저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 러시아 사태로 촉발된 스태그플레이션이 심화되어 달러 약세, 기술주·비트코인 추가 하락이 예상되며 현재 반등은 데드캣 바운스라고 주장한다. 거시경제 전망: 러시아 사태가 공급망 병목과 인플레이션을 자극하고, 연준이 이를 일시적 현상으로 치부하며 완화적 통화정책을 이어갈 것이라 본다. 1970년대 유가 충격 때와 유사하게 연준이 돈을 더 찍어 인플레이션을 키울 것이라는 논리다. 인플레이션 수준: 미국 공식 물가상승률이 7% 이상이며 실제로는 두 배 가까이 될 수 있다고 주장한다. 이 수준에서는 연준이 저물가 명분으로 금리를 낮출 수 없다고 본다. 금리·달러 전망: 미국 금리가 이미 제로 수준에 가깝고 연준의 인하 여력이 제한적이라 본다. 금리를 제로로 되돌리면 달러 가치가 붕괴할 것이라고 예측한다. 현재 안전자산 자금이 달러로 유입되는 흐름은 일시적이라고 본다. 금리 방향: 미국 금리 인상 후 곧 다시 제로로 내려가야 할 것이라는 취지로 말한다. 금리 방향의 구체적 수치 목표는 제시하지 않았다. 기술주·비트코인: 적자 성장주와 비트코인에 몰리는 자금은 자금 조달이 막히면서 생존이 어려워질 것이라 본다. 현재 반등은 데드캣 바운스이며, 기술주(캐시 우드 류)와 크립토는 신저점을 향할 것이라고 전망한다. 한 달 내외 시점에서 신저점을 언급했다. 자산 선호: 광업, 농업, 금속, 가치주, 배당주로 자금이 이동할 것이라 본다. 이 흐름은 러시아 사태 이전 추세가 복귀하는 것이라고 말한다. 정치적 해석: 바이든 행정부가 지지율 하락을 막기 위해 러시아를 희생양으로 삼을 것이라고 주장한다. 러시아 문제가 장기간 지속될 것으로 본다. 리스크: 연준의 정책 실패 가능성, 인플레이션 장기화, 달러 신뢰 붕괴가 주요 위험으로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
the result of this may not be the toppling of Russia and its attempts to reform the Soviet Union but it may end up being the toppling of America I mean Russia was this one great superpower and then there was the United States well Russia collapsed but the United States remained as the sole remaining superpower but our economy our industrial base continued to disintegrate and we may now be on the cusp of the collapse of our Empire and it might be ironic that the nation that ends up pushing us over that precipice is what remains of our former adversary in the Soviet Union Russia the FED is going to blame a lot of the new inflation on Russia it doesn't have to blame it on covet anymore it can blame it on Russia and it's going to be an excuse to allow Rising inflation just like they claimed it was transitory because the supply chain bottlenecks well now they can pull that transitory card out again only this time it's because of Russia the supply chain problems are now because of Russia and the Ukraine it's got nothing to do with the FED it's got nothing to do with monetary policy in fact the FED needs a more expansionary monetary policy to counteract the damage being done to the economy from what's going on with these Global Supply chains like we need more money which is exactly what they did you know when the oil price went up in the 1970s that resulted in the FED printing more money creating more inflation because the FED wanted to offset the contractionary effects of rising oil prices on the economy and the FED wanted to make sure that consumers had more money to buy more expensive oil and of course that's what was fueling the process and the same thing is going to happen again which is why I do believe that the only viable path for the U.S government to take and maybe even before the next action is going to be price controls it is going to be rationing I mean we did that in World War II you know we had rationing things were in short supply you know we had price controls in the 1970s that may be where we're headed because I don't see the FED doing what Paul volcker did in the 1980s not in the vulnerable position that the U.S economy is now in and that is why it's different this time because when inflation was low when the FED could point to a CPI that was below two percent well at that time the FED could justify the cheap money the FED could actually say look the economy is weak but also inflation is too low and they came up with this cockamamie explanation of why too low inflation is bad so we can kill two birds with one stone with this monetary policy we can stimulate a weak economy but we can also get more inflation which is what we need any anyway we were not hitting our Target we didn't have two percent inflation which supposedly is the Holy Grail when it comes to inflation and we weren't quite there yet and so we're going to pursue these policies but when you've got inflation well above seven percent and with what we're seeing now there's no way inflation is going to be under 10 even the way the government measures it in 2022.
so when you've got 10 inflation officially unofficially maybe double that maybe 20 percent if that's how much prices are going up there is no way the FED could claim that we need more inflation and it cannot justify it successively lose monetary policy on low inflation but for now what's going on in Russia is actually working to help someone and offset the situation because it is driving some Safe Haven flows into the US dollar and so that is keeping a lid somewhat on prices that are surging all around the world but that benefit is not being enjoyed in Europe I mean prices are rising in the U.S despite a strong dollar that means they're Rising even more in Europe as the euro is weakening against the dollar and other countries that are seeing their currency weakening inflation is breaking out all over the world so it's impossible for central banks around the world to justify a continuation of this monetary Madness they can't keep shooting monetary heroin into economies that are already overdosing from all the monetary heroin that they've already ingested so we are at the end of our rope yes maybe we can have a small bounce as investors still haven't come to terms with the degree to which the situation has changed given how much inflation we have given the enormity of the fed's balance sheet given that interest rates are already at zero if we are are going into a recession right now even if the Catalyst for the recession is what's happening in Russia what is the Fed going to do about it they have no room to cut rates even if they get the First Rate hike in in March but then they have to turn around a couple months later and go back to zero because we're now clearly in a recession as opposed to just headed for one how much stimulus is the Fed gonna deliver when all you can cut rates is 25 basis points is it really going to make a difference to a weak economy if you take rates from 25 basis points to zero especially if inflation continues to get worse but the minute the FED does that the dollar is going to tank I mean if the FED has to go back to zero I don't see how the dollar could survive that if the dollar hadn't already started to get killed based on the fact that the market sensed this was happening what's going on with the safe haven flows to the dollar that's going to blow over just like any money that is flowing into these tech stocks and Bitcoin because in this Dynamic these companies are not going to survive I mean right now people are thinking hey the companies that don't have any earnings and don't pay any dividends they're not affected as much by what's going on in Russia right we don't have to worry about the impact on their profits because they don't have any profits they don't have Assets in Russia that they're going to have to write down Sovereign wealth funds aren't being pressured into dumping their shares at fire sale prices because of their connections to Russia so people are piling into these stocks but what investors are missing is the lack of viability of these companies because they're not going to be able to come back to the capital markets to offset their burn companies in this space that are losing money are going to lose even more money because of what's happening in the global economy and Russia than they were losing before and their revenue growth is not going to be there so the Dynamics are no longer there there and how are these companies going to survive if they can't sell new stock at inflated prices how are they going to keep paying their employees when their employees don't want to work for stock options because the stocks are tanking the Dynamics are going to change and the fortunes of these companies are going to change and especially the people who are betting on them this is a dead cat bounce in that sector it is a dead cat bounce in Bitcoin and anybody who missed the initial decline in the Kathy Wood type stocks or the crypto this is your opportunity to get out of jail yeah you're not going to sell at the top we're nowhere near the top but we're far enough off the bottom that you can sell and take comfort in the fact that you didn't sell the low although even the people who sold below prior to this rally in a month maybe less will be glad they got out because we'll be hitting new lows but I want to go over some of the economic data that just came out in the last couple of days that continues to to validate the stagflationary argument that I am making and again which is why this time will be different when you have a weak economy and inflation that's much different than having a weak economy and no inflation because the FED has lots of options when there's no inflation it has no options when there's High inflation and when the world comes to terms with that predicament the way they allocate Capital the way they invest money will be very different than the way they did it in Prior Cycles the money is going to plow into the mining sector agriculture Metals it's going to go into value it's going to go into dividends those trends that were in place prior to Russia are going to be back in place after Russia but again Russia is going to be here for a long time the Biden Administration needs Russia this is the excuse they need they need to take these problems into the election they need to have a scapegoat coven wasn't going to be it if you look at the approve ratings for the Biden Administration they were in the tank they needed some kind of tail to wag the dog and this might be it right this could be the new gift that keeps on giving not only for the central Bankers but for the Biden Administration to blame any problems in the U.S economy on what's happening in Russia
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