저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 채널 진행자는 Jamie Dimon의 경고를 인용하며 경기침체 가능성과 금리 인하 불확실성을 강조하지만, 종목별 구체적 가격 전망은 제시하지 않음. 주제 1: Fed 선호 물가지표 둔화 - 진행자는 Fed 선호 물가지표(PCE)가 낮게 나온 것을 의심하며, Shadow Stats 기준 실제 인플레이션이 더 높다고 주장. - 10월 CPI 전년비 3%(9월 3.4%에서 하락)로 2년 반 만의 최저라는 보도를 인용하나, 식품·에너지 제외 근원물가도 둔화됐다고 언급. - 진행자는 체감 물가(식료품·에너지)와 공식 지표의 괴리를 지적. 주제 2: Fed 금리 정책 전망 - Fed 기준금리는 5.25~5.5%로 22년 만의 고점 수준에서 동결 중. - 12월 11~12일 FOMC에서 인하 기대는 낮다는 취지로 언급(Dimon 발언 해석 근거). - 진행자는 금리 인상이든 인하든 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다고 주장하며 Fed 신뢰도를 비판. 주제 3: Jamie Dimon 경고 해석 - Dimon은 뉴욕타임스 딜북 서밋에서 금리 상승 가능성과 이에 따른 경기침체 위험을 언급했다고 소개. - 진행자 해석: Dimon의 신중론은 대중이 아닌 금융권 고위층을 위한 '실탄 아끼기(keep your powder dry)' 조언이며, 지역은행 부실 시 JP모건의 인수 기회를 노린다는 것. - 진행자는 경기침체를 정상적 경기 순환의 일부로 보고, 침체 시 저평가 자산을 매수할 기회로 봐야 한다고 주장. 주제 4: 종목·자산 언급 - 대상 자산 중 구체적으로 언급된 종목·지수는 없음(은행·금융 섹터 간접 언급만 존재). 주제 5: 리스크 - 금리 인상·인하 모두 경기침체 및 인플레이션 재가속 리스크를 수반한다는 진행자 주장. - 공식 물가지표 신뢰도에 대한 의문 제기. 주제 6: 출연자 전망 - 출연자 없이 진행자 단독 방송. 명시적 방향성 예측(상승/하락) 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey soldiers Jamie Diamond CEO of JP Morgan Chase has some warnings that he's issuing about a coming recession now he's doing it in a particular way but we're going to take a look at that examine what he had to say and get prepared for it uh for it being the recession right now before we take a look at that I want you to understand also that it looks like the groundwork is being laid for easy these interest rate hikes do not rejoice yet though because if this relaxation or loosening of monetary policy is done based on the numbers we have today which I think there's a lot of Tom Foolery there's a lot of smoking mirrors funny Fuzzy Math going on if we do that then we risk watching inflation Spike again in the short term so we've got to look at this holistically guys subscribe to the channel if you haven't already it's easy hit subscribe you will not regret it we're taking a journey to figure out how to thrive in this ever evolving global economy and so let's do just that now the fed's preferred inflation gauge cools clearing path for rate hikes to end let's examine that headline the fed's preferred inflation gauge now I bet you the preferred inflation gauge is a lot lower than the actual rate of inflation which is measured over at Shadow stats by John Williams and it's based on the way in which inflation used to be calculated early 80s and prior before it became something they reported on the news uh four times a month in order to help politicians get reelected okay so take a look at what the real inflation rate is based on the previous um calculation and we're looking at something that is higher than what we are currently being told uh about the preferred the fed's preferred uh inflation gauge so um that preferred gauge is showing that price pressures are easing uh now you tell me in the comments is that occurring where you are in the most uh vital aspects of the AR uh economy the ones that you interact with on a daily basis those being food and energy are you seeing moderation and let me know if you are or if you're not uh where are you from what part of the country or the world are you from so we can kind of gauge this as a team right the recent report from the Commerce Department said prices were unchanged from September to October down from a point 4% rise the previous month so they're saying that price pressures have basically stagnated okay maybe you let me know I personally haven't seen it but guys I'll be honest with you I don't I don't buy a lot so uh for these reasons I like to invest in or or spend money to buy assets compared with a year ago consumer Prices rose 3% in October below the 3.4% annual rate in September that was the lowest year-over-year inflation rate in more than 2 and a half years but remember if inflation goes up at a slower Pace it still goes up okay now check this out this is what I was alluding to earlier excluding volatile food and energy costs increases increases and so-called core prices also slowed so um if they that's what they like to do in several of these inflation measures is take out those two aspects of the economy that you interact with the most and they're saying it's volatile okay well so what it's an accurate reflection of what the American Consumer has to deal with on a daytoday basis okay uh we're not out there buying durable goods every day how often do you buy a stove okay um so they're trying to make the case here that inflation is being has been tamed okay now remember they said they wanted to get back to 2% and these numbers are not 2% okay but we'll see we'll see if they renig on that uh commitment it's the fed you know whatever they told you inflation wasn't going to be a problem after putting trillions of dollars on the street so you know that's how trustworthy they are now let's take a look at what Jamie Diamond the CEO of JP Morgan had to say about the possibility of recession and what Banks should be doing to prepare for it you would think as the head of a bank the largest bank by assets in America he might have something to say to the people and say hey look citizens of America here's what you need to do because I think a recession is on the way well Jamie Diamond's not going to do it Tyrone keys will JP Morgan Chief Jamie Diamond sounded the alarm on a possible recession warning wall Wall Street to prepare for the threat of Rising interest rates even as inflation slows see that in several news stories now where inflation is slowing don't pay attention to what you actually see at the supermarket at the gas pump at the clothing store don't pay attention to any of that don't pay attention to your gas and electric bill just read these words inflation is slowing okay so a lot of people going to go out there like drones inflation is slowing inflation is slowing while they're kicking out more money to buy um some baln and cheese all right so he's telling Wall Street how to prepare quote a lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary be prepared Diamond said at the New York Times deal book Summit in New York on Wednesday interest rates may go up and that might lead to a recession so he's saying if they keep raising interest rates it's going to lead to recession when in fact if they lower them probably lead to a recession as well because inflation is going to continue to rise right uh and we're at the end of the you know mystical magical slight ofand economy that the United States has enjoyed for so long that's why we're in a damned if you do damned if you don't count a situation Diamond's comments suggest that he doesn't forecast a rate cut following the next 2day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 11th and 12th we shall see Federal Reserve officials have unanimously decided to keep the Benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year High between 5.25 and 5.5% so in a nutshell diamond is saying be careful be cautious and what that means to him is keep your powder dry don't go out there and start to uh you know put a lot of resources out and now here's why he saying that he's not being fearful when he says that he's saying keep your powder dry so that when investment opportunities arise in a recession you will be ready to pounce he's not saying that to the general public let them eat cake okay he's saying that to his high power Partners in big Finance all right because that's certainly what they're going to do as's banks start to suffer more these Regional and Community Banks start to suffer more JP uh Jamie Diamond almost call him JP diamond is going to be looking at that landscape trying to figure out who to acquire you should be in that same mode of thinking about picking up assets when we have a recession Tyrone that's that's really pessimistic of you when we have a recession absolutely because recessions are a part of the normal economic cycle in fact we've done a lot of slight of hand here to prevent the acknowledgement that we've probably been in a few recessions in the last couple of years all right so take it from Jamie Diamond be ready to pounce on opportunities as assets become cheaper in an economic trough I.E recession guys I'll talk to you soon
Comments 0