저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2023년 미국 증시는 부진할 것이라는 결론. 주식 밸류에이션: S&P500 PER은 2022년 약 20% 하락 후에도 20배 수준으로 비싼 편이며, 과거 평균 15~16배 대비 높다. 높은 PER은 제로금리와 양적완화라는 통화정책의 산물이었고 금리 인상으로 이제 사라지고 있어 정상화가 필요하다. 기업 이익도 저금리 시기에 부풀려진 것이라 하락할 것이다. 경기: 2023년은 경기침체로 시작할 가능성이 크며, 2022년에도 이미 침체였다고 본다. 시장은 얕은 침체를 기대하지만 실제 침체는 더 심각할 것이다. 연준이 QE와 금리 인하로 대응하더라도 미국 주식에 좋은 해가 되긴 어렵다. 아크 이노베이션 ETF(캐시 우드): 2022년 67% 하락했으나 투자자 순유입이 이어졌다. 2023년에는 투매(항복)가 나오고 캐시 우드도 보유 종목을 매도해야 하므로 이 ETF 종목들이 추가 폭락할 것이라고 주장. 비트코인: 이자·배당이 없는 순수 위험자산이며, 안전자산으로 전환될 가능성은 낮다. 2022년 그레이스케일 비트코인 신탁은 76% 하락했다. 2023년 호들러들의 투매로 1만 달러 아래, 어쩌면 5천 달러 아래까지 떨어질 수 있으나 제로까지는 아니라고 봄. 비트코인 붕괴의 해는 2022년이 아니라 2023년이 될 것이다. 금: 2022년 보합, 은은 약 2.5% 상승. 비트코인이 실패한 대안 자산이 되면서 2023년에는 금이 빛날 것이라고 전망.
다듬은 글
foreign most of the people were saying that this was likely to be a up year and why because last year was a big down year in fact it was one of the worst years ever I'll get into that in a moment but because the market was so weak in 2022 historically when you have a down year it's followed by an up year so everybody just assumes that history is going to repeat and they have absolutely no conception of why the situation is very different now than it was following prior down Years first of all yes the stock market was down big in 2022 in fact the s p had its biggest annual decline since 2008 but it's not cheap if you look at the PE of the s p even after a near 20 percent decline in 2022 it's still trading at around 20 times earnings that's not cheap in fact that is expensive for stocks if you look historically at stock market valuations before the 2000 stock market bubble before Alan Greenspan was there artificially suppressing interest rates and blowing bubble after bubble with each successive fed chairman adding more pages to the same Playbook the average PE on stocks was maybe about 15 or 16 times earnings when stocks went below 10 times earnings that's when they were cheap when they Rose above 20 times earnings which they did occasionally they were expensive that's where we are now now yes we did maintain High PES with zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing but if you're looking at that in the rear view mirror with the FED hiking rates and fighting inflation we should go back to a normal PE we shouldn't be staying at these certainly high valuations that were a function of monetary policy that at least for now no longer exists but what's even more important than the historic PE is the fact that the E earnings is inflated and is going to come down U.S companies are not going to be able to maintain current earnings because those earnings were manufactured in an era of artificially low interest rates we're likely to start the year in a recession in fact I think we were in recession in 2022 but nobody wants to acknowledge that but just about everybody who is in denial of the 2022 recession expects a recession in 2023 yet they still expect the stock market to do well even though we're going to be in recession why well first everybody expects the recession to be very mild and very shallow and that's where they're wrong they're right about the recession but they're wrong about the severity and the depth but also what are the reasons that so many people are confident that the recession is going to be short and shallow is because they also expect the FED to come to the Rescue by going back to QE and by reversing the rate hikes with rate Cuts but even if it does that it's not going to be a good year for U.S stocks the real risky stocks like the ones that Kathy Wood owns in the arc Innovation ETF that ETF was down 67 percent in 2022 and it closed the year 80 below its 2021 high and even though it was down that much in 2022 The Arc Innovation fund had net inflows investors kept putting money into the fund despite the fact that it was down 67 percent of the year so nobody threw in the towel nobody took their chips off the table and left that is a negative sign because if you're looking for capitulation there was none investors kept averaging down in this fund I think in 2023 you're gonna get that capitulation you're gonna see net redemptions out of this fund and now Kathy Wood is going to have to sell all these stocks because she's been a buyer of these stocks even though they've been clobbered and most of her stocks are at 52-week lows that decline came despite the fact that she's been a steady buyer all last year so when she turns into a seller having been the biggest buyer Look Out Below a lot of these stocks are going to collapse from here the even worse than the arc ETF was the performance of the grayscale Bitcoin trust which is also one of the Holdings in the arc ETF but the grayscale Bitcoin trust finished the year down 76 percent that is an enormous decline especially if you consider that the grayscale Bitcoin trust was marketed as an alternative to gold as a safe haven as a store of value gold was actually flat on the year maybe down a few bucks it's hard to say silver was actually up about two and a half percent on the year but being flat is a whole lot better than being down 76 percent Bitcoin has no return at all I mean you're pretty much certain what your return is it's zero because Bitcoin doesn't pay interest it doesn't pay dividends it doesn't pay rent it pays nothing so it is pure risk but really nothing could happen I mean I guess the gamble that everybody is making on bitcoin is that it'll become a safe haven asset in the future it's not a safe haven asset now but at some point it's going to magically transform itself from a high risk asset to an ultra low risk say it facet now I don't really see how it could possibly make that transition I don't even think it's possible for it to happen and so what is the point of Bitcoin if it's just a risk asset when it was an alternative to Gold okay you could buy gold or you could buy digital gold 2.0 they were arguing that Bitcoin was better than gold but can you argue that Bitcoin is better than all these stocks in the NASDAQ each and every one if you want to risk asset why not bet on one of these companies that could do really well or or there's twenty thousand twenty one thousand other cryptocurrencies they're all risk assets so who's to say Bitcoin is the best because if it's no longer digital gold if it's just a risk asset then how is it different than the 21 000 other risk assets that we used to call cryptocurrencies but now they're just crypto we kind of dropped the word currency because whenever I hear anybody talking about cryptocurrencies they don't even use the word currency anymore it's just crypto like crypto what like there's any value there there is no value there so Bitcoin failed as a currency then it failed this digital goal then it failed as a non-correlated asset I don't expect it to have any better luck as a risk asset it's not going to succeed as a risk asset either it's going to fail again one of the things I think was interesting too about 2022 is just like none of the die hards in The kathywood Arc Innovation fund they didn't throw in the towel they didn't give up they still worshiped their Messiah the same thing in crypto there is very little nervousness I mean people are upset that you know they've lost a lot but they haven't given up they still expect Bitcoin to make new highs I mean any day now it's going to be a moon shot so we haven't had any capitulation really in Bitcoin now some people have lost a lot of money because they had their crypto in an exchange that went bankrupt and so they lost all their money that way but they didn't sell out and so I think that again is going to happen in 2023 I think you're going to see a big capitulation among the hodle gang you're gonna see a lot of people selling Bitcoin and that's why I think the downside is significant much below 10 000 probably even below five thousand I don't think Bitcoin is going to zero out in 2023 I do expect there's going to be some people buying on that huge dip as they always have it's just going to be another big dip but I think eventually that's where Bitcoin is headed and I think that's going to be ironic because the year that Bitcoin is really going to break down which I believe is 2023 not 2022 that's when I think gold is really going to shine
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