저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 유니버설뮤직그룹(UMG)은 장기 보유할 만한 우량주이며 현재 주가는 저평가 상태라 매수 관점을 유지한다. 2022년 실적 및 포트폴리오 평가: 헤지 수익으로 상당한 이익을 실현해 현금을 확보했고, 연초 대비 약 13% 수준의 수익률이며 S&P500보다 약간 앞선다고 언급했다. 다만 보유 기업들의 실적과 경영 성과가 핵심이라고 강조했다. UMG 투자 논리: 대부분의 보유 기업이 좋은 실적을 냈고, UMG는 음악 스트리밍 성장으로 수십 년간 성장이 예상되는 필연적 기업이다. 금리 인상으로 멀티플이 하락했지만 연초보다 더 낮은 밸류에이션에서 매력적이며 PER 19배는 말이 안 되는 수준이라고 주장했다. 연간 이익 성장률은 20% 또는 높은 10%대 후반으로 본다. 상장 구조 및 환율: 네덜란드 상장으로 인해 미국 기업임에도 할인을 받는다고 보며, 미국 증시 상장 가능성을 언급했다. 이익의 상당 부분이 달러 기반이라 달러 강세가 향후 주가에 반영될 것으로 전망했다. Pershing Square Holdings(PSH) 관련: NAV 대비 할인율이 확대되어 주가 부진이 아쉽다고 밝혔고, 35% 할인 가격에 자사주 매입을 최대한 진행 중이라고 설명했다. 보유 자산의 공정가치 기준 NAV는 주당 70달러 이상으로 추정했으며 현재 주가는 32~33달러 수준이다. 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁 등 지정학 리스크, 넷플릭스 등 일부 단기 부진 종목, 인플레이션 장기화 가능성, PSH의 할인율 지속 가능성 등을 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 보유 기업들의 가치가 회복될 것이며, 연준의 인플레이션 억제가 장기 가치에 중요하다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
feel quite good about 2022 we've had some very significant profits from Hedges uh you know decent percentage of which we've realized so that gives us cash to deploy that's offset some weakness and I would say stock price uh performance uh We've definitely uh you know I think the last reported return uh was probably something the 13 range something along those lines year to date uh we're a bit ahead of the s p um but uh what we really focus on is the performance of the companies we own and in almost every case uh with one uh short-term glaring example which was Netflix which we can we can discuss uh we feel very very good about the businesses we own um you know Universal Music continues to you know perform extraordinarily well and we expect it to for for decades to come uh you know really every company we own has reported uh good results are actually quite strong results management you know taking the right initiatives we feel very good about the businesses and what's happened is you know the move-in rates has caused you know re-rating in multiples and and brought down kind of today's stock market value of these companies um but we like them on January 1 at the prices where they traded and we like them more today at lower valuations and we think you know sort of finally the Federal Reserve is getting aggressive about uh tempering inflation and I think that's important for the long-term value of these businesses so as long as we don't we're not in a world with runaway inflation forever um you know and even in that World We Own the kind of businesses for the most part that can protect themselves from inflation so we like the companies we own uh we like uh you know the prices that were where they trade and then Pershing Square Holdings itself The Entity the the discount to nav has widened over the course of the year so the you know the performance of the share price is disappointing to us because it includes further Whiting widening of the the gap between nav and and share price and uh we we did launch a pretty aggressive share repurchase program we're buying the maximum every day that we can uh in the open market and the benefit uh for the long-term investor obviously is canceling shares at a 35 discount to any of the is quite a creative use of capital particularly when any of these comprised of businesses you really like that are trading it themselves cheap prices so you're we're buying back stock today and the last time we sort of did the math we sort of estimated kind of our if she took the kind of fair value of everything we owned and they traded at fair value uh that's a number you know comfortably in excess of 70 dollars per share when we're buying back stock you know today at 32 or 33 a share and I think that will endure to our benefit over the long term um so it you know obviously very interesting challenging year for the world um we try to own businesses that can withstand the test of time and I think we've been successful in selecting them you know the uh it's sort of a U.S uh headquartered company with most of its you know about half its profits in America uh listed on your next Amsterdam and It suffers a little bit I would say from what Persians were holding suffers from uh where the The Logical market for that stock is probably NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange and that's something the company can address over time but it's uh the business is doing great earnings are up you know well in excess of what we expected we bought the you know made the deal to buy the stock in in August of uh of last year and uh just the multiples come down trading at you know something under 20 times earnings for a business that we think can grow earnings at you know 20 percent or certainly High Teens compounded for a long long time in a you know really undisruptible business uh you know Ukraine is going through you know a tragedy and uh you know but my guess is people are still listening to music in Ukraine you know it it can appease you know the mind at a at tragic times and it's you know it's a kind of universal language and uh you're going to see more and more growth in music streaming over time and I think it's pretty inevitable so we like inevitable companies and we think we have by far the best management team in the industry so there's nothing to complain about other than I would say in the short term perhaps the share price the other thing that is hurting the share price uh is the you know uh the translation of euro to dollars right this is uh a Euro uh list you know entity uh we we hedge our exposure to kind of Universal's uh operating income in terms of its Euro and other currency uh exposures we don't hedge if you will sort of the the translation risk of the of the of the of the stock price so I think you know the earnings are better than expected you know partially because um you know obviously the business is doing really really quite well but uh over time we expect the market to give benefit for the fact that uh you know a lot of the company's earnings are on US Dollars and the US dollar is appreciated you know the stock price doesn't yet reflect that and we think it will over time but again great company great management very very cheap stock shouldn't Trade It 19 times earnings it makes no sense
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