저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 21세기는 아시아의 세기이며, 미국은 과도한 부채로 쇠퇴 국면에 들어설 가능성이 크다. 아시아 성장: 중국과 아시아로 자금과 인구가 몰리고 있으며, 중국은 세계 2위 경제이자 최대 외환보유국이다. 일본도 막대한 자산을 보유한다. 미국 부채 문제: 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이 되었고, 과도한 지출은 쇠퇴로 이어지는 역사적 패턴이 있다. 영국의 사례를 들었다. 정책 전망: 미국이 지출을 대폭 줄이고 부채를 감축할 가능성은 낮다고 본다. 중앙은행 리스크: 과도한 통화 발행이 시장, 물가, 금리를 왜곡하며 이것이 가장 큰 위험이라고 주장한다. 연준이 일시적 인플레이션이라 했던 판단도 비판했다. 경기침체 전망: 침체가 널리 예상되고 있지만 대중의 예상은 대개 틀리므로 지금 당장 침체는 아닐 수도 있다고 봤다. 중국 개방이 세계 경제에 부양이 될 수 있다고 언급했다. 시장 전망: 대선 3년차는 보통 주식시장이 좋았다는 역사적 경향을 언급했으나, 모두가 아는 것은 대개 틀린다며 낙관에 무게를 두지 않았다. 장기적으로 침체는 올 수 있다고 봤다. 리스크 인식: 현재 하락폭(약 20%)은 심각하지 않지만, 앞으로 고통을 감내해야 할 것이라고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
foreign whether we like it or not the 21st century is going to be the century of Asia in the century of China you know 40 years ago there was no China now it's the second largest economy in the world etc etc they're gigantic changes and prosperity taking place in Asia and I mean I can look out the window and see it anybody who doesn't know about it can just look out the window or come to Asia you'll see it's astonishing the changes that have been taking place but you know the same thing happened in England in the early 19th century astonishing changes took look at America you know America was absurd 150 years ago people thought it was a joke they quickly learned that America was astonishing success that a lot of the money is flocking to Asia as you probably know China's got the largest foreign currency reserves in the world Japan is number two Korea has huge numbers many Asian countries have staggering amounts of assets that they have built up so the people with money is coming to Asia but also some immigration nothing like it was in America the 19th century or even the 20th century but no people are I live in Singapore now and I see more and more foreigners uh all the time somebody's coming not just with their money but with their bodies as well China is having problems and they will have more but I don't see anybody else on the horizon that 30 years from now 80 years from now will be as successful as China the United States is the largest detonation in the history of the world I don't like that but it's a fact I have to deal with that 40 years ago America was still a creditor Nation so changes are taking place and the world if you want to be successful you have to recognize changes and adapt to those changes do I like the fact that America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world no I have two teenage children but those are facts and we have to deal with that America continues to have a lot of power but history shows that when countries get over extended either economically militarily politically whatever they usually peek and go into decline I'm not talking my opinion this is a simple historic fact 100 years ago Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two 50 years later it was bankrupt literally bankrupt the IMF had to bail out what had been the richest most powerful country in the world go back in history it has always been changing and it always will when countries get over extended they usually wind up in Decline well what should we do we should we should cut spending with an ax no with a chainsaw you know we we have this gigantic debt and it gets higher every day we should cut spending we should start reducing our debt are we going to do it of course not David come on if you ran on a policy in Washington maybe you would get elected but after a short time people would say admit this is very painful we don't want to do this anymore nobody likes pain even if they know what's good for you so now is America going to do it no I mean I wish we would but I I know simple facts America is certainly I mean if you said to most people in America where do you want to go they would say America where do you want to invest they would say America but that's because most people still don't know the facts just as many people did not know the facts about the UK or about other countries that peaked and went into a decline yes no America's great we've got great PR for great movies great TV Great lots of things but that does not mean that beneath the surface there are not serious problems developing when things are good for a while people get overextended they get over confident they think it's new investors come in new investors call their friends and tell them oh I've discovered this new thing called the stock market it's so much fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money you know and that's always happens at the end of what it has always has happened it's happening again things get overextended things get expensive and we leave we always have a bear Market less than two years ago that the Federal Reserve was saying there's not going to be inflation and then they said oh it's temporary don't worry this is transitory you know these guys don't know what they're doing most Central Bank officials or bureaucrats or academics they don't know how the world works the biggest risk of the federal a central banks not just the Federal Reserve the guy in Japan has said you know he will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he does goes to work every day and friends as fast as he can we have a lot of central banks doing things like that therein lies our problem whenever you have a lot of money printing it distorts markets it distorts inflation it distorts interest rates and gigantic debt you know 1980 America was a creditor Nation we were still accredited now we're the largest detonation in the history of the world big things have changed since then but not for the good at least not as far as the other American which I am now I see what's happened there was no red I mean it was still red China then there was still Soviet Union there a lot there's a huge things that have changed in the world the problem is it's very rare in history that everybody has known and the recession is coming you know this is the most broadcast and most uh forecast recession that I've ever seen in my life and knowing that people most people are usually wrong I would say we're probably not there depends on where you're talking about but for instance China has been closed now China is opening up that's going to give a big boost to the world economy because they are the second largest economy in the world so I would not be surprised if we're if it's not a recession yet I expected certainly to come the third year of a presidential cycle in American history usually Been a Good Year in the American Stock Market you know and this is the year three coming up and the reason that happened is politicians try to spend a lot of money preparing for year four the next election so they can get reelected so I I would imagine that things are really better than that we we read just because the world doesn't work that way if everybody knows something it's usually wrong that's not to say that there won't be a recession coming eventually it's just that this I have never seen in my investing career or read about one that was so widely anticipated and so widely forecast the world just doesn't work that way when everybody knows something it's usually not right I've been around long enough to know that 19 or 20 percent is not very serious waiting list down 70 or 80 percent whether you see companies going bankrupt left right and Center so far this is not fun do not get me wrong this is not fun but there's certainly not dramatic or even significant in the history of financial markets so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts
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