저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 금은 지금 사지 않지만 장기적으로 버블이 올 수 있으며, 현재 가장 매력적인 귀금속은 많이 하락한 은이다. 귀금속: 금은 사상 최고가 부근이라 매수하지 않고 보유 중이며, 버블은 먼 미래(2019년은 아님)에 올 것으로 봤다. 은은 사상 최고가 대비 약 70% 하락해 있어 금속 중 선호한다고 밝혔다. 농산물: 설탕은 사상 최고가(1974년) 대비 약 70% 낮고, 브라질의 설탕 기반 에탄올 연료 수요와 중국·인도 등 신흥국의 설탕 소비 증가로 향후 10년간 크게 오를 것으로 전망했다. 농산물 전반이 투자 유망하다고 봤다. 에너지: BP 사고 이후 미국의 해상 시추 중단 등으로 원유 공급이 줄어 장기적으로 유가가 크게 오를 것이라 전망했다. 단기(몇 달) 방향은 확신하지 못한다고 했다. BP 주식: 현재 매수하지 않고 관망 중이며, 재난 이후에도 매수할 시간이 충분하다는 입장이다. 정부와 BP 발표는 자기 입장을 포장하는 것이라고 봤다. 통화: 달러 등 통화 가치 변동이 향후 수개월~수년 내 심각한 문제를 낳을 것이라 경고했고, 투자자들이 통화를 공부해야 한다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
what about your bets on commodities your long positions especially on gold there's more and more talk of a potential gold bubble I know you're pretty bullish when it comes to that precious metal are you still giving the record high we've seen in gold in the last few days well I'm not buying gold I don't like to buy anything at an all-time high I'm not selling a gold is going to go on for quite a long time there will be a bubble in gold in the end but that may be 2019 I that's a ways away certainly most bull markets long-term bull markets and in hysteria and in bubbles we will have that in gold someday down the road I mean I if I had to buy a precious metal I'd rather buy one of the depressed ones like silver or palladium or something but I'm not selling my gold on any circumstances would you be a buyer of copper right now it just seems to have both of those the value of gold in terms of the the hard literally hard investment and then also the utility side to it well I would prefer to buy silver just because you know silver is nearly 70 percent below its all-time high papi that's that's awfully depressed so if I had to buy a metal I was I would urge your viewers to to think about silver they don't think about all the metals or all the commodities but I would the precious metals I think I would prefer silver only because it's so depressed what about outside of the euro what are you buying now I'm not buying much of anything I'm watching these days if I were buying something our gregorio commodities are still extremely depressed sugar is still 70 percent below its all-time high and its all-time high was in 1974 so you can see this is really a depressed market and there's several commodity markets that are that depressed want to talk about sugar at a sugar conference recently you basically said that this commodity could go on a tear in the next decade what has you so bullish on sugar Jim well the main thing is that more and more people are using sugar in as fuel which is a huge new source of demand we're talking about Brazil running a lot of their country off of a sugar based ethanol yes definitely and the Brazilians are getting better and better at it and other people are trying to copy them the Chinese the Indians and others with huge populations and of course as Nations become more prosperous they like sweet they like sweets nothing unusual about that has been going on for a few thousand years it's not like you had to be some kind of genius to know that and so there's more demand coming for sugar and there's not much scope poppy for increased production not dramatic increase production anyway they like sweets and they like meat as their cultures become more affluent that's for sure what about oil given the BP disaster I want your take on big oil in general and then BP specifically well you know what's happening but as a result of this horrible tragedy is is it there's no it's less offshore drilling the US has said we're not going to have any offshore drilling and they've stopped what was in process other countries are now thinking about regulating it more and more or even controlling it more and more poppy it's a simple fact less drilling less oil less oil means higher prices if you may remember that in six months ago or even three months ago mr.
Obama was saying we're gonna start drilling offshore because we desperately need more oil America needs more oil well now we did if we desperately needed oil three months ago we certainly desperately need it now and there's gonna be even less drilling than there was and that means that over the longer term the supplied the known supplies of oil are going to continue to decline I don't know what's gonna happen next week or next quarter but over the next decade one's got to go a lot higher what about BP specifically you've been shying away from equities as of late BP right now are you a buyer you waiting it for it to if it goes down further no I'm just watching there's no reason for me anyway to jump in there plenty of brave people who can jump in and maybe even scalp something but I'm not one other I have no idea I don't know what's going on in the bottom of the ocean I have I know that whatever the government says whatever BP says they're all spinning it to make themselves look better I'm just sitting and waiting in my experience it is great to buy something when there's a disaster but in my experience also there's usually plenty of time even after the disaster comes to an end there's usually time to buy into the problem so I'm just watching and Jim what's not getting a attention right now as an investment that you think should be getting more attention maybe you're not a buyer of it right now but you're looking at it well we're going to have more currency problems we're going to have serious currency problems over the next few years of next few months probably several months for that matter I would urge people to learn about currencies most people don't know that the shift in the value of the dollar or other currencies can have dramatic effects on their lives but they can and one can make dramatic profits if one gets it right this is very important for everybody's life much more important than the stock market I mentioned a grue cultural before agricultural commodities are a great place to invest these are places where I would be looking if I were if I were an investor
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