저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
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2023년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 오전 세션을 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 두 사람은 단기 주가 변동에 신경 쓰지 않고 장기 사업가치 중심 투자를 강조하며, 가치투자 기회는 줄었지만 남들의 어리석은 행동이 기회를 만든다고 본다. [투자 철학·시장 인식] 주식 보유는 사업 소유이며 장기적으로 자본이득을 기대한다. 단기 주가 변동과 시장 예측은 중요하지 않다. 금리·시장 전망은 불확실하다는 입장이다. [실리콘밸리은행 사태] 정부의 예금 보장 개입은 은행권 혼란과 글로벌 시장 붕괴를 막기 위해 필요했다고 본다. 2억 5천만 달러 한도는 법 조문상 기준일 뿐이며 미국 정부는 그대로 두지 않을 것이라는 취지다. [가치투자 기회] 가치투자자 경쟁이 늘어 기회는 줄었지만 다른 사람들의 어리석은 행동이 계속 기회를 만든다. 신용 조달이 쉬워져 큰 실수를 하는 사람이 늘었다는 평가다. [버크셔 경영·후계] 버크셔는 경영진 교체 후에도 주주 중심 경영과 막대한 자본력·다각화된 사업 구조를 유지할 것이라 강조한다. 애플 등 우량 기업 지분은 지속 보유 대상이다. [분산투자·종목 판단] 과도한 분산투자는 불필요하며 자신이 잘 아는 소수의 좋은 기업에 집중하는 편이 낫다고 주장한다. 애플은 소비자 충성도가 높은 우량 기업으로 평가된다. [대만 TSMC·일본] TSMC는 세계 최고 수준의 경영과 경쟁력을 가진 기업으로 평가되지만, 대만의 지정학적 위험 때문에 투자 비중을 줄였다. 자본은 미국·일본 쪽이 더 안심된다는 입장이다. [자사주 매입] 여유 자본이 있고 주가가 내재가치보다 낮다면 자사주 매입은 명백히 합리적이라고 본다. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기 시장 방향에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없고, 장기 사업 성장과 우량 기업 보유에 대한 낙관적 견해가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
on the 6th of May 2023 all roads led to the chi Health Center in Omaha Nebraska for the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting a highly anticipated event for investors journalists and anyone interested in business and finance this meeting provided an opportunity for shareholders to hear directly from Warren Buffett and chilly manga about the company's performance strategy and Outlook as well as to ask them questions so what were some of the key points to take away well let's find out welcome to the 8th Wonder a channel dedicated to making compound interest your best interest one of the very first things Warren started out with was to show the earnings report and talk about the company's approach to investing we expect to make capital gains over time why would we own the Sharks otherwise uh doesn't always work out but overall it works out pretty well over time but in any day any quarter any year even occasionally over a five-year period uh the stock prices move around capriciously now we own a lot of other businesses we consider those stocks businesses we own a lot of other businesses where they get them Consolidated and they don't move around in value nothing is sure nothing sure tomorrow nothing sure next year and nothing is ever sure either in markets or in business forecasts or anything else and we don't pay much attention to markets or forecasts unless the markets happen offer something interesting to do but we will have what produced us not that long ago on a 12-month basis was producing 50 million a year producing something in the area of 5 billion a year so we're in a position where the investment income is essentially well it is certain to increase quite a bit so it starts off talking about how the expectation with every company that Berkshire invests in is for it to grow to make capital gains which is why the view every investment there's an ownership in a business and not just a piece of stock he also talks about how the compulsive movement of the share price does not affect their decisions he goes on to talk about how there's a lot of uncertainty in the markets so predictions are of very little consequence the only thing to consider is how the short-term effects can work in your favor in the long term it finishes off by talking about treasury yields which have a guaranteed return so they are predictable in that sense a question was then asked about what would have happened if the government had not stepped in to rescue depositors who had their money invested in Silicon Valley Bank this is what he had to say simply say it would have been catastrophic and that's why they were covered and even though the FDIC limiters two hundred and fifty thousand dollars that that's the way the statute reads but that is not the way the U.S is going to behave uh any more than they're going to let the debt ceiling uh uh cause the world to go into turmoil the explanation is pretty straightforward in order to avoid big disturbance in the banking sector and the potential Global Market crashed the U.S government had to step in and help thus helping to keep everyone calm in the markets operational another question was asked about whether or not Buffett and manga had ever made emotional decisions in the business that they ended up regretting this was their answer but have we ever made an emotional decision no no that's in business we're talking about yeah no you don't want to be a no emotion person in all of your life but you you definitely want to be a no more no emotion person making an investment or business decision an interesting little exchanges had between Buffett and manga when asked about value investing and the opportunities available today here's what they had to say I think value investors are going to have a harder time now that there's so many of them competing first a diminished bunch of opportunities so my advice to Value investors is to get used to making less Charlie was been telling me the same thing the whole time we've known each other we we get along wonderfully because we are making less yeah well but that's because that mostly I think is because it's larger we were younger we never thought we could manage 508 billion no one or five yeah but I I would argue that uh there's gonna be plenty of opportunities and part of the reason they're going to be plenty of opportunities the the tech doesn't make any difference or any of that I mean if you look at how the world changed in them in the years since 1942 when I started and say well how do the kid that doesn't know anything about airplanes it doesn't know anything about the engines and cars and doesn't know anything about them electricity and all that but that really isn't the that's not the the world changing doesn't or new things coming along don't take away the opportunities what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things I would say that well the 58 years we've been running Berkshire I would say there's been a great increase uh and the number of people doing dumb things and they do big dumb things and the reason they do it to some extent is because they they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started so Charlie and I have always differed on this subject he he likes to tell me how gloomy the world is and I I like to tell them we'll find something and and so far we've both been kind of right the world is overwhelmingly short-term focused and if you go to an investor relations call they're all trying to figure out how to fill those out of sheet to show the earnings for the year and the management is interested in feeding them expectations that will slightly be beaten I mean that that is the world that's made to order for anybody that's trying to think about what you do that should work over five or ten or twenty years I would love to be born today and go out with not too much money and hopefully turn it into a lot of money but and Charlie would too actually just like he he would find something to do I will just guarantee you uh and it wouldn't be exactly the same as before but he would have a big big big pile I would not like the thrill of losing my big pile into a small pie but we like my big piles is the Way It Is Well I like we agree on that incidentally okay we do you're one of the most extreme lovers of the big pile it's always fun to hear these two debate topics like that this just goes to show that as much as they always talk about thinking alike they are at the end of the day different people so they will often see things from different perspectives but what matters most is that they're able to work together so value investing is not dead and depending on who you listen to there are a lot of opportunities to be seized you just have to go out there and make it happen Buffett went on to talk about how a lot of today's investors are too focused on the short term and they miss out on opportunities that are more long-term he even remarked that if we were born in today's world he would make a lot of money with the knowledge that he has starting out with a small sum of money this can be a great lesson for today's investors on a good approach to take now with Warren and Charlie getting old the inevitable was brought up what they expect the company to do once they're longer around especially with Warren success are already chosen in Greg Abel who was a part of the morning session and had some questions to answer to these were their thoughts neither one of us are worried basically but we but but we plan we do plan and and you know I've got a model in my mind of what Berkshire has been that model's getting it's been modified plenty of times over 58 years and the one thing I know initially is or very quickly was it shouldn't be a textile company that was that was an important decision and and I mean we've just played the hand as a as a come along and and we made a few really good decisions and we will never make a decision that kills us only things that are a threat to the planet we don't have any answer for those but we do we keep ourselves in better shape than anybody else that and we just aren't going to have big maturities of debt that come along we aren't going to have uh insurance policies that be can be cashed in and mass and we will sit with the Lord what looks like a huge amount of capital and but it is a huge amount of capital but there's a huge amount of earning power there's a huge amount of diversity everything so our business model will be graded and it'll be graded against a lot of a lot of people that we'd like to be graded against so uh I I think we're handling something very secure over to the Future and I think we've got the shareholder base like nobody has I mean there isn't anybody in the country that I know of unless they've had a shareholder an employee-owned company prior to going public or something of the sort but but this is the product of you know the 58 years of of regarding the shareholder as the owner of the company we have we feel no pressure from Wall Street uh you know we don't have investor calls we don't have to make promises we we get a chance to make our own mistakes and and occasionally find something that that works well but we recognize that the people in this room and people like them uh are the ones we're working for and we're not working for a bunch of people that that care about whether we meet the quarter estimate or anything so it was we have a freedom uh that we that we get to use and who are interested in men we're interested in owning a wonderful business forever well there aren't very many wonderful businesses warren j essentially speaks of the building blocks that made that business what it is today and how the plan is to continue in that path even when leadership changes the key to this is that the influence will stay the same the business will be focused on investors and not outside noise in these meetings the quick word and humor of Charlie manga is something to always expect especially when someone makes a board claim that turns out to be unfounded that when someone claimed that Apple made up 35 of berkshire's portfolio and that wasn't a healthy position to hold it but apple is not 35 percent of of Berkshire portfolio bursters portfolio includes the railroad the energy business Garanimals you name it See's Candy they're all businesses and uh you know the the good thing about Apple is that we we can go up they buy in their stock and instead of owning 5.6 percent you know they get down to I got about 15 billion 700 and some million shares outstanding they get down to 15 and a quarter billion without us doing anything we've got six percent so we can't own more than 100 of the NSF we can't own more than 100 percent of grow animals or See's candy and it'd be nice we'd love it on 200 but that just isn't doable but they're all the same they're good businesses and to think that our Criterion a criteria for apple is different than the other businesses we own it just happens to be a better business than any we own and we put a fair amount of money in it but we haven't got more money in it than we've got in the railroad and apple is a Better Business our railroad is a very good business but it's not remotely as good as Apple's business but uh Apple you know has a position with consumers where they're paying you know maybe they'll pay 1500 bucks or whatever it may be for a phone and these same people pay 35 000 for having a second car and if they had to give up a second car or give up their iPhone they'd give up their second car I mean it's an extraordinary problem we don't have anything like that that we own 100 of but we're very very very happy to have 5.6 or whatever it may be percent and we're delighted every tenth of a percent that goes up it's like adding 100 million dollars to our earnings I mean our share of the earnings and they use their earnings to buy out our partners one of the inane things that's taught in modern University education is it a vast diversification is absolutely mandatory and investing in Common Stocks that is an insane idea it's not that easy to have a vast plethora of good opportunities that are easily identified and if you've only got three I'd rather be in my best ideas instead of my worst and now some people can't tell their best ideas from their worst in in the act of deciding the investment already is good they they get the thing gets better than it is I think we made fewer mistakes like that than other people and that is a blessing to us if you know the edge of your own ability pretty well you should ignore most of the Notions of our experts about what I call diversification of portfolios so Warren explains that apple does not make 35 of the entire business portfolio but only in equities from companies that they do not own 100 off despite one avoiding text talks due to him feeling like he doesn't understand them enough he knows that apple is one that is superior and that he understands the way consumers behave towards his product and that's why they own Apple Charlie had a bit to say about diversification that it has to be done right when a company in our portfolio is proving to be the best performing one and it doesn't make sense to not focus more on it he warned about over diversification which he referred to as diversification now if you follow berkshire's quarterly filings then you'll probably be aware of how they bought tsmc a while ago and recently sold off a big portion of it here's Warren explaining why such was the case at Taiwan semiconductor is one of the best managed companies and important companies in the world and uh there is not and I think you'll be able to say the same thing 5 or 10 or 20 years from now I don't like its location and and uh reevaluated that marvelous people and marvelous uh competitive position and everything I'd rather find it in the United States I feel better about the capital that we've got deployed in Japan than in Taiwan if you're not familiar with tsmc they are the largest semiconductor company in the world they are responsible for 58.8 percent of the world's microchips which run most of the technology that we use including the device from which you are watching this video it seems like Buffett is concerned with other geopolitical issues that have been going on between Taiwan and China and felt like if anything happened it would affect the investment which is not good for business which is why he wants to invest in either Japan or the United States consenting stock BuyBacks a topic which Warren had stressed a lot lately this is what he had to say then if you got ample capital and you don't see that you're going to use it all and your stock is attractive and it enhances the intrinsic value for the remaining shareholders it's a no-brainer and if it's if it's above the price of intrinsic value it's a non-brainer that you don't even listen to anybody no matter what investment banker comes in and tells you here's how to do a repurchase program and finally he talked about the vision for Berkshire going forward now our vision for Berkshire is exactly what we said today we we wanted to be a company that is owned by its shareholders and behaves in a way that Society is happy that it exists and not unhappy and we will have unlimited capital we'll get lots of talent and we've got a base that can't be beat and there's no reason why it can't be perpetuated just like Ben's book and maybe be an example to other people and and if so we'll be very happy the goal is to make Berkshire a strong company with a good competitive advantage that many can always look up to so much wisdom shared by Buffett and manga in these meetings and I had to Crime almost three hours into this video which only covered the morning session of the meeting stay tuned for part two well with breaking down the afternoon session because there will be a lot more to learn from these great men what were your favorite parts of this meeting what did you think of Berkshire as a company and how Buffalo Bangor have managed it comment below and let me know I always appreciate hearing from you guys I hope that you found value in this video if you did then show some love by clicking on the like button and sharing the video with a friend don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already and be sure to click on the notification Bell to stay up to date with the latest from this channel thanks for watching hope to see you on the next video but until then stay invested foreign
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