저자: SoldiersofFinance진행자 · 외국인
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2022년 8월 영상으로, 제이미 다이먼과 데이비드 솔로몬의 경기 우려 발언을 인용하며 인플레이션 고점은 아직 오지 않았고 경기침체 가능성이 크다는 진행자의 견해를 전달한다. 인플레이션 전망: 솔로몬은 아직 인플레이션 고점에 도달하지 않았을 수 있다고 봤고, 진행자는 IRA의 석유 수입세 등으로 물가가 오히려 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 금리와 경기: 연준의 금리 인상으로 긴축이 이어지며 경기 둔화가 불가피하다고 본다. 7월 식품 물가는 10.9% 상승했다고 언급했다. 제조업 지표: 필라델피아 연은 제조업 지수는 음(-)으로 전환했고, 뉴욕 엠파이어스테이트 지수는 -31.3으로 급락했다. 중국·글로벌: 중국 수출 주문이 줄고 있으며 전 세계 제조 수요가 둔화되고 있다고 진단한다. 임금·영국: 미국 실질 임금이 하락 중이며, 영국 실질 임금은 기록적 하락을 보였다고 전한다. 에너지: 독일의 원전 가동 연장 등 에너지 정책 문제로 겨울철 북반구 에너지 비용이 오를 수 있다고 주장한다. 다이먼은 석유·가스 증산이 기후 대응에 역행하지 않는다고 말했다고 인용한다. 대응: 진행자는 가능한 한 많이 저축·투자하고, 에너지 가격을 장기 고정하며, 세무 관련 정보를 확인하라고 권한다. 종목별 언급이나 구체적 가격 목표는 없으며, 진행자는 경기침체 및 인플레이션 장기화 쪽에 무게를 두고 있다.
다듬은 글
hey soldiers two of america's biggest banks their ceos they are extremely worried about what's going on in our economy jamie dimon over at jp morgan and david solomon of goldman sachs they had some deep concerns and i want to talk to you today about what they're seeing because we need to understand how they're thinking in order to maintain our course on the road to financial independence this is a journey not a destination we cannot afford to get knocked off of this path stay on the road and stick to the road oops all right let's start off with david solomon over at goldman sachs he recently said that there's a good chance that we haven't quite reached the peak yet the peak of inflation i tend to agree with that think about it the inflation reduction act the misappropriately named inflation reduction act actually will end up raising inflation because it contains all kinds of wacky provisions like an import tax on oil so you're going to raise the price of oil diesel fuel is a derivative of of oil okay so what will happen is you'll see prices uh to power shipping containers or container ships rather the price to move that across oceans is going to potentially increase the price to put that on a train here in america and send it out to you know a terminal for a truck to pick it up that price is going to increase power that train and the tractor trailer also the price to fuel that vehicle to bring you the merchandise to your local target or walmart that's going to increase not to mention the fact that if you look at farm equipment most of which is powered by diesel fuel diesel engines so you've got a farmer that's going to need to pass on that increase in fuel and then he's going to put it on a truck that also needs to pass on that increase in fuel to you that's going to add up to higher prices so that is one of the reasons why i agree with david solomon about the fact that inflation is certainly going to increase it's not going to be reduced solomon goes on to say anytime you have high inflation and go through an economic tightening you wind up having some sort of economic slowdown now when he says economic tightening what he's referring to is jerome powell fed chair drone power raising interest rates that's a form of monetary tightening and so we've got the perfect storm because we have uh tightening rates or rising interest rates okay which is making money more expensive we are experiencing high inflation okay if you just look at food inflation from july that's up 10.9 percent okay food inflation now in that headline number they don't count food and they don't count energy although those are the two most frequent interactions you have with the economy on a daily basis even okay multiple times throughout the day all right and they don't count that in their headline number but it was up 10.9 so we've got high inflation rising interest rates and yes we are in a recession so the pressures on the consumer are they they're getting pretty heavy all right now jamie dimon over at jp morgan he is usually a little bit more colorful in his analysis and uh outlooks on the economy he says he sees something worse than a recession potentially says that there's a 20 to 30 percent chance that we'll get something worse than a recession now the only thing that i can think of that's actually worse than a recession is a depression now if we take a look at some of the manufacturing data we might be uh getting a little forecast we might have the uh binoculars out and see this particular cloud forming out on the horizon the federal reserve bank of philadelphia their july 2022 manufacturing business outlook survey slipped into negative territory uh a little bit about this thing the manufacturing activity in the region declined overall in july according to the firms according to firms responding to this month's fed manufacturing business outlook survey the surveys indicators for current general activity and new orders declined further into negative territory the shipments index uh were positive and rose slightly while the indexes for inventories and unfulfilled orders were negative now uh that is kind of you know concerning there to say the least now if we take a look at the empire state manufacturing survey this is done by the new york fed this gets even more interesting the diffusion index for general business conditions is at a negative 31.3 and that was a decrease of 42.4 from the previous months 11.1 so manufacturer sentiment in the empire state the new york area is uh pretty pessimistic right now the empire state manufacturing index rates the relative level of general business conditions in new york state a level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions below indicates worsening conditions and at negative 31.3 we're deep into the negative territory below that 0.0 the reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in new york state now let's uh jump on a airplane here and get over to china and we've got some similar news coming out of china with regard to their manufacturing outlook china factory orders shrink an anonymous sign for global outlook investors wanting to gauge the health of a global consumer sentiment should look no further than china's factory orders right now makers of goods ranging from christmas decorations to clothing and tents say orders from overseas customers are drying up with some predicting that the best they can aim for is flat demand versus last year according to more than a dozen export managers interviewed by bloomberg news so china is the world's manufacturer uh by and large so um what they're seeing is kind of a lagging indicator of our sentiment here in america demand is down here so downstream that causes chinese manufacturers to experience these reductions in production so the whole world is kind of you know the biggest economies are kind of seeing the same things here that would lend credence to what jamie dimon and david solomon have both said okay and here recently we looked at wages in the u.s we took a look at it in a previous video i think yesterday uh but here having a look at the uh chart from the federal reserve data wages in the united states of america are down okay uh and look like they're plummeting down we'll see hopefully this trend will reverse um i'm not sure if it will in the near term but if we look across the pond at our cousins from uh the united kingdom regular pay fell at the sharpest rate on record between april and june official figures show wages when taking into account rising prices dropped by three percent on the year the office for national statistics over in britain said household budgets are being hit by soaring energy bills as well as high food and fuel costs in recent months so the whole world is experiencing this the rise in prices has fueled uk inflation rates 9.4 percent with warnings the economy will fall into a recession they're probably already in a recession as well they're just lying about it like the united states government is so we're seeing the same kinds of things go on across the world and in large part this has to do with energy policy i find it very interesting that germany has decided not to take their last three nuclear power plants offline they've decided to keep them running because they are uh in a situation where they're heavily dependent on russian energy and that's just not working out too well now i know here over on the east coast last few days have been kind of cool considering the fact that we're in august so i would imagine that i'm no meteorologist but this could portend cold temperatures for the northern hemisphere going into our winter and if germany is not able to well they've already been telling people to go ahead and figure out how to get some firewood this is the largest economy in europe the most technologically advanced and they're telling people to go back to the 16th century chop firewood uh when they could have built energy infrastructure of their own but they want to outsource it and the united states is doing something similar so we can actually expect to see uh higher energy cost here in the winter in throughout the northern hemisphere throughout the western world because our politicians want to pursue this crazy green agenda at all cost they don't have the sense to say okay we can develop these technologies and wean ourselves off of fossil fuels eventually but no they just want to cut the cord like a light switch and you see how it's working out now if we go back to jamie dimon and refer back to him he's actually quoted as saying here recently why can't we get it through our thick skulls america boosting oil and gas production is not against climate change uh but the left is trying to pursue this policy at all cost and we have a right in this country that is pretty toothless uh jp morgan ceo jamie dimon spoke to wealthy clients on a call tuesday uh this was last week the call touched on a variety of topics including climate change and the odds of a recession we talked about the recession aspect of it uh jamie dimon says we should focus on client climate the problem with that is because of high oil and gas prices the world is turning back on their coal plants it is dirtier diamond said on the client called tuesday per the saturday report why can't we get it throughout these skulls that if you want to solve climate change it's not against climate for america to boost more oil and gas so um i bet you he's real popular at the cocktail parties this week after uh you know taking a sword to the sacred cow of climate change but um i've told you before there's no bigger environmentalist than me but i'm also a realist and i don't want to freeze to death in my home uh over the winter so i want to be actually able to heat my home using current technologies and then one day maybe we can move away from that something that is more efficient and renewable i'm not going to talk about clean because solar panels aren't necessarily clean where do they go when they die what about these wind turbines where do they go when they die okay uh those are considerations that we should have top of mind but i don't want to get too deep down that rabbit hole uh i do want to let you know that you should continue i had a conversation with an individual today and we were talking about doing what you can uh he asked me well how much i don't make a lot of money how much should i be putting away i say every dime that you can every dime that you possibly can you should be putting to work for yourself uh because these prices are going up now i got a fireplace i don't know about you buy an extra sweater do what you have to do don't expose yourself fully to these energy costs another thing you can do is try to lock in energy uh and energy price for the long term you can get a really good deal usually if you do that do your own due diligence talk with your local provider try to figure it out with some research that you can do on online uh but try to lock in an energy price that way you can free up money to actually have for your um asset acquisition you got to stay on that path guys all right so that is all i have for you for now but what i want you to do is i want you to go and i want you to check out this video tulsi gabbard she says they're coming for us and what she means by that is these new draconian tax laws that they're coming out with they hired 87 000 new irs agents or they're in the process of doing so uh and it's going to get kind of interesting so we want you to be aware what's going on watch that video understand what's coming down the pike with regard to taxation and how you can legally avoid the onerous taxation that will certainly be coming in the future of america guys i'll talk to you soon
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