저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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2022년 4월 시점 인도 증시에 대한 Vijay Kedia의 낙관적 견해 인터뷰이며, 결론은 인도 시장은 구조적 변화 속에서 2021년 하반기 고점 이후 조정을 마치고 중소형주가 먼저 신고가를 경신할 것이라는 전망이다. [시장 구조 및 사이클] 2003년 이후 강세장이 5년 가량 지속되고 약세장은 9개월 이내로 짧아지는 구조적 변화가 있었으며, 대형 강세장 뒤에는 대형 약세장이 온다는 패턴을 강조한다. 지수 고점은 2021년 9~10월경으로 보며 이 조정의 바닥은 2022년 3월이라고 본다. 지수보다 중소형주가 먼저 신고가를 낼 것이라고 전망한다. [원자재 및 지정학] 원자재 강세는 몇 년 더 지속될 것으로 보고 포트폴리오는 100% 투자 상태를 유지한다고 밝힌다. 지정학 리스크는 항상 존재했으며 장기 투자자는 걱정할 필요가 없고 오히려 위기 시 기회가 된다는 입장이다. [종목 및 섹터 언급] 디지털 신규상장주(페이티엠, 조마토 등)는 예측 가능성이 없어 투자하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 식품·음료 섹터는 투자 없음. 특수화학은 Sudarshan Chemical 보유(2014~2019년 10배 상승 후 최근 2~3년 정체, 조정 후 재상승 기대). 여행은 Mandara Holidays 보유 및 확대. 통신장비는 Tejas Networks 보유(Tata 인수 후 5~10년 긍정적 전망, 단기 실적 부진 무관). IT는 Ramco Systems 보유(장기 긍정, 단기 부진 가능). 은행은 PSU 은행 2곳을 단기 투자로 보유하며 상황에 따라 매도 가능성 언급. [투자 조언] 신규 투자자에게는 직접 투자보다 뮤추얼펀드를 권하며, 트레이딩 성공 확률은 약 1%라고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to this business today market special i'm udain mukherjee with me as always is abba bakaya and our market guest for today an old timer on the lal street vijay kedia managing director of kds securities vijay a pleasure to have you on the show but how have you read the market over the last few weeks because we've had a pullback from the uh from the ukraine scare but from here on do you think it's a phase of consolidation and correction that the market is going through or do you think something has fundamentally changed after the after the big up move of last year okay good morning uh uh or good afternoon whatever then and ava i will tell you according to me according to my limited knowledge i think there has been a major structural change in indian capital market and it has happened after 2003 if you will notice that before 2003 all the bear markets were longer and bull markets were very short they're shorter compared to the bear market now in 2003 i think first time in the history it has happened that bull market lasted for 245 years and the bear market lasted not more than nine months and before that it used to happen in just an opposite way no bull market ever lasted more than nine months or no bear market ever lost it less than nine months in 2000 after 2003 and seven or eight bull market was for five years and bear market was over within nine months so and the same thing has happened in 2020 and remember the 2007 2008 bear market 2003-7 bull market was mother of all the bull market i always say that mother of all the bull markets are always followed by mother of all the bear markets same thing happened in 2008 same thing happened in 2020 again the mother of all this or a father of all this bull market started and it ended with father of all the bear market in form of covet and all but indexed from high to low made high to low was made within nine months and index just turned down from from there to never to touch it again so this is what i feel that there has been a total structural shift in in this market and somehow i think that this market is actually counting a table of 21.
first stop was 20 21 000 second top was 42 000 now it was around 63 000 maybe next top will be somewhere around 84 000 or something so i think there is a complete shift fundamental shift in structure where are we now vijay but do you think uh we will we start making new highs sometime in 2022 again or do you see this process of the broader market consolidation i'm not talking about the nifty and the sensex but many mid caps smaller large caps have corrected between 20 and 30 some even more do you think this process is coming to an end and we'll start seeing new highs again or do you see this phase lasting longer you see i think according to me this bull market or bull phase or bull run whatever you call it it had ended in 2021 september or october somewhere around that time index had made made uh all-time high and after that it consolidated it fell down and i think during this march 22 whatever index hectares whatever bottom index had made i think according to me that is the bottom and forget about the index i have said this number of times this index is very deceptive i am investor in a mid cap and i feel that all these mid caps are going to show a new high uh before the index uh shows so this is what my perception all my investments are you know made in this theory only okay let me ask you about uh something else vijay but forget about the index but as an individual investor one major theme that you must be grappling with right now is the kind of rise in commodity prices that we've seen over the last few months i mean as a professional investor how have you incorporated that into your own investment philosophy and strategy you see so far mine i have understood my all my investments uh till date none of my investments are having a negative impact because of the rise in the commodity price i think uh so that is why i am not much bothered and so far commodities concern i i feel that uh this boom in commodity is going to remain here for many more years to come and uh so this is what what my strategy is this and i am i'm still staying invested vijaya broader markets have surprised somewhat of late we expected sluggishness to continue there but perhaps the market is seeing some value uh given that they're not looking as steep vis-a-vis some of their larger peers uh what's your sense and are you also cherry-picking in the broader markets actually i can't cherry pick makeup because i have already picked all my cherries i am 100 invested into in this market so whatever market is giving an opportunity your market is falling and rising i am just like a spectator i am just watching this game and i don't have a liquidity to invest further and i am comfortable in all my whatever investments i have made more or less i'm comfortable so i'm just watching them vijay as an old-time investor how have you approached this massive correction in the newly listed digital stocks because they listed somewhere and then they took off and the correction was equally brutal do you feel that these stocks have corrected enough now in this fall or do you still find difficult to justify the kind of valuations they trade at just from a technical point of view i think maybe they must have touched their or they have made their bottom but i am not an investor in any of such years because it doesn't give me peace of mind where there is no predictability i cannot invest in such shares only also but at the same time i am invested in many technology or few technology companies which are old and listed so i am happy there and i'm not looking to invest in all these companies like paytm or zamato or at any price so let me ask you about another industry but which is not quite commodities but somewhat linked to it the whole food processing and beverage industry i think you may have some investments there or because there are a large number of mid cap and small cap companies there what is your approach to that space now again i do not have any view of course in a rising economy all the sectors should do well they will also do well so i i do not have any investment in food and processing industry i have some investment in specialty chemicals and some telecom product companies and travel and tourism and all but in particular i do not have any investment in food processing industry all right vijay what would you recommend i know you're fully invested but for a retail investor who's perhaps just got into this market before it's starting to look shaky and they're wondering whether that recession is going to hit how would you advise them to balance their portfolio at a time like this i think i always advise new investors coming for the first time into this market that they should invest through mutual fund they shouldn't try investing directly into this market this market is very risky and uh a lot of people every time when they come whatever i interact with they are asking me then where should should i bring their uh capital so just to get some capital they want to invest they want to go for trading and all so i always tell them that's a very risky uh you know way to create money in this market and i have tweeted also many times that there are two ways one can create capital into this market either through trading but uh chances of getting uh chances of getting success is uh one percent and failure is 99 and second ways to get capital is to be frugal in your daily life where chances of being successful is 99 and failure is one percent so i think any new investors should follow this and invest through mutual fund you mentioned tourism vijay let me ask you about that space hotels in particular and even some of the retail stocks what makes you optimistic about them because in the past the one criticism against this space is that while periodically they'll give you rallies over a long period of time because their return on equities are usually not great they have not created great wealth for shareholders why do you think this time is different or are you just playing it as a bounce back trade as tourism comes back post covered uh i will tell you i have invested in my holidays that's that's a disclosure and disclaimer that's not a recommendation and i invested in this company years back and now i increased my holding into my holidays last year for the simple matter that even in the during the crisis of it the company made a cash profit so they have a different model as you know it is totally different than all these hotels company and all so their membership fee based income they are generating so uh so what you are saying actually it's not applicable to mandara holidays okay you also said specialty chemicals that's a white basket which part of the specialty chemicals industry excites you but with your suitable disclosures could you tell us why you're optimistic on these companies because some of them have expanded valuation significantly over the last three years yeah so i will tell you in 2014 uh somewhere around 2014 i had invested in sudarshan chemical and that is the only chemical stocks or specialty chemical pigment stocks i am holding in my portfolio and after from 2014 to 2019 the stock went up 10 times so 12 times from where i had bought and and in last two three years stock did nothing i think their expansion is going to be over the next next one and a half and two years so that is why uh company was not able to generate adequate profit and in a general specialty chemical market also i think that first phase of that bull run any specialty chemical is over because other chemical stocks all most of all all good companies have gone up by five times and ten times in last two three years so i think now the company all this sector is consolidating and before the new bull run will start vijay what are you making of the geopolitical risks in the market the way this may play out on the import export sector as well you know how would you position yourselves there again you know even if it's if it's just in terms of uh um you know kind of guidance you'd like to share with some of our uh newer investors you know in terms of how you see things playing out you say i'll tell you ever since i am in this market i am facing this geopolitical risk america is every time in war for the last 30 years they have for 13 wars and spent 13 trillion this is what i tweeted also a few days back so the problem is this when there is a uh strong country fighting a war with a weak country i think that's not a big issue the problem arises when a strong country fights with her with a strong country so there is a uh song i have written i will just recite few lines for you that uh macro can be micro can we slow down can be scale can be us i am following the same thing yes so as a long-term investor you shouldn't worry about it all these geopolitical risks will always be there sometimes us is playing the game sometime russia is playing the game so i'm not none of my investments uh actually i don't change my investments uh easily because of some all these issues and all they come and they go until unless of course it turned into some kind of nuclear war or something happens then we will not be left to see our portfolio also so that is all right so i think that's an opportunity every every time whenever this kind of scenario has come it has already always given an opportunity for it to investors vijay you spoke about telecom equipment i think you're a significant investor in the just networks if i'm not mistaken that stock has had an up and down run i mean that it had a big down phase and of late has been doing really well give us the rationale on why you would be optimistic on that name so i had invested in this company in 2019 in a meaningful way or 19 or 20 i think in 20 in a minute during during the covet so they are uh catering to telecom companies and all these telecom companies were under pressure for last five seven eight years as we all know and that is why company was also under pressure and suddenly after 2020 government also got up and those telecom companies the balance sheet also started you know uh you know making uh educate profit to invest in telecom sector and this company is catering they are into fiverr network and 3g 4g and now 5g so now everybody all even every company wants to uh you know from 2g got into 4g and now 4g into 5g so i think according to me and this should be having it uh you know good five ten years now as you know that tata has taken over this company now tata is the m of the affair and tata tcs and all these combined can create a according to me i am i may be biased i may be wrong and again it's a disclaimer and disclosure that i have wasted interest in this company but according to me they should do well there is a court of mine audience stay in a sunrise industry at any cost stay out of a sunset industry at any cost i feel this telecom equipment and the telecom is a sunset industry so i have to be there at any cost doesn't matter whether uh p is high or valuation is i or they don't make profit for one quarter two quarters or for one year as long as the structured broader picture broader picture is bright i would be i would remain invested okay i heard you say that you ha arden invested in many small and mid-cap i.t companies which parts of the i.t chain are you invested in and if you could take us through the names and why you're bullish on these no one tech like this telecom technology company what i meant was stages only another company i have invested that is uh ramco systems uh again it's a disclosure and wasted interest i have in this company i had again bought in 2020 during the covey time and stocks did well but after that it went up from 60 rupees it went up to 700 800 rupees and i can feel back to 400 rupees so they are still struggling uh but i think the future for telecom for uh this technology product company in india is very bright for the simple matter what i have learned what i have read that all these uh technology product companies in abroad or in the mainly in the usa are are selling at 10 times 15 times or even 20 times their revenue so in that matrix ramco systems very cheap but somehow companies making losses and not doing well so maybe it may not perform for next maybe three months or six months or nine months i don't know but overall long term picture i think this all all this kind of companies are having a bright future all right uh vijay give us an example and i'm not gonna see this as you promoting any stock or suggesting a buy or any stock so i'll do all the disclaimers beforehand uh but you know you have a varied portfolio uh and we've been hearing a lot of reports of um you know certain investors who've really seen manifold returns across some of their investments would you like to highlight you know a particular stock that has worked for you or a story that's worked for you and perhaps more than the stock itself or what your thinking was behind it when you first invested and how it's now led to uh you know fantastic returns money you mean some particular company yeah you want me to talk yes yeah so one example i gave to you about tejas i was following this company for last five six years and company was not doing well so i was just i was just waiting for the turnaround point or inflection point where the sector will start making profits so that they can invest in the product and telecom can serve them similarly i had bought sudarshan chemical in 2014 when all the chemical companies were not doing well and uh i was in china i remember and i was meeting people and i realized that maybe future for uh chemical companies in india is on the verge of you know it's on the revival phase and maybe china may lose some grip uh to india so and i was following sudarshan chemical for last 10 years so this is what i what i usually do i had i was following weber global for for six seven years before i bought in 2014.
six seven or eight years so this is what i do i just if i like the management if i like the product if i don't like the current balance sheet i just put it on my radar and i just keeping a track on the company and waiting to find that bottom of that you you know so that bottom this is what i am doing and when when i feel that now the time has come so i invest i may go wrong also but this is what i am following visio one question on a part of the market which is actually underperformed and it's probably the segment which is most overwhelmed by many large investors and small investors which is the banking and financial services what are your thoughts on that space do you think it's a good time to be accumulating these names or do you see the underperformance continuing uh do you have exposure to financial stocks as a as a group in your portfolio at all i will tell you first of all i'm managing my own money so i don't have any compulsion to invest in each and every sector so that liberty i have and i have limited money and i want i like to buy a big chunk of shares in one single company so i don't have to uh unnecessary i have to diversify but uh recently i've invested in one banking uh two banks okay uh and both are psu's banks i've invested in them thinking that maybe this is what the news report i read every day that whatever provisions they had to make they have it has already been made and now maybe some add back will happen or not but that is my transitory uh investments uh currently they are of course they are doing good for me but the transitory investment the moment i will get some another idea some technology company or something so i may sell and switch over to them okay vijay good talking to you today and thank you very much for sharing so many ideas from your portfolio wish you great luck for 2022 and thank you very much again thank you thank you both if you like the video do like comment share and subscribe
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