저자: PeterSchiff/대담출연자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 긴축 효과가 약해지며 달러는 약세로 돌아서고 인플레이션은 재가속될 가능성이 크며, 금광주 강세와 가치주 중심 장세를 기대한다. 달러와 인플레이션: 연준이 금리 인상 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 주장이 나오며, 시장이 연준의 인플레이션 싸움이 성공한다고 믿어 달러가 약세로 돌아섰다고 본다. 이는 인플레이션을 다시 자극해 연준이 자기 성공의 희생자가 될 것이라는 전망이다. 달러 이탈과 대체자산 이동이 가속될 것으로 예상. 주식 시장 로테이션: 적자 기업 중심 기술주 버블 주도 장세는 끝나고, 배당 중심 가치주가 다음 상승을 이끌 것이라고 반복 주장. 고인플레·장기금리 상승 환경에서 적자 기업은 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 나스닥 상승은 전체 흐름의 일부일 뿐이라는 입장. 금·은 광산주: 주니어 금광주가 약 40% 상승한 '은밀한 강세장'이 진행 중이며, 주류 언론이 주목하기 전에 저점 대비 2배에서 3배까지 오를 수 있다고 전망. 대중이 몰리기 전 투자하라고 권고. 종목 예: 금광·은광 관련 주식 전반(개별 종목명 미언급). 국채·통화 구조: 40년간 구조적 금리 하락과 초고부채가 누적됐고, 현재 금리 상승과 통화 안정화 시도로 국채 시장 변동성이 커졌다고 진단. 실물자원 가격 상승으로 금융자산 가치가 하락해 청구권 대부분이 실물을 충분히 보장하지 못할 수 있다고 주장. 리스크 및 조건: 약달러 전환과 인플레 재가속이 전제. 극단적 레버리지 체계의 취약성을 강조하며 무레버리지 개인의 회복력과 대비. 중앙은행의 구제금융과 인위적 저금리가 부채 누적을 유도한다고 비판. 출연자 전망: 시장 구조와 금광주에 대한 낙관적 전망 및 연준 정책 비판 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
they wanted to pretend they could get it for nothing or that somehow the rich would pay for it but the rich aren't paying for it the middle class and the Working Poor are paying for it but they're not paying for it honestly through increased legitimate taxes they are paying for it dishonestly through the inflation tax but the main reason the government loves to pay for stuff with the inflation tax is because it never accepts responsibility for levying that tax instead it blames it on other factors like greedy businessmen gouging their customers or Vladimir Putin or OPEC or any other convenient scapegoat and then what does government do government says oh now we need more laws and more regulations to protect the public from inflation government is the source of all this inflation yet the government uses the inflation it creates as a spring springboard to even more government power this is Black Friday the day that officially kicks off the holiday shopping season where Americans are supposed to go out and buy stuff and this is considered economic activity in the United States the fact that we go out and buy things most of the stuff that Americans buy for Christmas we didn't make all this stuff is imported and so it's only possible because of the economic growth outside the United States not inside the United States all we're doing is creating money and we're exporting our inflation to the rest of the world in exchange for their good I mentioned about the holiday Black Friday where Americans are out there shopping the problem with Americans is we're consuming and not producing and nowhere is that more evident than when you look at the ports because I mentioned that one of the things that Dubai has as an economic Advantage is where it's located and they're able to have a port that has several ports but their largest port is the 11th largest port in the world and the reason that this port does so much business it's not that Dubai is manufacturing so much stuff that it's exporting what Dubai does is it Imports and then re-exports a lot of stuff because of how efficiently it operates and because of the lack of Duties but I thought I would take a look just to put this in perspective when it comes to Ports of the top 10 ports in the world China has the number one port and it has six of the top 10 ports in the world and it has 16 of the top 50 ports the top port in the United States ranks number 17 and America only has four of the top 50 ports yes the population of China is a little over four times greater than the population of the United States and so they roughly have four times the number of ports that we have in the top 50 but they have six ports in the top ten and we don't even have one plus even though China has a huge population the per capita income in America dwarfs the per capita income in China you would expect a lot more ports in proportion to the population here in the United States than they have in China and that's not true and the main problem is when it comes to ports in America is one-way traffic because stuff comes in but the containers leave empty and so there's a lot of trade that doesn't take place whereas in China not only does China import a lot but it exports a lot and so the volume of the trade is much greater maybe we should move a little slower and give the markets a little more time to react to the hikes that we've already put in place acknowledging the fact that there's a lag so whenever the markets get that type of rhetoric from the fed the trader sees on it and that's why you had the rally in the stock market but more important than the reaction in the stock market is the reaction in the currency Market the dollar got hit hard on Wednesday and in fact it's falling again here on Friday morning then I think we could really start seeing a weakening dollar which again is going to be very problematic for the FED because the weakening dollar is going to put more upward pressure on inflation and ironically of course the reason the dollar is weakening is because the markets think that the FED is winning his fight against inflation and so it won't have to fight as hard in the future and that is removing the supports from beneath the dollar causing the dollar to tank and now the very inflation that the markets thought the Fed was making progress in fighting is actually going to get worse so the FED will be a victim of its its own success when it comes to inflation but when the markets perceive this I think it's really going to accelerate the movement out of U.S dollars and into Alternatives in fact if you look at what's happening in the stock market itself it's exactly what I've been forecasting with respect to the continued rotation out of momentum into value I've been repeatedly saying that this next move up in the stock market is not going to be led by the leadership of the bubble that these tech stocks companies that don't earn any money are not going to be leading the way it's going to be value it's going to be dividend oriented stocks that are going to be the leaders in the next move up in the market and in fact not all stocks are going to move up a lot of these money losing companies are going to go down in an environment of high and Rising inflation and Rising long-term interest rates but if you really want to look at some out performance look at the gold and silver mining stocks this really is a stealth bull market in these mining stocks nobody is talking about a near 40 percent move up in Junior Gold Mining stock sure a lot of people are pointing to the move up in the NASDAQ which is a third of this move this move is happening in obscurity which as far as I'm concerned is great for the Bulls I don't want anybody talking about the rally in Gold stocks I don't want anybody buying gold stocks I think what's probably going to happen is gold stocks are going to double maybe triple off their lows before the mainstream media even starts talking about the rise and of course when they start talking about it they may look at it skeptically it may take an even bigger increase before they get on board but that's why I recommend that people not wait for investing in gold stocks to become all the rage invest in this sector long before then because that's when you can buy the stocks cheap because in order to buy something cheap you can't be in competition with a lot of other people because when you have lots of buyers they bid up the price and then the price isn't cheap so what we're basically seeing now is The Empire Strikes Back right and so if anyone has seen the Star Wars Trilogy the original one you know you had the you know the the initial movie and then you had a response to that right so if you look back in the past couple years we had this we had this gigantic inflationary response we had all these like speculations and things like that and now we have a variety of central banks around the world mainly the Federal Reserve trying to fight back and regain some degree of uh like a stability with their currencies and the problem is that they you know they're about two decades too late right so you know a lot of these uh seeds were set in like the green spin era the 90s the 2000s and but nonetheless you know it was super high debt the GDP ratios they are now trying to fight back and and regain some nuclear currency stability and that's causing massive volatility in financial markets and specifically in sovereign debt markets because that's that's ultimately the limiting factor when you get to the end of the road in terms of uh you know kicking the can down the road so yeah so we've had four Decades of structurally declining interest rates you know little cyclical Rises uh but mainly are structurally downward and that allowed for all this debt accumulation and you know as a president uh you know appreciation as well but nonetheless yeah that combination of super high debt you know zero or Sub-Zero interest rates and then you know real world constraints now you're running to a prop now you have industry it's going sideways to up and you know this year mostly up and that puts a lot of pressure on the whole system right so all those all those like dollars like you know you had a dollars in your brokerage account you know based on your stock valuations you had dollars in your in your bank account you had dollars in your in your you know your treasury bonds and all those were supposed to represent claims for Real World Resources right but when the cost of those resources go up and then the valuations of those financialized you know second third fourth layer derivative assets start to go down uh it turns out that the vast majority of those claims are not really worth uh you know the real world resources that they thought they were especially if a significant portion of the population tries to call them in at once and that's essentially what we're going through and that's what we go through it in every kind of um generational disinflationary to inflationary cycle historically so indirectly yeah I mean I think we can separate the problem into the approximate cause meaning like the immediate cause uh and like the core underlying costs and so the court underlying cause is weak money if you have weak money artificial low interest rates currency they keep devaluing there's a very strong incentive to you know borrow money and buy hard assets right and so that that's that that's the structure we've been in for 40 years now the proximate cause is when some of those things start to blow up and so we had a bunch of proximate causes back in the 2008 crisis and now we're getting another wave of those now going back to the core cause the fact that money is weak Industries are artificially low and that's what allows for all of these constructs to exist to begin with and all these perverse incentives so for example if you are in a situation where you don't see a clear path where your assets are going to meet your liabilities you know one of the options is to try to take more risk to have those assets meet the liabilities and it you know and the small percent chance that you're right that could work out uh but of course you know any sort of wise person would hear that and say you know unless you're Stanley drucken Miller you're probably gonna mess it up and you're probably going to be even worse behind on meeting your liabilities and so that's again it's just another perverse incentive of the current system of weak money and you know we can we can tie this like I agree with your point about fragility like we can tie this back to you know for a regular person running their own finances or running a small business we can imagine on a totally unleveraged scenario right so you you have no debt other than maybe like a small mortgage right that you know with a very low kind of like a low to Value ratio but you know virtually no leverage no leverage in your business you have cash flows you have expenses and your expenses are below your your revenues by a considerable amounts and so you have a high savings rate now if you if you account a recession and you have a bad year it doesn't feel great but you don't go insolvent because you don't owe anyone anything and you have a huge buffer between your your like necessary expenses and your income and cash flows right so you you go through Ebbs and flows of the economy and you're very resilient even though of course some some years are more enjoyable than others now you know to contrast with that if you have a extremely high leverage system which can only exist in an environment of artificiality right if if interest rates are artificially low if there's an artificial incentive to borrow if money is weak compared to real assets and therefore incentivizes borrowing that weak money to buy those real assets it builds up all this leverage in the system and then when you have a contraction you're in a very different environment I mean if you owe a lot of money and your cash flows contract you could go and solve it a lot faster compared to that prior example of someone who's totally unlevered and is just Why like riding the wave of the economy and so we're in that second system globally where we have super high debt to you know GDP ratios uh debt to you know both on the Sovereign level and the price private level and that's why we're in aggregate in such a fragile state at the current time and it's and it's I get it so you can trace it back to the individual private participants that made bad decisions but then at the deeper level you can tie it into the like the central bank and the pause maker uh incentives where one they always bail out the system when it gets bad enough and two they artificially lower interest rates in order to purposely incentivize higher debt accumulation foreign
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