저자: RayDalio/진행:TonyRobbins · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상에는 대상 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언이 없으며, 주로 분산투자 원칙과 장기 투자 철학을 다룬다. 주제 1 - 분산투자(All Weather 전략): 달리오는 서로 상관관계가 낮은 자산을 균형 있게 담으면 기대수익은 유지하면서 위험을 줄일 수 있다고 설명한다. 이 전략은 75년간 약 85%의 기간에서 수익을 냈고, 최대 손실은 4% 수준이었다고 언급한다. 주제 2 - 시장 예측의 한계: 시장은 제로섬이며 가격에는 이미 컨센서스가 반영되어 있어 시장을 이기기는 매우 어렵다고 한다. 달리오는 이를 올림픽 경쟁보다 어렵다고 표현하며 겸손할 것을 강조한다. 주제 3 - 리스크 관리: 개별 투자 자산은 생애 중 50~75% 하락할 수 있으며, 50% 하락 후 원금 회복에는 100% 상승이 필요하다고 지적한다. 따라서 하락폭 제한이 장기 복리에 중요하다고 강조한다. 주제 4 - 원칙의 중요성: 달리오는 현실을 받아들이고 자신만의 원칙을 세워 실행하는 것이 핵심이라고 말한다. 각자의 원칙을 기록하고 공유하는 것을 권장한다. 주제 5 - 출연자 전망: 시장이 8년 반째 강세장이며 과거 조정이 반복되었음을 언급하지만, 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 전망은 제시하지 않는다. 시장 조정에 과도하게 반응하지 말 것을 조언한다. 주제 6 - 언급 종목: 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 구체적 방향성 발언은 없다.
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investing just for a moment we're eight and a half years into this bull market you've given us an idea where we think we are and yet you told us what some of the challenges are when there is a crutch and there's a correction every year people don't realize on average since you know since 1900 we have a correction a number of last year in January is the worst January in history but he's freaking out they all came to you at CNBC and said you're in Davos and what do we do and you know you talk to him about calm down don't overreact tell me how you came up I want to go through it now because at the time it's it's in my books to be able to read the chapters but this whole idea of finding out how you can not know where the markets are gonna go and yet still win this idea of the all-weather that you came up with and you adapted it for me to share you're unbelievably generous with my readers and with anybody picked it up you know we call it you know the All Seasons it's not quite the same but it's been right 85% of the time you had made money in the last 75 years and and when you lose the most that's ever lost is 4% on that formula how did you come up with it what made you pursue that and what would you say to people that are panicking the market seemed to crash any moment and they've been sitting on the sidelines missing one of the greatest bull markets in history I'm going to give the brief answer and then which is that diversification properly properly balancing means that you could take equally good things and you can reduce the risk and because really it was I just want to clarify you said that the holy grail of investing you found early on change your career and it was how you could reduce your risk but not roost and reduce your returns how do I do that by knowing how to balance okay when you can take equally good things yes they're equally good so your expectation of return is equal right but because they're uncorrelated because they move differently they balance each other so well right and I would love to get into it but you know I'll just repeat what you did is provide a great service it's in your book yes so anybody who reads that book has taken the time and you've put it in a language that everybody can understand in a way that we won't have the time to go through now so it was great for me and great for you and great for those people that we could communicate how they could achieve that balance it's so important because you have to understand that in order to beat somebody it's the market is a zero-sum in adding values that's right yeah and again and so the consensus is reflected in the price and so you have to be better than that I put hundreds of millions of dollars each year in trying to play that game well and others do and it's a difficult game it's more difficult to compete in the markets and be successful than to compete in the Olympics so be humble about that it's difficult but to achieve that balance so that you understand how you can get that good return without losing a lot of money is that is something you've communicated it well so I would rather than be able to cover it recommend that they look at your book that but you're all your person lost of my money is in that is it that that's just truly amazing in people you can go on you can go pick up a book or go to library whatever and get the answer cuz you or you you walked us through it we did it in two chapters of the book and it's mind boggling I mean if you go to Vegas let me write 85% the time and make close to 10% on average and when you're wrong the most you ever lost is 4% how often would you invest well that every game right yeah the risk of ruined yes is so diminished yes you know it depends exactly how you construct that in terms of what your risk in return is so it's explained there but you the risk of ruin like you know any one investment there will come a time in your lifetime that it's going to be down 50 to 75 percent yeah and when it's down 50 or 75 percent it's down 50 percent that means you have to make a hundred percent in order to get back on you so you can't afford those positive later in life you right I'm right all right yeah so this is really the way to protect themselves so many people get great returns but then they also slash at the bottom and but they're not losing money these are good returns yeah these are great returns but you're you're limiting the downside massively what we're out of time now so on the last piece is there anything we've covered we have what's the core message you want people to lean with whether they're an entrepreneur and investor or just somebody wants to improve their life what would you say that corpse well most of you know most importantly have their print principles that deal with reality yes well embrace reality and deal with it and have those core principles and get them wherever they can as you know what I want to do is I want to get your principles I've listened to a lot but if everybody took the time to write down their principles yes and to think about each other's principles for how to deal with specific things not this big high-level principles but in other words the specific okay I have somebody who is cheating in my company what do I do or I have the banker who was doing this thing what do I do well so the best team I mean right here well that's why I've been through those experiences and I wrote down my residents they can consider my recipes they can consider anybody else's recipes at the end of the day they must believe them what is good for them and they must have principles because as you say if you're not if you don't have principles everything looks the same like you're in a blizzard when you start to think of something and you say oh it's another one of those like you think of a certain type of species it's that species and here is how I deal with that species and that way of dealing with it works that is an effective way of operating so I would like to encourage people to have their own principles that they understand and believe in wherever they get them I spend my whole life basically pulling principles not of people I wrote money master the game and I came to your I met you was saying I gotta find the best people the world it can't be my ideas I have my own ideas on the psychological emotional side I don't the best investors in the world let's figure out what the principles that are guiding them and let's teach them to the average American so that's really what Donna you've been so generous ray I consider you a dear friend now I love you personally and I hope people here not only get to see this unbelievable you know historic figure here but I want them to feel man and your true passion and caring for people and the commitment that you have to leave a legacy where people can continue to grow and expand beyond the time that you're here this book is part of that legacy you're gonna write another one I understand is that true on economic and investment Princeton yeah and then I'll be done yes because everything that I have to say can be in here I don't gives you leverage it's it's in there I don't have anything to add I just I hope my grad kids will read it when they get older I'm sure they will and Tony what I want to say that that's we share the same type of values the same type of principles and that's why I you know like you know back at you man thank you thank you very much thank you so much god bless ya so pick it up principal's life and work by Ray Dalio this week also check out on YouTube the Machine how do you say they look the phrase now the economic machine works and then his TED talk as well and I'll put those out over the next few days as well pass it on everybody go grab this book as quick as you can it's a great read it'll give you a history it'll give your principles it'll change your life last thing to everybody we'll see you soon
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