저자: RayDalio원문해설 · 외국인
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결론: 경제는 거래·신용·생산성 사이클로 반복되며, 부채가 소득보다 빨리 늘지 않도록 관리하는 것이 핵심이라는 교육용 해설 영상이다. 영상은 레이 달리오의 2007년 에세이 'How the Economic Machine Works'를 바탕으로 경제를 생산성 성장, 단기 부채 사이클, 장기 부채 사이클의 세 요소로 설명한다. 거래와 신용: 경제의 기본 단위는 재화·서비스·금융자산을 돈 또는 신용과 교환하는 거래이며, 신용은 미래 돈에 대한 약속이다. 중앙정부는 세금을 걷고 지출하며 중앙은행은 돈과 신용의 흐름을 통제한다. 금리와 신용: 금리가 낮으면 대출 상환 부담이 적어 차입이 늘고, 금리가 높으면 차입이 줄어든다. 소득과 담보가 많을수록 신용도가 높아진다. 단기 사이클(5~8년): 지출과 차입이 생산을 넘어서면 인플레이션이 발생하고, 중앙은행이 금리를 올리면 지출이 줄며 디플레이션과 경기침체로 이어진다. 이후 금리를 내려 경기를 부양하는 것이 반복된다. 장기 사이클(75~100년): 부채가 누적되어 상환 능력을 넘으면 자산 가격 폭락과 디레버리징이 일어난다. 금리 인하만으로는 해결되지 않으며, 지출 축소, 부채 조정, 부의 재분배, 중앙은행의 화폐 발행이 필요하다. 2008년 위기가 대표 사례로 언급된다. 달리오의 세 가지 원칙: 부채가 소득보다 빨리 늘지 말 것, 소득이 생산성보다 빨리 늘지 말 것, 장기적으로 생산성을 높이는 데 힘쓸 것. 투자 조언: 영상은 달리오의 사고방식을 활용해 경기 사이클을 이해하라고 권하지만, 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 매매 권유는 없다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없으며, 장기적 경제 구조에 대한 일반론 중심이다.
다듬은 글
the global economy has been very rival uncertainty and we have felt all the effects of inflation Rising rates and geopolitical issues wouldn't it be nice if he had a better understanding of the current situation and how to safely navigate through it welcome to the Eighth Wonder a channel dedicated to making compound interest your best interest it is said that hindsight is 2020 by looking into the past we can learn very readable lessons that can help us in the future Ray dalio who ran one of the most successful hedge funds by the name Bridgewater Associates came up with an essay in 2007 titled how the economic Machine Works a template for understanding what is happening now this essay predicted what was to happen in 2008 when the global economy experienced one of the biggest crashes known to men this essay was turned into a video in September of 2013 and as I watched it recently I felt that it shed light on exactly what is happening in the economy today he talked about the cause and effect of the economic Cycles that have proven true Time After Time an understanding of the principles taught came from looking at times past and observing patterns this is what made him one of the best investors around and made his hedge fund one of the very best being able to stay profitable even in tough times including 2008.
this was the inspiration for this video and his video will be linked in the description so to begin we need to understand that the economy is driven by three main things productivity growth the short-term debt cycle and the long-term debt cycle the main building block of the economy is transactions the exchange of goods and services or financial assets for money or credit that happen each and every day you will notice that there is distinction between money and credit this is due to the fact that credit is not actual money but is backed up by the promise of money sometime in the future transactions no matter how big or small have one thing in common they constitute an exchange of valuables goods and services is for a store of value money or credit all the transactions that occur collectively make up the economy and help us understand spending all the Cycles observed in the economy are a direct result of transactions the central government and the Central Bank are the biggest contributors to the economy the central government collects taxes and spends money while the Central Bank controls money flow and credit through credit we can borrow money and finance things which we cannot outright afford like a house or a car which we can repay over a certain amount of time with a certain amount of Interest attached to it lenders make money through interest while borrowers get the things they need now without having to pay the full price at once the higher the interest rates are the more money the lender makes because the borrower will have to pay back more money when interest rates are low more people are incentivized to take up credit because repayments are cheap and when the rates are high less people take up credits as this would mean bigger repayments when it comes to credit the more you earn the more willing lenders will be to lend you money and the more money you pay back on time meaningful the more credit worthy you become lenders will especially like you if you have assets that can be used as collateral in the case that you default on your payments their goal is to make back their money that they borrowed you plus a little more and the more pack up you have the safer you are to them the more credit people take up the more spending they can do and this continues to happen thus driving up economic growth productivity growth is a byproduct of economic growth as people make more money they tend to spend more of it and tend to take up more credit too more money and credit means that businesses can grow salaries can rise and people can improve their living conditions as long as productivity is growing alongside economic growth people will continue to take up Credit in order to afford goods and services over time the borrowers who are consuming more than what they make get to a point where they owe more than what they can afford because as the economy grows productivity growth gets left behind this causes and challenging the economy as the borrower's ability to repay decreases which in turn decreases spending redalio explains it quite well when he says that when we take up credit we are essentially borrowing from our future selves as we'll have to make repayments in the future which will affect how much we can spend then this means that the more credit you take up now the more you have to pay back later and if your credit exceeds your income or production then you are more than likely to default on your repayments so what happens when these defaults happen at a large scale this is where we start to see the short-term debt cycle come to play as spending and borrowing continue to rise they get to the point where they are higher than production which would then cause inflation a rise in prices inflation causes prices to rise and as long as people are able to pay back credit they will continue to take up more of it but eventually it will reach a level where it becomes very high and the central bank has to step in and save the day to try and keep inflation in control the central bank will raise interest rates which in turn will cause repayments to become expensive and less appealing to Borrowers spending will decrease and prices will decrease too causing deflation the opposite of inflation this can lead to a decrease in economic activity which eventually leads to a recession a significant widespread and prolonged downturn in economic activity if the recession gets severe and inflation is no longer a problem the central bank will lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy the central bank will eventually start to raise interest rates and look to have them at a rate that sustains growth but is also stable usually around 3 percent this effort is meant to balance the economic seesaw if you will the Central Bank plays a big role in this cycle and as much as it is called a short-term debt cycle it can take five to eight years at the end of each of these Cycles the economy tends to be higher than the last cycle people spend instead of paying off debts and it seems like all is well but eventually in the long term it catches up with them everything keeps going up for decades income the stock market and asset values but all of these have been bought on credit and eventually debt repayments are needed and people don't have the money to pay them this causes a huge crash like the one that took place in 2008.
individuals and Banks alike feel the pressure in comes fall the stock market crashes and asset values decline at this point the lowering of interest rate doesn't help this phase is known as de-leveraging since credit has been over leveraged lenders cannot make back their money even with collateral because of the fall in asset values the central government can collect much taxes in such a situation due to high unemployment caused by the crash the long-term debt cycle can take anywhere from 75 to 100 years during this period people might be forced to sell assets that they bought using credit as they cannot repay and as more and more people do the same the value of those assets decreases which means that selling isn't profitable anymore the big difference between a recession and a deleveraging is that inner deleveraging the the lowering of interest rates does not help the situation credit is just too high in comparison to production in order to make it out of the situation individuals businesses and governments will have to cut down on spending deaths need to be reduced or restructured wealth needs to be redistributed and central banks will have to print more money in order to stimulate the economy how these measures applied will determine how well the economy will recover eventually conditions will improve and things will get better but due to the fact that the economy is driven by transactions and transactions are what humans do in order to survive this will become a cycle which when we look back into history has always taken place and will continue to do so what can we do to keep a flow through all of these conditions here's what Ray dalio had to say so in summary there are three rules of thumb that I'd like you to take away from this first don't have debt rise faster than income because your debt burdens will eventually Crush you second don't have income rise faster than productivity because you'll eventually become uncompetitive and third do all that you can to raise your productivity because in the long run that's what matters most this is simple advice for you and it's simple advice for policy makers and there you have it Having learned how the market works you can now apply the advice given so you can make it to the other side of life these are the very things that made rate audio is successful investor so you now have the blueprint and it's up to you to decide what to do if you'd like to watch the video by Ray danielio it is linked in the description of this video I truly hope that this has been as informative to you as it has been to me do share your thoughts in the comments below and let me know how you feel about the economic cycles and how they work if you have found value in this video then show some love by click on the like button and sharing the video with a friend subscribe for more videos like this and click on the notification Bell so you never upload thanks for watching hope to see you on the next one but until then
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