저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 2019년 5월 이후 약세장 반등이 끝났으며 추가 하락(다우 약 20% 조정 가능성)이 예상되고, 연준은 결국 금리인하와 양적완화 재개로 돌아서지만 인플레이션과 경기침체가 동시에 오는 스태그플레이션이 올 것이라는 주장. 증시 전망: 5월 1일 연준의 비둘기파 기대 실망 이후 반등이 정점이었다고 주장. 무역전쟁 격화로 주가가 약 6% 하락했으며, 다우 600포인트 하락은 과소반응이고 실제로는 6,000포인트 하락이 맞다고 함. 과거 2007년 고점 후 18개월 뒤 폭락 사례를 들어 하락 시나리오를 제시. 하락 목표는 고점 대비 약 20%. 연준 정책: 연준이 금리인상 중단은 했으나 금리인하는 아직 없고, 다음 조치는 금리인하와 양적긴축 종료라고 전망. 인하 폭은 제로금리까지 약 200bp로 제한적이라 큰 거품을 만들기 어렵고, 양적완화는 월 850억달러에서 2~3천억달러 규모로 확대될 수 있다고 봄. 인플레이션: 연준 대차대조표가 약 4.5조달러 수준에서 축소가 되어도 원래 수준(1조 미만)으로 돌아가지 못했으며 이는 사실상 국채 monetization이라고 주장. 달러 지수가 고점 부근이라 양적완화 시 달러가 급락해 소비자물가가 크게 오를 것이라 전망. 경기: 1분기 GDP 3.2%는 일회성 요인 때문이며 실제 성장은 낮고 2분기 반등 후 상반기 평균 2% 미만, 이후 경기침체 진입 예상. 미국은 부채와 소비에 기대는 구조라 제조업도 실제로는 조립 위주라고 비판. 자산 조언: 금 등 실물 금属 매수 권장. 채권은 스태그플레이션 환경에서 하락, 금리 상승 전망. 출연자 전망 요약: 주식 하락(약 20%), 금리 인하 후 양적완화 재개, 달러 약세와 인플레이션 가속, 금 상승 기대.
다듬은 글
thanks for choosing Gold sitcom radio as a trusted business and investing news source welcome back Peter Schiff hey Chris how are you good we are hearing talk that maybe US equities have reached a pinnacle topped out after one of the most stunning rallies and years early part of 2019 what's going on well I think so I mean I said on my on my podcast at the beginning of May time the first day of May I did a podcast and that was a day where the Fed came out and disappointed the markets and wasn't his dovish as the markets had been expecting and so I thought that was a key moment the market sold off a little but at that time I said I think the bear market rally is over actually the bear market rally was more substantial than I then I thought I called the rally as soon as the Fed did the reversal on monetary policy I called the rally in fact I called the rally before the Fed reverse because I knew the Fed was going to reverse and I said that when the Fed reversed and took the rate hikes off the table that the markets would rally I just did not think the rally would be as strong because some of the indexes actually made new highs and normally a bear market rally can't do that but this one did I mean it was a very vicious bear market rally but it ended I think on May 1st and then I reiterated that call the following week on a couple of podcasts when Donald Trump basically pulled the rug out from under the markets by escalating the trade war when he put out those tweets that he was about to hit you know more Chinese products with 25% tariffs the market started to go down if I'd to Dallas down maybe 6% now since the beginning of May and so I guess a lot of people will probably wish they sold in May and went away but they you know they didn't understand how big the problem is nor do they understand I think I said initially on my podcast after Trump's tweets when the Dow was down about six hundred points that one day entered you know it didn't close down 600 to close down maybe 400 or something but it was Dow 600 people thought it was an overreaction I thought that the markets were under reacting that if people really understood how bad the situation was we would be down 6,000 points not 600 just look back I mean historically the markets have been pretty strong in the beginning of the year and seasonally the markets do have a tendency to sell off in the summertime generally the time to come back has been you know October time frame you know sometimes we get some big sell-off September October and then you usually get a year in rally but I think the summer is usually historically not always of course you know it doesn't always work sometimes you know the markets keep going up and and selling in May hasn't worked out well over the last many years because we've been this is the biggest bull market we've ever had as far as duration and so I guess you don't people who were expecting it to die easily we're disappointed I mean they you know this market has been hard to kill do you think it's dead you know and I think the bolt the bear market is not alive and well people thought it was over when you know the markets rallied but you know that's what bear market rallies do they convince people that it's not a bear market ok so you're convinced then that we're looking at something similar let's go back 10 years 2008-2009 as the market was topping around 2007 did the good wouldn't you agree 18 months before we had the brutal sell-off do you see more sideways sign wave action until that occur well I think I think the markets headed lower I mean maybe the announcement of some kind of a trade deal could cause a rally but at this point I wouldn't think yet then I don't think the markets low enough but I think that we're gonna go back down to where we stopped last time you know to you know down approximately 20 percent from the highs in the Dow and the S&P that is when the Fed did the about-face and so the next thing the Fed is going to do is actually cut rates so they haven't done that yet all they've done is take the rate hikes off the table but they haven't cut rates and that's going to be their next move most likely that and potentially you know ending the quantitative tiding program of course it will be followed by the return to quantitative easing all that is coming the only question mark is will it come incrementally or all at once and you know there's no way to know but even if they start incrementally that will produce a large enough rally and of course the economy is heading into recession I mean everybody you know bought into the head-fake of that 3.2 percent GDP number that we got for q1 which surprised everybody but if you really look at that number there are a lot of one-off effects that really need to be you know pulled out to get a better handle on what was going on in the first quarter it was not an economy growing a 3.2 percent much less than that and I think we're gonna see a big get back in the second quarter and so when you average the first half the year now we can end up you know with an average rate of below 2% and you know we're going down from there we backtrack to you know the beginning of this is the last QE you know operation we started off with about five hundred million dollars on the Fed's balance sheet approximately we haven't rung that xs3 almost three trillion dollars we're in an unusual position here that we've never really seen in history the Fed for years was lying that they would return the balance sheet to the levels it was at before the crisis and that as you said was under a trillion dollars well you know they were at four and a half trillion now we're just below four trillion were three point nine something and they're almost done with the wind out and so they didn't get anywhere near where they started I mean the balance sheet was you know barely declined you know maybe 10 15 percent or whatever it is 20% decline max and then they're gonna wrap it up again and they're gonna go well about four and a half trillion I mean they're gonna take the balance sheet you know the to infinity and beyond because I think that's implied isn't it when you don't return to your starting point it's almost a facto baked into the cake eventual runaway prices this is debt monetization this is exactly what Ben Bernanke denied the Fed was doing he lied to Congress and ice pointed that lie out at the time that he said it and the markets still haven't called the Fed out on this and the idea that this is not a permanent increase in the size of the balance sheet that means the Federal Reserve is monetizing US government debt it is taking the debt and turning it into money it is buying up the bonds and printing Federal Reserve notes that are never going to be withdrawn from circulation this is how banana republics finance government this is exactly what we told the markets we weren't going to do but this is exactly what we're doing and and and this is a you know a disastrous course which means endless money printing and it also means that there's no way the Fed doesn't have a mechanism for draining liquidity you know as inflation starts to really accelerate they can't do anything about it and sell these bonds that are permanently part of their portfolio we need to qualify don't we when we say they don't have a mechanism for draining liquidity what I think you mean is their faulty they don't have the power that they had in the past to divest those securities they were if they had if they had the power to do it they would have done it they can't they had to stop it I mean yes in theory they can sell the Treasuries to buy back that their their the dollars the Federal Reserve notes but they won't do it because the economy would implode the banks would fail I mean the government would be forced to default on its debt I mean that this is the box that the Federal Reserve has you know put us into by subsidizing government by making it possible for government to get bigger and bigger and bigger and to fund ever-increasing deficits they put us at the situation where the currency itself is in jeopardy because there is now so much debt that the choices are ominous either a complete collapse of this entire bubble with massive losses on a scale much greater than anything seen in 2008 with nobody getting bailed out or they destroy the currency and you know we're like Argentina and you know the dollar just you know just because of an awfully money that that's where we're at I mean there is no graceful way out of this we have two potential disasters one is just worse than the other I'm glad you brought up Argentina according to our guest last week professor Kotlikoff Argentina had one of the if not the highest at one point highest per capita standards of living before they devalued and destroyed their currency what do you say to our listeners who are scratching their heads everything Peter's saying is right on paper but you know the u.s.
still is the strongest manufacturing nation even bigger than Europe as far as that's concerned and only China coming close to rivaling its manufacturing power you know we have the biggest trade deficit in manufactured goods so you know so we're we're a large country and we need to manufacture something but the problem is we don't manufacture nearly enough and a lot of the stuff that we do count as being manufactured here is really just assembled here because we import a lot of the components I used easy example of Callaway golf clubs which others say oh we may we manufacturing Callaway golf clubs in the United States well we we import the the shaft we mill input import the grip and we import the head so all we do here is you know attach them to each other so could we really make that golf club without importing all that stuff just because it counts as being being made here so a lot of the numbers overestimate how much we're actually manufacturing versus what we're simply assembly we don't have the the savings we don't make the capital investments we have built this country on on debt and consumption and imports and the reason that you know people think that our economy is strong is because we're able to continue to go deeper into debt to spend more borrowed money and so you know if you have somebody who's out there and he's spending on credit cards and living it up and driving a flashy car and eating in restaurants and travel around you may not know that this person is broke that they have no job and they're just going deeper into debt but if they could keep on getting another credit card and increasing their there their limits they can fool you for longer and that's what's happening with America when people look at the US economy and they think it's so strong it's simply because we're able to continue to borrow money that we have no ability to repay and the people still lend it to us so that you can't confuse that just because we keep on shopping it doesn't mean we have a strong economy it just means the bubble is getting bigger and bigger bigger but eventually it's going to pop and by the time it does you know obviously by then it's too late to do anything about I mean I see a lot of similarities between asset bubbles today in the year 2000 can you tell people your thoughts on the likelihood that now that the Fed Funds futures at the Chicago Merc or eight cut cycle as soon as December of this year or January next year do you see any chance that this reaction and US equities might lead to higher hives an extended bull rally as Fed officials and policy makers try to prop up in the economy obviously it's possible that the market can meet new highs and we're not even that far from the highs maybe five six percent or whatever we are so it's certainly possible but I don't think that the Fed is going to be able to reflect the bubble by going back to the QE policies I mean first of all they're going to have to go to zero on rates it's not like you know a little bit of a you know cot but even going to zero it's only 200 basis points or so of cuts so that's not nearly as much as they used to reflate the last bubble and generally each time you you bubble pops they need a much bigger one to replace it so they're not going to be able to create a bigger bubble with just 200 basis points of rate cuts so where they're gonna have to put in the extra umph is going to be in the size of the QE program which instead of being 85 billion a month which is what we had in QE 3 we could end up with 2 or 300 billion dollars a month in money printing but there also may be a different mechanism where that money may not be entering the economy through the stock market the way it did before I mean they may be just giving it directly to individuals in government government programs who knows how this quantitative easing is going to filter through in the economy but I do think it's going to be very inflationary not for asset prices next but for consumer prices you know the dollar is at an all-time high really or close to it the trade weighted dollar index it was at an all-time low when the Fed launched QE 1 so when the Fed started QE before the dollar was very low and it rose and that helped keep prices in check but this time the dollar is very high and I think when they launched QE it's going to tank and if you look at the trajectory of consumer prices and even the way the government measures them we have been creeping higher and higher and higher and I think that's going to accelerate and that's going to rain on this parade when you really start to see stagflation I mean this is not the environment that we're used to everybody is used to the wind oh and the economy weakens then inflation pulls back and bonds rally and their safety and bonds and that acts as a stabilizer to the economy because we're so deeply in debt but every time there's a recession debtors get relief because the rates go down but if we get a recession where the markets turn up the heat on debtors because we end up with inflation and recession simultaneously and so bonds don't rally bonds go down and then interest rates rise imagine how much weaker the next recession is going to be when consumers are faced with rising interest rates not falling interest rates and when the cost of living is going up not you know remaining stable so this is going to be you know a disaster of epic proportions people should be buying physical gold I mean obviously Schiff goal.com is the best place to buy it I mean we're worth and sales have been very weak all over the whole world which is another great contrarian indicator thanks so much ok shopping for fine jewelry just got easier gold c-calm has identified the most successful jewelry brand the launch in recent times many jewelry is rewriting away consumers by fine jewelry integrity craftsmanship the only company to sell 24 karat gold and platinum jewelry avoiding confusing alloys and gems a true precious metals 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