저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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결론: AMD는 성장 기업이며 30~40달러 이하라면 매수해도 괜찮다는 입장이다. 실적: 2019년 3분기 EPS 0.08달러(예상 부합), 매출 15.3억 달러로 예상을 소폭 상회했다. 매출 구성: 컴퓨팅·그래픽 매출이 전체의 약 2/3, 엔터프라이즈·임베디드·세미커스텀이 약 1/3이지만, 영업이익은 후자가 대부분을 차지한다. 재고: 원자재는 6개월 전 1억 3,400만 달러에서 1억 2,500만 달러로 감소, 재공품은 증가, 완제품은 3억 5,700만 달러에서 2억 1,700만 달러로 감소해 출하가 진행 중이라고 해석했다. 제품·파트너: 신형 CPU·GPU·데이터센터 CPU 출시, 노트북 제조사 40여 곳 신규 프로세서 채택, 아마존 에픽 프로세서 확대, 마이크로소프트·소니 차세대 게임기 공급, 삼성·애플과 전략적 제휴를 긍정적으로 평가했다. 세부 실적: 엔터프라이즈 부문 매출은 전년 대비 12% 감소했으나 에픽 서버 판매 증가로 영업이익은 8,900만 달러로 늘었다. 컴퓨팅·그래픽 부문 매출은 30% 감소, 영업이익은 2,200만 달러(전년 1억 1,700만 달러)로 줄었다. 비용·수익성: R&D비용은 전년 대비 4,600만 달러 증가, 주식보상비용 증가는 부정적으로 봤다. 매출총이익률은 37%에서 41%로 상승했다. 주주환원: 배당·자사주 매입이 없고 주식 희석이 진행 중이라 부정적으로 평가했다. 현금·부채: 현금 약 11억 달러, 부채 상환 여력이 거의 충분하며 주요 만기는 2026년(약 8억 500만 달러)이다. 리스크: 인텔·엔비디아의 신제품, 보안 취약점, 중국 경기 둔화를 꼽았다. 전망: 2019년 예상 EPS 0.62달러, 2020년 1.04달러, 매출은 2019년 67.5억 달러, 2020년 84.1억 달러로 성장 전망. 회사 가이던스(중간 한 자릿수 성장)는 보수적으로 보며 컨센서스를 웃돌 것으로 봤다. 매수 적정가는 30~40달러로 제시했고, 당시 주가는 약 29~30달러로 추정했다. 출연자 전망: 주식 상승 쪽에 가까운 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome to another episode of my name's Jose Nahar oh and like always I have my buddy start bear and bull solo ready to keep track today we are gonna take a look at AMD's earnings for quarter 3 and this is gonna be the beginning of the semiconductor episode last series was the video game series this time we're gonna take a look at semiconductors so I'm definitely gonna take a look at AMD Intel and NVIDIA so let's get started so all the information that I found here comes from AMD's investors website I also took a look at sinking alpha to take a look at their transcript of the earnings call and I obviously went through the 10 Q report so right off the bat the first thing we're gonna take a look at is revenue and revenue here everything's was July 30 of 2019 earnings per share were 8 cents it beat by zero cents it met expectations revenue was one point fifty three billion dollars everything you did have a surprise beat of seven point six million dollars it did meet earnings per share x' results and it actually be revenue surprised by a bit so for that reason we're going to give the first point to bull solo to start off the game Thanks we're gonna take a look at revenue breakdown and here we just want to see how this revenue that it collected is broken down in theory we don't want to see revenue to be all focused in one sector of the company because if that sector goes bad on the rest of the company can go bad so here we can see AMD is pretty much broken down into two categories versus computing and graphics and then computing and graphics for those that don't know this is where their GPU and their CPU servers CPUs are at next they have the enterprise embedded and semi customs and here's where they have the epic server which is the huge server CPUs and they have the semi custom semiconductors so here you also see stuff for PlayStation 4 Xbox 360 and any generation custom chips that they do will be found here so we can see that revenue a huge portion of that revenue comes from computing and graphics the net revenue this quarter collected nine hundred and forty billion dollars enterprise and better and semi-custom collected almost six hundred billion dollars five hundred and ninety one million dollars but even though it has revenue here you can see he's broke it down two-thirds comes from computer and graphics and about one-third comes from enterprise and bedded and semi customs but operating income so this is the income pumps a more from enterprise embedded and semi customs that's one thing one thing to take a look at right so even though a huge portion of the net revenue comes from computing and graphics we see that a majority of the operating income does come from enterprise and better and semi-custom so I do like this breakdown even though computing graphics contains such a high net revenue we can see that it's not a big portion of the company we can see that the company even with six hundred billion dollars of net revenue and semi-custom it can still produce a lot more operating income so I do definitely like this revenue breakdown and for that recent rule solo gets another point legs we're gonna take a look at just some something on how their inventory is looking so this is inventory from June 29 2009 teen which was recorded 3 and then from December 29th thousand 18 so right now the company is sitting in about a hundred and twenty five million dollars of raw material the company's same time six months ago was sitting at one hundred and thirty four million in raw material so I definitely like that raw materials went down that means this company is producing materials and it's not wasting it's not wasting away so I definitely like to see I dropped down in that work in Prague and process so this is inventory that's being made at the moment where can process six months ago was three hundred and fifty four million work and process right now is six hundred and seventy three billion dollars worth of inventory and that to me is pretty also pretty good right we def this working process means that this company is trying to stock up for something big it's most likely the holiday season that's coming up soon so they're definitely stocking up pretty big on items finish goods is the next one and finish good this this quarter is sitting these past six months is sitting at two hundred and seventeen million dollars compared to December 29 2008 which was sitting at three hundred and fifty seven million dollars that's that's also pretty good right this company has sold off is finished good it has less finished goods than it did in December twenty nine 2018 and that to me means one thing that this company is selling its inventory so even though the total worth of inventory is worth more now than it is then they do have less finished goods so that means material is being so they have less raw material so that means they are making broad products with their materials and they have such a huge amount of work and process so this company is definitely stocking up to next let's talk about some of the products here here we're just talking about what the company has done this quarter as we can see they did with these a bunch of products this past quarter they released the new CPUs you GPUs and new data center CPUs if also released their new sent to CPU core which is better than their previous architecture the added over forty new consumer and commercial rice and mobile processors from leading OEMs here today so that to me is always good news I remember about two years ago you would not find a laptop with ricin or AMD or AMD CPU and now you go to Best Buy you go to Amazon and it's pretty it's you start to see them more frequently so that's definitely great news amazon expanded availability of their epic processor in more than 15 regions might they did have some good stuff with Microsoft they introduced the new architecture gaming architectures for their bloom console and cloud gaming they announced a multi-year strategic partnership with Samsung and Apple announced Radeon Pro Vega so we can see there's a lot of good news and like oh and also a empty will power back to back game consoles for Microsoft Sony so these are some great things that happen in the quarter - and it's always good to see some big names right we see so and we see Microsoft we see Apple we see Amazon we see over 40 new consumers from leading OEMs so this is aces Dell HP so this is definitely great news for AMD and I'm liking how the company is going on further next we did take a look at the revenue breakdown and now I want to take a look closer into what the company is doing within these these revenues so the first thing we're going to take a look at enterprise embedded and semi customs and here the main thing that the main thing here that we're going to talk about is the epic server so the epic servers are the are the data the huge data center CPUs the first thing net revenue for this past three months was 591 billion dollars it was a decreased 12% compared at the same time last year 12 percent it's definitely a huge in their revenue so the main reason for this decrease is because of just lower sales that's that's pretty much it but it was partially offset by higher sales of their epic server processor and that's definitely a good thing to know operating income was 89 million for the three months and for this quarter and compared to operating income of 69 million the prior year the improvements in operating income was again due to higher epic Server processor sales and it was partially offset by higher operating expenses so we can see that the semi cut the epic server processor is definitely doing pretty good for the company we can see there was definitely a decrease in revenue by 12 percent and that's not something we'd like to see next we're gonna take a look at computing a graphics computing and graphics net revenue was 940 million for this quarter and it was a decrease of 30% compared to the same time last quarter so this is another but both sectors did see a decrease of loads of low double digits last was twelve percent and this one was thirteen percent the mainly sold for the lower revenue was just lower graphics gen arm sales but it was partially offset by a five percent increase in average selling price so here right they're just pretty much saying that this huge this this revenue drop was mainly because they did have lower sales especially in the CPU sales because it there was a decline in blocking related demand but they did see an increase in average selling price of their Rice's and processes which have a higher gross profit margin so that's good that's definitely something to keep track of computing graphics and operating income was 22 million for for this quarter compared to 117 million dollars of same time last year so we can see operating income was so low this time compared at same time last year and it was primarily driven by lower sales and also they do have higher operating expenses all right I did talk about that I did like the revenue breakdown of the company how the company is not all focused in one sector alone and we gave also local point in this one we see that both those sectors did see a decrease in sales and for that reason we are gonna give a point to Darth bear this is the first point per third bear and we see that this is it's definitely not good to see a decrease in revenue and both sectors next I just want to take a look at some updates on what this company is using its money research and development expenses for the company was 746 million dollars for this past six months ended June 29th so from January to June 29th it did increase by 46 million compared to the same time last year and this increase was due to product development in both sectors so that's definitely good to see I definitely like to see that a company is increasing through research there d right aren t is such an important part to maintain to keep the company intact and we see that the company that AMD has increased the amount of money they are spending in R&D and that's definitely produced the second reason for that the for this expense is pretty weird as well as increase our base compensation expense so there's definitely this is something that I don't like to see and it's something to keep track that this company is using more money for stock based compensation expense gross margin was 41% for the six months compared to 37% the prior year so that's definitely a great news to seeing gross margin such a huge jump of for 400 basis point for that and they say that the this is primarily driven by higher sales of ricin and the epic processor they both have higher gross margins than the corporate average so that's again great news we are seeing that gross margin increase next we're gonna take a look at shareholder return this company has no buybacks or no dividends this egg company is actually diluting some few shares we're gonna see in a bit that this company does have it does increase the amount of shares over over over the quarters but usually a growing stock usually does this it beter it has no shareholder return and it usually does have a selling it does sell some some more shares and dilutes more share and that's that's what you end up seeing this so for this I'm not giving a point to either Darth bear or bull solo alright so next we're gonna take a look at cash and here the total cash this company maintains a healthy 1 billion dollars worth of cash in it it definitely has maintained that for the past few quarters as we can see here right now sitting at one point 1 billion million dollar one point 1 billion dollars in cash and used 70 million in the past in this past quarter to pay off asset back loans so this company definitely it passed a healthy amount of cash next let's take a look at that this company definitely is paying off is that over time and that's definitely a great thing to see right now the company sitting at one point to almost one point three billion dollars of that and this company almost has enough total cash to pay off its total debt and that's pretty impressive I mean if we take a look at quarter three 2017 this story would be a little bit different but now quarter to 2019 is definitely a whole different story now it seems to be a one-to-one ratio went back then it was almost a 2 to R 1 to 2 ratio so here we can see that that and its timeline but that's the next time this company owes any money is in 2022 followed by 2024 and the next one is 2026 and that makes that 2026 is where most of the tech comes off at eight hundred and five million dollars that's about 70 percent of the total debt and that one is only a two point one two five interest convertible senior notes there's great great news this company has no debt to pay off until until 2022 and that's such a long time for that so for that Paul solo gets another point this company has good cash is paying off it has a nice cash to debt ratio and today it's not due for a long time from now finally these are some bad things that we need to consider right these are things that could happen and it's always the risk of investing with AMD these are the most important things and what I believe right the biggest thing is what if Intel has the secret CPU cooking up whatever nvidia has a secret GPU what if one of the rises or their epic processors becomes a target of some form of virus or malware what if slow down and China continue so all these are pretty much the dark side of this company and if any of these happen it can definitely hurt the company in the long run Thanks we're gonna take a look at the outlook based on analysis and this right here we can see that the company is a growing company we can see for December 2019 this company is estimated to make 62 cents per share and that would give the company a forward p/e ratio about 50 point 85 on this on the following year of 2020 this company is Esteve to make a dollar and four cents that is actually a huge jump compared to the 60 cents we can see that forward p/e ratio drops all the way down to 30 to 34 cents and we can see even from revenue this year the company is expected to make six point seventy five billion dollars of revenue and next year is expected to make eight point four one billion dollars of revenue a huge jump in revenue and we can see that this is definitely a growing company just in perspective right previous revenue this past year's 2018 was six point four seven billion dollars and 2017 was five point twenty five billion dollars remember 2018 was a huge market jump because of the blotching sales and that did slow down so it's impressive that this company is still actually going to make more sales this quarter this year than last year even though that last year it had helped with the blockchain so based on this analysis the company is growing poor p/e ratio is decreasing for that reason we are gonna give a point to bore solo next we're gonna take a look at Outlook based on the company this is coming from their slide show and they are assuming they say up they are assuming revenue to be up bid single-digit percentage for year to year so mid-single digits for me means somewhere between five to seven percent I'm going into long in the Lone Ranger I'm gonna assume that this company is gonna make a five percent growth compared to past revenue so a five percent growth would make this company have a revenue of six point seven nine billion dollars if we take a look at analysis they say this company will make about six point seven five billion dollars this company is actually pretty much intact but I do believe that we are going to see a beat on revenue when compared to analysis right this company a company usually tends to go a little more conservative and for them to be giving five percent amid thumb mid-single digits at five percent would already be beating analysis then that to me it gives me good a good feeling for for how the company is gonna do for the year so for that point for that reason another point for Bulls solo so what would I value it at now this depends on the type of investment that you are with my background I tend to like semiconductor companies the most because this is where most of my knowledge from school comes from and for that reason I I feel like I understand what's going on with this company a little bit better and as I know AMD is definitely a growing company we see that it went from making milk from actually burning money to making no money to now is showing small profits that to me is the is the definition of a growing company and based on everything we saw we saw all those big means being called out in what the company is doing we're seeing the huge increase in sales in epic servers I definitely remember all the things we saw in the dark side slide and throws her things that one always needs to be to keep ahead on so even with all that I would definitely be happy paid a 30 or 40 people on the company based on the earnings per share for 2020 so 2020 had an earnings per share of $1 and 40s and dollar and four cents which would mean that anything around thirty or forty forty dollars would be okay for me to buy this company and luckily right now is sitting at way below that price I think right now it might be sitting at twenty nine twenty twenty-nine dollars maybe low thirties so for me AMD is definitely looking pretty good to buy but this is not just about AMD we're gonna take a look at all the other semiconductors but AMD is definitely a company I I would invest in AMD is definitely a company that is looking good to invest in so I hope you guys enjoyed the episode let me know what you guys think post on the comments give me a thumbs up don't forget to subscribe like I said the next few episodes aren't going to be based on the semi semiconductor world so we're gonna take a look at Nvidia we're gonna also take a look at Intel we might take a look at some of the other ones TSM and when are what other I definitely have a few more that we can take a look at so post in the comments which ones you want me to take a look at take care guys have a good night and see you next time
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