Ray Dalio: A Simple Tip For Investing Many Don’t Understand

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결론: 투자 성공은 컨센서스에 반해 베팅하고 그것이 맞아야 가능하다. 핵심 논리: 자산 가격에는 이미 시장 컨센서스가 반영되어 있어, 누구나 아는 정보로 사면 초과수익을 얻기 어렵다. 비유: 컨센서스에 베팅하는 것은 모두가 아는 정보로 스포츠 팀에 거는 것과 같아 이길 수 없다. 사례: 과거 Dalio 본인이 10대 때 주식을 사서 3배가 되었을 때 쉽다고 생각했지만, 실제로는 매우 어렵다는 점을 강조했다. 경쟁 환경: 효율적이고 투명한 시장에서 지속적으로 이기는 것은 매우 어렵고, 헤지펀드가 꾸준히 시장을 이긴다고 약속하는 것은 거짓말이다. 비교: 시장에서 성공하는 것은 올림픽 출전보다 어렵다는 의견이 나오며, 올림픽은 자원과 참가자가 많지만 시장은 샤크들이 있는 포커 게임과 같다. 현실적 목표: 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 유지해 현금보다 나은 수익을 얻는 것이 현실적이며, 이는 알파(초과수익) 추구와 관련된다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 언급되지 않았다.

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01. said something else about investing and I think it's very profound and simple I think a lot of people don't understand which is to be successful as an investor you have to bet against the consensus and be right first of all why well if it was that easy to just bet with the consensus every single time then everyone would be doing it it should be self-evident that in order to win you have to do something that the average person doesn't know or doesn't get and that's the consensus in the price of anything is already reflected in the consensus view of it why can't we just buy stocks we think well the code the consensus is built into the price so because the consensus is built in the price and assets priced themselves in a way that they're all they're all compete and they're all of equal value in certain sense there's there's a risk premium of equities over cash and bonds we'll have that over whatever but it's basically they're all priced that way so the consensus view of anything stocks bonds whatever asset is already reflected in the market price so another way to think about it is if there's a report that comes out tomorrow and all these scientists and the community form a consensus view that there will be no more oil ever produced or ever drilled and that we've already extracted all the oil out in the world then the price of oil will be reflected in that consensus view and if you know something that the market doesn't if you know a hidden stash of oil somewhere that would be the case where you bet against the consensus because the market and a consensus view does not already reflect that in the market price and that's a time for you to make money if you know a secret that the market in the consensus does not know so I think of it as going to betting on a sports team or in other words you or a horse-racing okay so there's handicapping that's going on so in order to be successful you're betting against the consensus and you have to be right that's that's the game well that's always kind of been the game in throughout all of history you have to know something that the average person does not know and that's how you make money and you describe your first trade when you're a teenager bought a stock it tripled you thought hey this is easy but you convey very effectively that in fact it is extremely difficult even though it seems so simple oh yeah it's one of the hardest things to do it's very hard to compete in a very efficient and transparent market for the most part and remain a winner all the time so anyone who convinces you that they can consistently beat the market in hedge funds all the time are promising you crazy returns is just flat-out lying being successful in the markets is more difficult than being successful in competing in the Olympics your odds are higher to be successful competing in the Olympics because you have more people trying to do it you have more resources we put hundreds of millions of dollars we have at Bridgewater 15-under people we are now competing against other teams and that's the kind of resources that are going into playing that particular game I'm not sure that's entirely true the Olympics may be harder just because you only have one chance and no room for error whereas in hedge funds you still have a bit of room for a little bit of error so think about that in terms of handicapping it it's not an easy thing to do what you can do is achieve balance you can you can to know how to hold a balanced portfolio and to receive something that is a return that's much better than cash achieving balance he's most likely referring to alpha here which is the excess returns above what the market returns is something that you can do and and I think that that but it figure if you're going to enter the game since Value Added is a zero-sum game you have to ask who are you playing against what is you don't in the poker game with and you know do you want to do that that's right it's one big poker game where the people you're playing against are sharp they're sharks they have a lot of resources a lot of time they're all intelligent and you have to beat all of them