저자: MollyJane/출연전문가TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
2019년 2월 크립토 주간 소식 정리: 이번 주 결론은 ICO 열기는 2018년보다 줄었지만 2017년보다 여전히 크고, 2019년 비트코인 상승 기대는 Tom Lee의 전망이 중심이라는 것이다. ICO 시장: CoinSchedule 데이터 기준 1월 ICO 모금액은 2.916억 달러로 2018년 초보다 낮지만 2017년 1월(약 8천만 달러)보다 크며, 활성 ICO 63개와 예정 18개가 확인됨. JPM Coin: JPMorgan이 기관 고객 대상 고정가치 토큰 JPM Coin을 출시하며 국제 결제(SWIFT 대체), 재무 서비스, 증권 거래 효율화를 목표로 하고, 초기에는 극히 일부 자금만 투입될 예정. 진행자는 이를 비트코인 가치를 낮출 수 있는 요인으로 제기함. Coinbase 클라우드 백업: 개인키를 Google Drive·iCloud에 암호화 백업하는 기능이 발표됐으나 Kraken CEO Jesse Powell 등이 클라우드 보안 취약성을 비판함. Tom Lee 2019 전망(Fundstrat): 달러 약세, 기관 자금 유입(기부금·연기금), Bakkt 출시, 확장성 솔루션 진전 등을 근거로 2019년 가격 상승을 예상. 기술적으로 비트코인이 200일선 아래에 있으나 8월경 재돌파 가능성을 제시. 반면 SEC의 규제 신중함은 회복을 늦추는 요인으로 언급. QuadrigaCX: 창업자 사망 후 콜드월렛 약 1억 4,500만 달러가 묶인 사건이 계속되며, 실수로 약 103 BTC(약 50만 달러)가 콜드월렛으로 송금됐다는 보고가 나옴. Ernst & Young이 독립 제3자로 임명되어 기기(노트북·휴대폰·USB)를 확보함. 베네수엘라: 크립토 규제기관 SUNACRIP가 송금 규정을 시행(월 한도, 최대 15% 수수료), Petro 구매 한도도 설정됨. LocalBitcoins 거래량은 사상 최고치를 기록. 기타: Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne의 블록체인 정부 효율화 주장과 베네수엘라 관련 발언이 소개됨. 마지막은 JPMorgan과 크립토의 관계를 농담조로 정리하며 마무리. 출연자 전망 요약: Tom Lee는 2019년 비트코인 상승을, 진행자는 JPM Coin의 비트코인 가치 잠식 가능성을 제기하는 중립적 질문 형태로 제시함.
다듬은 글
Don't call it a comeback, but this week crypto analytics website CoinSchedule revealed that ICOs are still a big deal. Not 2018 big, 2017 big. Their data indicates that in January, $291.6 million was raised via ICOs, substantially less than in early 2018. But that's up from January 2017, when ICOs raised about $80 million.
The data also shows at least 63 ICOs are active, and another 18 are upcoming. Also this week, Maduro gets desperate, the Quadriga debacle continues, Fundstrat's 2019 crypto outlook is out, and the crypto community turns to derivatives to survive the crypto winter. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Molly Jane, and this is your Hodler's Digest.
Let's have a look at the latest market updates. In an unprecedented move for a major bank, JPMorgan Chase is launching its own crypto. The "JPM Coin" will aim to increase settlement efficiency, initially in three areas. The JPM Coin will help speed up international settlements by major corporations, which currently take longer on SWIFT.
In addition, treasury services and securities transactions stand to benefit if applications for JPMorgan expand. Only the bank's big institutional clients who have passed regulatory checks will be able to use the fixed-value token backed by the bank. JPMorgan plans to roll out its nascent crypto gradually; a tiny fraction of the funds involved in the three areas would involve JPM Coin initially.
This is a surprising move, to say the least. Last year Jamie Dimon was infamous in the crypto community for calling Bitcoin a fraud. In a segment for CNBC, host Andrew Ross Sorkin questioned whether other cryptos would survive if JPM was successful. Does this validate the world of other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and give them more value over time? Or does this eventually crowd out the need, and even the value proposition, of Bitcoin, and therefore lower its value?
He skipped the part about why Satoshi created Bitcoin in the first place, largely as a response to the 2008 financial crisis, in which JPMorgan played no small part. This is hardly surprising from a man who, during Occupy Wall Street, was fielding calls from bank executives who were growing increasingly worried about the protests.
Major crypto exchange Coinbase is about to launch a new feature for its software wallet. Users will be able to back up their private keys on cloud storage platforms such as Google Drive and iCloud. This backup feature is designed to give customers an alternative way to access funds in case their private keys get lost or stolen.
According to the announcement, private keys will be encrypted and stored on a cloud platform, accessible only with the wallet's password. Neither Coinbase nor the cloud service provider will have access to customers' funds, as the user is the only one who has the password to access them.
Unlike other centralized exchanges, which are in full control of customers' funds, Coinbase fully aligns with the decentralized nature of cryptocurrency by allowing customers to store their funds in a decentralized wallet. That also comes at the price of greater responsibility for users, who are the sole custodians of their private keys.
The backup feature met with a fair share of criticism on social media, as many users pointed out that cloud services are unsuitable for storing private keys because they have proven vulnerable to hacks and security breaches. Among the critics of Coinbase's cloud backup feature is Kraken CEO Jesse Powell. He wrote: "Cloud storage, while convenient, is constantly compromised, especially with all the SIM porting. 99% chance the people who would unwittingly use this do not have passwords strong enough to withstand professional cracking."
Powell's words are reminiscent of the 2014 "Great Fappening," when a group of hackers sneaked into Hollywood iCloud accounts, leading to the biggest leak of celebrity nudes in history.
2019 will bring some joy to the crypto world, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors, a US-based financial advisory firm. In the recently published 2019 Outlook, Fundstrat's researchers said that, while it is still too early to talk about mass adoption, a significant increase in crypto prices is expected for 2019.
As Fundstrat's head analyst Tom Lee posted on Twitter, nine main factors will make Bitcoin rise again. First of all, the expected weakening of the U.S. dollar will have a positive influence on BTC prices. Researchers also expect an increase of institutional money coming into crypto, attracted by the development of investment vehicles and custody solutions in the space.
On the blockchain side, the progress of scalability solutions will also boost investors' confidence. However, some obstacles remain. For instance, the U.S. SEC's hesitant approach to crypto regulation is still playing a major role in slowing the market's recovery.
We talked to Tom Lee and asked him to give us more details on the report. There's regulated infrastructure that's really being developed, and I think the most important ones are the launch of Bakkt, which is going to happen sometime in 2019. We are starting to see chunks of new institutional money come in, and this is primarily through endowments and pensions.
We estimate that there are probably six endowments that have already invested in crypto out of a huge universe. There are hundreds of endowments, but it also looks like we've got the first pension funds too. One of the things that's kind of promising in 2019 is that Bitcoin will probably improve technically, because Bitcoin is now below its 200-day moving average. By August, it looks like Bitcoin is likely to cross back above its 200-day. That's the opposite of 2018, when Bitcoin fell below its 200-day and then spent most of the year below it.
The strange case of the Canadian crypto exchange QuadrigaCX and its locked cold wallets continues. This week it was revealed that the exchange supposedly transferred nearly $500K in BTC to its cold wallets by accident. The mishap apparently occurred earlier this month, adding further complications to the fate of the already embattled exchange.
The founder of QuadrigaCX, Gerald Cotten, died last year in India from complications of Crohn's disease. He was the only one with access to the cold wallet keys that held $145 million in crypto. Suspicions were raised when his death was reported an entire month after it happened, not to mention the fact that he filed a will just 12 days before his death.
As this story has unfolded, numerous internet sleuths have been busy. One analyst has found five addresses apparently associated with QuadrigaCX. Transactions sent to the addresses are about the same amount of Bitcoin Quadriga inadvertently sent to locked cold wallets. The analyst posted on Reddit that the BTC came either directly from a QCX wallet or one transfer removed.
The redditor went on to express the limits of their research: "At this point, due to plausible deniability and lack of transparency, we have reached the extent of what we (non-law enforcement) can 100% know for now." He added: "With minimal understanding of the BTC blockchain, though, there are some big leads we can follow, but can only speculate on."
Recently, Ernst & Young was appointed as an independent third party. The Big Four audit firm is monitoring the proceedings in a creditor protection case. They released a report with an update detailing the inadvertent transfer of 103 BTC to cold wallets and the ongoing efforts to retrieve funds. Ernst & Young secured various Quadriga electronic devices owned or used by Cotten, including four laptops, four cell phones, and three fully encrypted USB keys. The devices are believed to be in a safety deposit box rented by Ernst & Young.
Venezuela's crypto regulator SUNACRIP has set forth regulations, apparently already in effect, regarding the "requirements and procedures for the sending and receiving of remittances in crypto assets." There is a monthly limit, and SUNACRIP can take up to 15% commission on transfers. The minimum fee for a crypto transaction is about 28 cents.
Despite widespread derision from ordinary Venezuelans as well as internationally, regulators also felt the need to set a monthly limit on the Petro: 10 Petros a month, which comes to around $600. 50 Petros, or around $3,000, is the absolute limit, according to the regulator.
As we mentioned last week, trading volumes on the peer-to-peer platform LocalBitcoins surged to an all-time high in the country. Hyperinflation and economic and political turmoil have led Venezuelans to trade nearly $7 million a week. This new taxation is yet another typically ill-thought-out project from the corrupt regime that brought you the Petro. For instance, in 2013, Maduro allegedly took a $35 million bribe from a Brazilian construction company.
One man who pays some of his business taxes in crypto back in the U.S. is Overstock CEO Patrick M. Byrne. He recently proposed that blockchain could make government "superefficient and incapable of being bribed." However, Byrne's use of language when talking about Venezuela somewhat hints at a coup. In an interview with MarketWatch he said: "We could step into Venezuela with six laptops and create not only a functioning society but arguably one with the most advanced government systems in the world. We could bring them a central bank on the laptop." Let's hope his libertarian instincts keep him on the path of straight and decentralized.
If you are alone on Valentine's Day, you might be looking out the window, asking yourself questions like, "Is she really going out with him?" The same question could be asked about JPMorgan and crypto. So is this an unholy union fraught with betrayal and deceit, or will it be a love story for the ages? Let us know in the comments. And as always, remember to like, subscribe, and HODL.
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