they are buying it. Um, back then the debt-to- GDP ratio was in double digits.
Today it is in three figures. Um, the United States was, and is, the reserve currency then and today, but it was the most powerful hegemon on earth, and today that is under threat. How do you see the long-term outlook for gold, say, over the next three to five years? Um, yes. How do you look at this?
Oh, if only everything were that simple. Let me guess, if it were 1926, we would all be sitting here talking about gold. Because gold was extremely important , Britain had the main currency, was the main central bank in the world at that time. And the British, their colonies, and their possessions—all owned gold and silver.
And most of those banks own gold and silver. I repeat, gold and silver have existed for centuries, centuries, and will continue to exist. I remember everyone was worried: oh my god, what are we going to do with the pound sterling? But there has always been something, especially currency, central bank currency, that we have all worried about, or talked about, or that drives our decisions.
It's always been that way. These were different currencies. These were different metals. These were different subjects. But we have always had something that has bothered us and forced us to have discussions throughout history. And gold and silver have almost always been part of this discussion. I repeat, everyone should have a little gold under their bed.
Everyone should have some silver in their closet. Just look at history. Maybe you don't believe in gold and silver. It doesn't matter what you believe. Look at the story. The world has always done this and probably always will, whether we like it or not. Yes, there are skeptics and opponents, but that's normal.
These opponents, I mean, gold and silver have outlasted all opponents. Of course, there were periods when both assets were weak, but eventually gold and silver took their place. Do you look at silver through a prism similar to gold? You keep saying gold and silver, gold and silver. Do you view them in a similar light, that they move in the same way as gold, up until the later stages of the cycle and then accelerate, or do you look at it from a different angle, perhaps because of the industrial needs that exist today?
But you have to take everything into account. And yes, silver has many more uses, industrial uses, as you pointed out, than gold . But the main driver is all of us, ordinary people. You know, we've known for decades, centuries, that gold and silver have their place in this system and will protect us if and when the time comes.
Yes, there are times when the demand for gold and silver is higher than at other times, but in the end, Gary, just always study history. I mean, when America was founded , it was based on the silver standard. The currency has long been based on silver. I mean, gold and silver come and go. They always have come and always will.
I'll just repeat myself to be boring, but everyone should have a little gold and silver somewhere. If you don't want it for yourself, keep it for your children and grandchildren . Great advice. Okay , so you started your foundation in the 90s. Can you tell us what you saw that inspired you to go down this path and create this foundation?
You know, the thing that made you say, " Okay, I need to organize this. There's something going on here." Well, I certainly realize that, and if you look at history, you'll see that there were times when commodities were extremely important to everything. And that meant that at times commodities were extremely important in the investment world , especially gold and silver.
Yes, there was a time when people said, "Don't worry. Don't waste your time." But ultimately, we all own some gold. We all own some silver in one way or another . We all own a certain amount of wheat. Whether we like it or not, commodities are an extremely important part of the financial and economic system.
Yes, they fluctuate. They have periods when they are popular and periods when they are not popular. But I advise and urge everyone to know about commodities. Whether you invest in them or not, you need to know about them. Do you see any similarities today with the time when you founded your foundation or when you started thinking about creating one?
Well, in the sense that not everyone around is talking about it . Um, in that sense, yes, there were, I repeat, times when commodities were extremely, I mean, on everyone's lips, and there were other times when it wasn't. But ultimately, Gary, throughout history, we all have to know about cotton; we all need to know about copper, whether we like it or not.
even if you don't invest in such things. The companies you invest in, do they need it, they use all of it. So you need to know about it. What's causing this big transition, when people aren't talking about it, aren't investing in it , when it's not on everyone's lips, and suddenly everyone somehow owns it and everyone's talking about it.
What causes this type of transition? Bull market. You know, everyone loves a bull market , and if you go to the bathroom on a Saturday night and everyone is talking about cotton, pay attention. And if no one is talking about cotton, pay attention to that too , because ultimately, we all need to know about copper.
We all need to know about oil, whether we like it or not. Okay, I'm glad you mentioned oil, Jim. Well, let's discuss energy here. Huge volumes of oil disappeared from the market even before the Iran war. Eh, production levels. Strategic oil reserves were depleted to keep prices down. At the same time, we have oil refineries .
Some of them were stopped because of the war. They are working at full capacity. Accidental explosions have occurred at oil refineries around the world. Hmm, do you think we're in for a price shock ? I think that's what everyone is worried about. Waiting for what? Price shock. I think everyone is worried about this, given the amount of oil that has disappeared from the market.
The fact that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and strategic oil reserves are depleted. Yes. Throughout your lifetime, we have had periods of price shocks, no matter what it was. So my answer to you is yes, we will definitely have price shocks. And all you need to do is be on the right side, either playing for a raise or a lower hand, because there will be shocks.
They always have been and always will be. Always. Always. And especially if no one is talking about it, about oil or something like that , be more careful. Because when people ignore something, I assure you, the price of oil will be important to you for the rest of your life. Directly or indirectly, it will affect each of us, just like cotton, sugar, and many others.
So I am grateful to you for your warnings. And I appreciate your wise advice and everything you say. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz... you know, not every country is an energy producer, or a large producer, so they have to import a lot. Europe is in exactly this situation . The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced many to rethink their energy security, and it seems that many countries are again talking about and favoring nuclear power, even though it has been in decline for years after Fukushima.
How do you view nuclear energy and, in particular, uranium as a metal? Well, I'm not the only one who knows that nuclear power is extremely efficient and often very cheap compared to other sources. And whether we like it or not, nuclear energy is not going away, and it will become increasingly important in the future.
Therefore, everyone should know whether they own shares of energy companies or utilities , or the resource itself. This is something you definitely need to know about. If you want to be a successful investor, you need to know about this. You may not be investing in oil, marijuana, or anything else, but you should know about it if you want to succeed.
I believe that energy as a component of the S&P, in the early 2000s, was between 6 and 8%, and today this figure is much lower. Do you expect a reversion to the mean? Is this something you have typically seen over the decades in the energy sector? Well, what you just said is like General Motors. There was a time when General Motors was extremely important in people's investment portfolios.
At other times it was less important. The same with cotton. The same with oil. But we all use oil. Whatever we buy or sell is made using oil. This is transported using oil. So we need to understand: we may not be investing in oil, but we need to know what the price of oil is and how it will change in the future, because it will affect all of our investments.
I don't want to give you an investment education class right now , but everyone, even if you've never bought oil stocks, should know about oil and its price because it has a powerful impact on the economy and, therefore, on the stocks of companies you might invest in. The war took the wind out of the sails of metals and mining , precious metals and miners, but they seem to have bottomed out in late July , and sentiment and capital have been returning to the sector since then.
This is not a full recovery yet, but the recovery process is underway. For those of you watching us, what do you think could really throw things off course? So, what can ruin a holiday, so to speak, for people? Well, being on the wrong side will definitely ruin the holiday for everyone. If you play for a downgrade and others don't—be careful.
If you are playing for a raise and others are not—be careful. Whether we like it or not, all of this, no matter what metal it is , affects every company in the world and every person on the planet. Maybe indirectly, but it has an impact. So I hope all of your viewers will study metals and minerals, because it concerns everyone.
Even if you never invest in copper, you need to know about it because it will affect everything you do. To everyone who wants to become a successful investor: the more you know, the better. And minerals and metals are extremely important to the global economy. So, Jim, it's understandable that you don't want to get into specifics, and I appreciate that, but I'm curious.
I think many people want to know in which areas of the market do you see the biggest investment opportunities today? I know that everything works in cycles, things change over time. It's 2026, not 1998, not 2010, or any other year. Where do you see the biggest investment opportunities today? Well, probably not in stock in most countries around the world.
Stocks in most countries have recently reached historic highs. It has rarely happened in history that everyone reached historic peaks at the same time. Therefore, I would advise people to be very careful with investing in stocks and look for areas that are not currently booming. Let's say oil is not at an all -time high right now.
It has dropped significantly in price. Maybe there is some opportunity here. But at least people should know about it, because it will affect everything. If you drive a car, gasoline prices will affect you. And whether you invest in transportation companies or not, everything has to be delivered. If you are going to be an investor, you need to know what is going on around you .
And whether we like it or not, I repeat: the price of oil affects everything you invest in. like copper, like sugar, like everything else. Well , that was a great discussion. Before we wrap up, I want to direct anyone interested in the metals and mining sector to our Substack: metalsanders.substack.com.
When you join our rapidly growing community, you'll receive a free report. It is called: "If you don't have gold, you know neither history nor economics." This is a famous quote from investment legend Ray Dalio, and that's what the report you'll receive is called. I'm sure you enjoyed the conversation I had with Jim.
Please let him know about this. Click the " like" and " subscribe" buttons, and leave a comment under the video. Okay, Jim, we'll wrap up. Could you share a key message for viewers, as well as how they can find and contact you? Well, Gary, I have nothing to sell, no newsletters. I have nothing to sell.
I'm just an ordinary person. I know about you and I think you're a smart guy. So I know that when I talk to smart people, I usually learn something. I hope everyone learns from you and other smart people. It's not easy. At least for me it has never been easy. And the more we know, the fewer problems we will have .
And in fact, the more we know, the more success we can achieve. I repeat, this is not easy. I wish it were different. Well, Jim, you've been a very successful investor for decades. We are grateful that you came to us. We value your advice, your ideas, your teachings—all of it . You were very generous with your time.
Thank you for being with us. I look forward to your participation in the future. And to everyone else who watches us, thank you for watching. I'd love to come back someday, Gary. Please remember that I make mistakes too. Thank you, Jim. We appreciate you. Thank you. See you later. I want to direct anyone interested in the metals and mining sector to our Substack: metalsanders.substack.com.
When you join the rapidly growing community, you'll receive a free report. It is called: "If you don't have gold, you know neither history nor economics." This is a famous quote from investment legend Ray Dalio. And that's exactly what the report you'll receive is called. Hey, hey, hey.
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