저자: CathieWood—영상진행자해설포함미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 경제가 부채 누적과 제로 코로나·부동산 규제로 붕괴 국면에 들어섰고, 이것이 세계 경기침체로 번질 수 있다는 주장. 중국 경제 배경: 개혁개방 후 고성장했으나 정부부채/GDP 66%, 공공대출/GDP 300% 이상으로 지속 불가능하다고 주장. 제로 코로나 봉쇄와 부채 축소 정책이 부정적 피드백 루프를 만든다고 봄. 부동산: 공동부유 정책과 3대 레드라인으로 주택가격과 신규 분양이 급락, 부동산이 GDP의 25%라 판매 33% 감소 시 GDP 약 9% 하락 가능. 정책 대응: 중국은 LPR 3.7%로 금리를 인하 중이며 최근 5년물 LPR을 2019년 이후 최대폭 인하. 반면 미 연준은 금리 인상으로 달러를 강화해 위안화 약세 압력. 글로벌 영향: 중국은 2021년 세계 GDP의 18% 이상을 차지하므로 붕괴 시 세계적 약세. 2008년과 달리 아시아·유럽·미국이 동시에 고통받을 수 있다고 봄. 미국 경기: 미 국채 장단기 금리차 역전(10년물<2년물)은 침체 선행 신호로 제시. 연준 금리 인상은 '불장난'이라는 비판. 데이터 신뢰성: 중국 일부 도시의 통계 조작 사례(부타우 등)를 들어 실제 침체 규모는 더 클 수 있다고 주장. 이에 따라 유가 일시 하락 가능성 언급. 포트폴리오: 현금 25%, 금 5%, 비트코인 5%, ETF 40%, 개별주 25% 등 분산 제안. 미국 시장이 상대적으로 가장 유리하다고 판단. 고위험 선호 시 공개 성장주(ARK 중심) 투자 기회를 제시하며, 단기 하락 감내를 전제로 함. 출연자 견해: 중국 경기침체와 미국 동반 타격 가능성에 대해 시청자 의견을 묻는 형식.
다듬은 글
China's whole economy is going to collapse and affect the biggest worldwide recession the latest economic information emerging from China is exposing the country's serious weakness the Chinese Communist party is attempting to save the economy however the reality has already emerged Kathy Wood oversees nearly 20 billion and has rapidly recognized the agony that the world is going to face economists currently see the U.S gross domestic product growth outperforming China for the first time in 50 years so what's really happening in China this video will show China's fighting circumstances and the stunning information pointing toward the Nations collapse welcome to bulls and bears if you are new to the channel hit the like button and subscribe if you enjoy our content now let's go back to the video after China started to open its economy in 1978 the nation experienced unprecedented levels of growth China's gross domestic product growth averaged a rate of generally 10 percent each year this brought significant prosperity to Chinese residents over 800 million individuals got away from poverty Medical Care progressed tremendously education became prioritized and technological advancement accelerated China's unmatched growth has driven the country to turn into a manufacturing Powerhouse respected by all Financial experts however as all of you know there's no free lunch the reason behind China's and matched Prosperity is centered on its growing liabilities when the economy flourished the people who took out loans encountered a speedy appreciation in their net worth this cost others to do the same making the economy grow significantly faster this allowed more Chinese residents to take out loans the cycle represented a positive feedback loop that made China experience exponential growth this model has worked for a long time however China's debt has grown to a point that isn't sustainable China's government debt to GDP ratio has grown to more than 66 percent which was built over many years of growth the total public Chinese loan to gross domestic product has likewise followed this direction to more than 300 percent this is practically sixty percent higher than the worldwide rate of debt to GDP and it's practically double the U.S non-financial corporate debt to GDP such a huge amount of liabilities is not sustainable and China's new issues are revealing this China has been endeavoring to carry out what's known as the zero coronavirus strategy the zero coronavirus strategy provides China's government with a straightforward objective of zero coronavirus cases the best way to get somewhat near this objective is to execute brutal regulations which have extreme economic ramifications Banks and economists worldwide have continuously cut their GDP forecasts for China due to severe coronavirus regulations more significantly China's cracked down an over leveraged organizations could induce something contrary to the positive feedback loop we discussed earlier a negative feedback loop individuals defaulting on their loans caused the economy to slow down that leads more individuals to default which slows down the economy significantly president XI has a simple objective of common prosperity and has been executing a huge array of guidelines for this campaign one of these areas is real estate real estate prices are a prime example of uncommon Prosperity speculators have made a disproportionate amount of capital appreciation from increasing property prices she is endeavoring to get serious about this by implementing new property taxes another strategy that she has been implementing to take action against Real Estate is the three red lines policy the three red lines put a ceiling on how much debt property developers can have these policies are causing housing prices to drop at incredibly fast rates the volume of new home sales is also encountering a similar slump new home sales at the beginning of May 2022 were down by around 33 percent in 23 significant Chinese cities real estate represents 25 percent of China's GDP so a 33 drop in home sales would bring about a nine percent drop in China's GDP China's government recognizes the organization's impending catastrophe and has been doing anything in its power to prevent further collapse while the U.S federal reserve has been raising interest rates China's government has been slicing interest rates to save its economy China's loan prime rate for households and corporate loans is presently at 3.7 percent this number is only expected to drop significantly as time goes on the country recently cut its five-year loan prime rate by the biggest amount since 2019.
most investors view this crash as an isolated failure that won't influence other countries contrary to this China's economic collapse could make the whole world enter an extreme recession the U.S federal reserve is Raising interest rates and reinforcing the buying power of the dollar this directly weakens the worth of the Chinese yuan in contrast with the US dollar China's weakening currency will lead its buying power to drop considerably will the Chinese economy is already crashing China represented more than 18 percent of the worldwide GDP in 2021 so an unexpected crash in China's economy would cost worldwide weakness top this off with the fact that Europe is encountering decelerating economic growth and we are plainly in a scary situation Kathy compared the FED raising interest rates to Playing with Fire because it could intensify worldwide issues the U.S Bond curve recently inverted for the first time since 2019 which points to a coming recession an inverted yield curve is when the 10-year treasury bond yield is less than the two-year treasury bond yield when the interest rate for a shorter time frame is greater than a longer time frame this suggests that the near-term risk is more than a long-term one in simpler terms Bond investors are anticipating extensive pain an inverted yield curve usually goes before recessions in most cases Europe and China are in Troublesome Waters the feds seem to be playing with fire Global economies are incredibly delicate at the moment and a crash in the U.S economy will twist every economy into terrible turmoil the last worldwide recession was in 2008 when a large number of countries experienced economic weakness however the 2008 recession wasn't on a similar scale as our looming crisis China's GDP was still growing in double digits during the 2008 worldwide recession the remainder of Asia Australia and Africa likewise didn't encounter a significant decrease in their particular gdps unlike 2008 our current circumstance incorporates most of Asia Europe South Africa Australia and America suffering I've shown many charts about China's economy all through this video however those numbers could really be fake China is known for having misleading economic data that covers economic disasters and overstates growth a few Chinese cities have openly admitted to faking financial data one Northern Industrial city in China named bautau openly revised its economic report because of quote unquote fake editions one more City in 2016 that was known as the Chinese Manhattan exaggerated its income by 33 percent this sort of false reporting could imply that China is now in a recession however we simply don't know it yet Kathy thinks that if we saw the real numbers in China there would be significantly more massive sales decreases in the property sector she thinks that could eventually prompt lower oil prices temporarily so considering this data how could investors set up their portfolios to endure this lump one simple method for remaining above water is to hold cash but inflation will consume your capital investing internationally is likewise impossible with both Asia and Europe suffering one method to safeguard your portfolio in the coming months is to put resources into the U.S market that could sound illogical however the U.S financial markets are still in the best position compared to the worldwide markets even though the US dollar is encountering huge inflation it is remaining somewhat strong the dollar Index tracks the strength of the dollar compared to other currencies this index has been on the upswing over the last year despite High inflation investing in gold could be a phenomenal hedge although a significant slowdown in inflation could lead gold prices to drop my point is that each asset has disadvantages in this climate diversification in the best assets would be the best choice for bringing down volatility while keeping positive returns one example of diversification could be 25 of Cash 5 in gold five percent in Bitcoin forty percent in ETFs and 25 in individual stocks such a portfolio probably won't get the most significant yields however you can still have the capital to purchase the dip while having long-term gains if you're seeking to take on higher risk for higher rewards putting resources into public growth stocks could be extremely worthwhile a lot of venture capitalists turned out to be unquestionably bullish on public growth development stocks we all know that public growth stocks have crashed immensely with Arc invest being the focal point this has opened a vast range of opportunities to make 10 or even 20 times returns over the next few years public growth stocks are very volatile and you should only invest if you're ready to see your portfolio Trend downward for the short term that being said I have seen a few very rich people change their feelings about growth stocks and begin buying in tell me your opinion on China's looming recession down below do you feel that the U.S will be hit alongside China if you enjoyed this video hit that subscribe button click on the notification Bell to be updated on our new videos see you in our next video
Comments 0