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please I think the two things you need to be do to be successful yes you have to come up with the best decisions and you have to cut the courage to make them yes and I think the real problem about most people with the best decisions is that they think it's in their heads and most people tragically are attached to opinions in the heads and they don't put them out and stress test them so the thing that I learned was really to take those ideas put them out there in a certain way and stress test them whatever success I've had in life has what had more to mind knowing how to deal with my not knowing yes then anything I know and that taught me a lot more and it taught me how to take in what others have and that was you know a key thing so this is wearily about how to do that well you know let's talk about how that came about for you because I think you know when you when I went around and interviewed people when you've watched somebody on CNBC everybody else and markets going if I can tell you with absolute certainty right and the one I interviewed the best investors on earth you've obviously been one of the top there's this not only humility it's not like a false immunity of like I don't know if I'm right and I have to prepare I have to have an asset location that I'm wrong imma still gonna do well it's a different mindset but tell me it really came from failure that you looked at this because you were somewhat you know proud and maybe your own description was arrogant at one point let's let's go back early on you know early days you've got in the commodities business and I know you were trading your own accounts and you had some experience of a pork bellies that got your attention and then you told me when we first met about when we went off the gold standard and how wrong you were tell me about those two situations and how do they inform or change your mindset to say no matter how certain I am I'm gonna stress this test with people that are smart but have a different point of view that I do well you know in the market to know to beat the markets you have to have an independent point of view and that's different from the consensus because the consensus is built into the price and you've got to be right and you're going to be wrong a fair amount of and therefore I learned just what you said the power of mistakes yes however learning of mistakes and so there's the porkbelly example of course that was one of those that I wrote about in the book and then there was the gold standard and I walk I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange 1971 the US the world doesn't take our money anymore and President Nixon gets on the television and he says that the link to gold is broken and what that meant at the time is that money as we thought about it was just like checks in a checkbook and what mattered was the money that was in the bank the gold that was the gold yeah and though all of a sudden that stopped and I thought that the stocks so basically the money has attached to nothing it's what it is today and ever he's got used to but then this all of a sudden it's worth nothing I used to turn it in and giggle my journey to get zero right and I walked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I'm stock market was gonna go down and it went up okay and and what I realized then that when I went back and I studied history that although it never happened in my lifetime before it happened before and so the greatest surprises that I learned about are things that never happened in our lifetimes before yes but they happened before everything has happened before everything is repeat echo so that but the one that had the biggest effect on me was 1982 I want to talk about that okay 1982 okay I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot of money to a bunch of countries that would not be able to pay back Latin American and emerging countries that couldn't pay back and it was a sort of a crazy point of view but Mexico defaulted you're right about that part right about that part you're not right if you're not making money in the market okay so they default August 19 August 1982 and I thought the stock market's gonna go down and the stock market went up because that reserve these things changes and whatever and I learned okay so I was it was if you didn't just miss you were like publicly humiliated you what happened you had company at the time you have you lost all your toes I had to lose I lost all the people who work for me I had to let it lie to you like family yes and then I you know the story I'm interrupting I don't mean to no no but but but right you it's in the book so I lost all these people I cared about I was very publicly wrong and how employees were left when you were done me so I had to make a choice am I gonna put on a tie and go to world Wall Street and do have a job or not and I'd to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help pay for my family bills
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