저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
미-중 무역전쟁과 달러 패권 약화, 미국발 금융위기 재발 가능성을 주장한 인터뷰. 미국의 환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP) 탈퇴로 중국이 아시아에서 경쟁자 없이 입지를 넓히고 있으며, 트럼프 정책이 오히려 중국을 강하게 만든다는 견해. 달러 기축통화 지위는 점진적으로 약화되고 있으며, 러시아·중국·이란 등이 루블·위안화 결제와 통화스와프를 확대 중이라고 설명. 다만 단기간이 아닌 수년에서 수십 년에 걸친 과정이라고 언급. 미국 경제는 과도한 부채로 인해 2008년보다 더 큰 금융위기가 올 것이며 그것이 자신의 생애 최악이 될 것이라고 경고. 시점은 특정하지 않음. 제재는 대상국에 오히려 도움이 되는 경우가 많다고 주장(러시아 농업 사례). 중국은 엔지니어 배출 규모상 자급이 가능하다고 봐 미국 기업의 시장 상실을 우려. 국유화·사회주의는 역사적으로 실패했다고 평가하며 영국 우체국 민영화 사례도 언급. 시장 전반에 대해 특정 종목의 단기 방향 제시는 없음. 출연자 견해 요약: 달러 약화 장기 진행, 미국 금융위기 재발 가능성 높음, 제재와 보호무역의 역효과, 중국의 기술·산업 자립 가능성 상승.
다듬은 글
yes but the USA is not just offensively hacking countries it is involved in full-spectrum surveillances revealed by Edward Snowden arguably making accusations against Chinese companies like Huawei even more visible joining me now via Skype from the British colony of Bermuda is Guinness world record holder Jim Rogers he founded the Quantum Fund of George Soros and is the author of a bull in China investing profitably in the world's greatest market Jim welcome to going underground so you've said Trump is making China great again do you think some Chinese Communist Party officials are laughing at the latest sanctions against Huawei well Trump pulled out of the trans-pacific partnership and the Chinese looked around and said well that means we're the only ones left so they can take over Asia now maybe that's what mr.
Trump is thinking make America great but it is doing a lot to make China great because now they don't have any major rivals in Asia and the Pacific from that's terrific yeah but you've been talking for years about the end of the dollar or perhaps the end of the dollars reserve currency do you think China will be seeing this and their developments or the AIB Bank as they try and promote that as as presaging the end of the dollar well as you well know several people with several countries in the world are looking for a replacement at least a competitor for the US dollar it is starting to happen there are the banks that the Chinese and others have developed to compete with the US dollar and it's happening I mean when the pound sterling lost its status it didn't happen in the year it didn't happen in a decade but it happened and the same thing is starting to happen with the US dollar I know you've been saying it for a while lots of people been saying for a while and you you just put your historian hat on there saying mentioning the British Empire why has it taken so long for countries like Russia China Iran to start using currency swaps in rubles and RAM nummies first of all there's no infrastructure to call up your bag and say I want to do something else the bank doesn't know what to do nearly and nearly were everywhere in the world including America coding in Iran so it takes a while for people to start thinking about it it takes a while for people to actually learn how to do it and it takes a while for people to do it eventually everybody does it a second nature they know that it's better off it's easy thing to do but right now I know most places in the world if you save foreign currency everybody says US dollars that's the problem maybe that's why people are the competitors are now trying to arise because they gave the US dollar in the US government too much power I don't know whether you run into Christine Lagarde recently the famously convicted previously convicted of corruption in a French Court head of the IMF but I mean when you meet people like that they don't seem nearly as concerned as you do and they seem relatively sanguine about the world order of the world financial architecture bureaucrats the way you make it in that world issue you rise up through academia or bureaucracy and you do what you're supposed to do you do what everybody else does you accept the conventional wisdom then all of a sudden you look around and the whole world has changed and you don't know what happened for goodness sakes if you're giving you advice from government bureaucrats and politicians and academics oh my goodness you're gonna have real problems I'm not sure how many countries the United States currently sanctions but do you really think the United States might sanction Turkey NATO ally Turkey because it's now threatening Turkey after it's obviously been threatening recently more on Venezuela on Iran who knows who else it should look around in the past two or three years especially the last two or three years America keeps doing contradictory things one day they say excellent next day they say why and I'm not sure anybody in Washington has a central focus on what's going on mr.
Trump doesn't seem to and then I don't know who else does you you see them recently in the Middle East they started attacking cats our cats are largest military bases and then what trumping the people in Washington were bad-mouthing cats all right left and center I mean finally somebody pull mr. Trump aside said wait a minute you know one of our largest military basis is there let's calm this down do you think ironically as well the American people seem to understand some of the things you've been saying for so many years because the word socialism is now in parlance and people like Sanders talking about mass infrastructure projects probably a bit like China who knows as the only way to stop the kind of financial meltdown you've been predicting since 2008 we're going to have another one even though the central bank in America says we want and what I said is that the next one's going to be the worst in my lifetime I don't know when it's gonna be I guess you should watch RT to find out when but you know in 2008 we had a problem because of too much debt well since then Astron the debt is skyrocketed everywhere even China has a lot of debt now so no we're certainly going to have another one and it's going to be the worst in my lifetime now I know you're out there for all those big investors but we have here British steel going a bust in this country and so many of the names famous for the privatizations ever since the 1980s in this country mrs.
Thatcher what would you suggest a government like Britain's to do to begin nationalizing now ahead of any big meltdown like the one you're talking about no no do you think the post office is a paragon of efficiency do you think privatize the post office here I have to tell you it's just the United States you've got a national one oh that's right they did privatize the post office there's the British post office newly privatized is also in financial trouble maybe somebody should take it maybe they should take over the American post office and trying to fix ours I was certainly not very efficient nationalization in my view you know we tried socialism we tried communist and we tried it in many many places many many times it has not worked maybe it will work the next time we try it but human nature is such it it's not going to work while we are responding to this latest us Google attack by saying they're gonna start vertical integration and their own operating system so people saying soon relatively soon China will be able to supply its own market let alone international markets do you do you see policymakers understanding what's going on in that part of the world did you invest so much in well I will certainly say that sanctions have never worked they've always hurt people in the end for instance right now every morning Russian farmers wake up and say thank you mr.
Trump he put sanctions on Russian farmers Russian agriculture is booming booming because of the sanctions watan thoughts is going to happen is the Chinese are going to come self-sufficient and many things which means as many American companies are gonna lose their their markets you say that the Chinese will not be able to produce everything well I'm skeptical of that statement because there are billion 300 million Chinese they produce 10 times as many engineers every year as America does some of the bad engineers but some have got to be good so I'm I don't think this is gonna rebound and hurt America rather than help us just finally thanks for the advert for our tea but of course a lot of viewers of our tea and around the world tend to blame George Soros and I know you work closely with him what do you think about these attacks on in single individuals instead of entire structures when it comes to neoliberalism when the fight back against neoliberalism or first action that was over 40 that was 40 years ago you might as well ask me about my first wife nor do I care but certainly most argumentum on tournaments have never been good you know if you cannot come up with a logical rational argument on your own you start attacking people that's never been a good sign in fact when I was a kid in a university we used to say if you start resorting to argumentum ad hominem that means you've lost it you've lost the argument Jim Rogers thank you
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