저자: 미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아(NVDA)는 강한 상승 추세 속에서 현재 조정을 거치고 있으며, 발언자는 단기 매매보다 스윙·장기 보유 관점에서 우상향을 기대한다고 밝힘. 차트 구조: 1시간봉 기준 최근 저점 약 56.37달러, 현재 약 61.53달러, 고점 약 63.2달러 부근의 상승 채널 안에서 움직이는 중. 채널 주요 지지·저항 가격대는 약 61.10달러(하단 지지), 62.30달러, 63달러 부근으로 제시됨. 지지선 해석: 61.10달러 지지선이 여러 차례 아래로 찔렀으나 대부분 윗꼬리에 그쳤고 종가는 지지 위에서 마감. 61.10달러가 경질 지지이며, 약 60.5달러 부근은 약한 지지로 봄. 이 지지가 깨지면 60달러 부근까지 밀릴 가능성은 있으나 반등 가능성도 언급. 실적 이후 흐름: 실적 발표 후 대량 거래와 함께 강하게 상승해 63.5달러 부근까지 올랐다가 조정. 이후 이전 실적 발표 전 수준까지는 내려가지 않고 채널 내에서 상승 재시도를 반복. 현재 상단 돌파 시도가 두 차례 막히고 되돌림이 나온 상태이며, 발언자는 세 번째 시도에서 돌파하길 기대하나 거래량 증가가 필요하다고 봄. 이동평균선: 10일선이 20일선 위, 20일선이 50일선 위에 있는 정배열로 상승 추세 유지 중. 다만 이동평균선 기울기가 하락에서 평탄해지는 중이라 하락 압력이 완화되고 있으며, 곧 반전 가능성이 있다고 판단. 리스크·조건: 거래량이 현재 낮아 과거 실적 직후와 같은 폭발적 양봉은 기대하기 어렵다고 언급. 상단 채널 돌파가 상승 지속의 핵심 조건이며, 삼중 천장(triple top)이 나오면 안 된다고 경계. 지지선 이탈 시 하락 가능성도 있음. 배당·보유자 수익: 엔비디아가 배당을 지급하고 있어 채널 횡보 기간에도 주주 수익이 있다고 설명. 작년 11월 또는 2월 저점에서 매수한 사람들은 100% 이상 수익을 보고 있다고 언급. 투자 성향: 저변동성, 높은 유통 주식수(float), 견고한 펀더멘털을 근거로 리스크가 크지 않은 종목이라 평가. 단기 데이트레이딩이 아닌 스윙 또는 장기 보유 관점을 제시하며, 상승 쪽에 훨씬 더 낙관적이라고 밝힘. 결론적으로 발언자는 엔비디아가 상승 채널을 상향 돌파하며 고점을 높여 갈 것으로 보고 보유 또는 매수 관점을 유지.
다듬은 글
active investor here bringing you another independent analysis this time we're taking a look at the simple nvda that's inidia Corporation the chart we're looking at today is a 1H hour chart each Candlestick on this chart representing 1 hour of trading we go back to right around the 4th of the month to the current trading period as well and you can see Nvidia has been making very nice progress the low of this chart being about 5637 currently trading at about 6153 and the high on the chart 632 so definitely a nice uptrend there but we are seeing a bit of struggle of a struggle let me put it that way and uh let's go over those three main pivot Points in the current channel that we're in 6302 but we can just call it 63 next one down we're looking at 62.3 and then that bottom support in this channel 6110 so 6110 6230 and $63 now you'll notice that Nvidia has dipped below this 6110 support a few times so you could technically say that there is some soft support right around the $ 60.5 area 60.5 so if this support breaks there's a chance that we would dip around 60 and a half and then come back up but it is not solid support as you can see when we've dipped down there it was mostly the Wicks and the candles did always close above the $610 support so that's going to be the hard support So we had those you know that strong uptrend on Nvidia and then the great earnings here a ton of volume came in and very bullish we ran all the way up almost to that 61 63.5 High On That single candle came back down and then pressed up making steady gains and then making that high right here but Nvidia didn't want to hold those gains it came all the way back down but not to the pre earnings level which would have been here so we came back down to about here and then tried to uptrend again tried to break out through this channel got denied again up here and then once again fell back down so the same process has repeated one two times now and we are starting to turn around once again so is a very powerful stock there you can see this was the old Channel and I didn't actually do an analysis on it the whole time it was running here since it was such a strong uptrend there really wasn't much to analyze we had to wait to see if it dipped more and then as it was dipping here you'll notice that the candles began to converge with the 50 period average and the moving averages all converged here and then we have that very bullish Divergence all the averages arcing away from each other and all that volume coming in here that's those blue lines and that's where we ran up so if you reflect at the volume and compared to the current volume we're at much lower so don't expect any insane bullish candles like that until we get more volume but the nice thing here you can see Nvidia did pay a dividend and the whole time that this thing has been channeling well shareholders are still making money getting those dividends to come in and if you didn't buy in in this upper Channel which I'm sure most people have a much better cost basis you're still at a very nice profit on your shares so Nvidia is actually doing a really good job I would like to see it break out though so far we did have a one and a two a double top and I wouldn't want to see a triple top hopefully the third test we do break out but we're going to need once again more volume so if we go back to those averages they are bearish we have the 50 20 and the 10 average the yellow green purple we want to see it in this order here purple green yellow that's the 10 over the 20 over the 50 signifying that 10 periods of trading is higher than 20 periods of trading and both of those are higher than 50 periods of trading in other words there's a strong uptrend but all is not lost you can see here when we are in thear shorter that's when we did reverse and also make for that second breakout so we can indeed reverse once again and the fact that our averages are already kind of starting to straighten out is a good sign you can see when they are arcing down that's when we're really having a lot of downward pressure and right now that downward pressure is starting to even out so we could see this thing starting to reverse fairly soon and I think that we probably will Nvidia is a very powerful stock and it's not going to surprise me to see this thing come and test another breakout again so definitely going to be be keeping my eyes on Nvidia not for a day trade but for a swing trade or even a long position and I uh I know some people who've been holding Nvidia since last year around November or some people who have bought in on the February lows and they're at over 100% profit on Nvidia and being up over 100% on a solid company like that let me tell you that's a great thing to be not a very risky investment at all due to the low volatility and low rather the high float so not much volatility and strong fundamentals makes this a great stock to be up that much on and really you're just sitting back and enjoying the profits that you're already at while watching this thing making higher highs and higher lows so we just need to break out this channel for that run to continue and I'm much more bullish on it than I am bearish that's really all I have to say about Invidia hope you guys enjoyed this one if you did please leave a like and consider subscribing to the channel if you're not already for more content like this have a good one
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