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welcome to episode 79 Rosario ten lessons this is an outline of episode 79 listen number one that small success takes a long time for the first 12 years with water associates had anemic growth he started in the two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan in 1975 when Ray Dalio was 26 it water got his first big institutional investor in 1987 in 1987 with water associate had a five million dollar fixed income investment through the World Bank in 2017 which water associate is the world's largest hedge fund with a hundred sixty billion dollar asset under management and 1,500 employees listen number two meditation is important it allows you to step back and look at reality objectively 1968 The Beatles went to India to learn how to meditate and and then I heard quite a bit about it and was in the media was interesting and then I tried I learned how to meditate it was definitely life-changing I would say that probably more than anything it had a bigger effect on my life than the way it works is it's it's basically open mindedness and what happens is normally you can't control your brain if you were to sit down and say I'm not going to think that's a number three to make money you must think differently this is because the consensus is built into the price in order to be successful in the markets you have to be an independent thinker because the consensus is built into the price so you have to have a view that's different from other people's and whenever you do there's a high probability that you're wrong so what we needed to do was have people who have independent thinking and we're willing to thrash that out and would also have the humility of dealing with that weak listen number four go both ways that is go long and go short so you can fly in good times and you can also fly in at times and the reason I'm saying not the way we do it is we don't take systematic biases I think for a lot of people they're systematically long everything you know and so we have a world in which there when the world gets bad it's bad for them in 2008 it was great for us I don't know we had nearly 10 percent return in 2008 so we have the opportunity to go either way we just may be wrong okay if we're wrong so so I'm so scared about being wrong that it has helped reduce my chances of being wrong because I'm so scared I won't think that's that I'm listen number five advice to individual investors don't compete against institutional investors so I'm trying to go backward and botcher do well ambling and what you think is appropriate so here's what I'm trying you guys are doing well I want to just convey to investors I think of the average investor most everybody don't compete against pros like ourselves or other people don't making tactical asset allocation bets or moving around in the markets because you're probably going to lose it's difficult for up look at how is your live data for three basis points we know you have to have it about a balanced portfolio listen to the secret use computer and data for decision making the I read a study recently that showed the Millennials most want more feedback it sounds like rich water would be millennial heaven it's continuous feedback we created an app a device in which let me step back before I do to explain on our background in machine decision-making so something like nineteen eighty four or five we started to put rules into the computer and we have decision-making systems which are essentially expert systems computerized decision-making systems and so I believe very much in an evidence based system and the power of the computer to help them decision-making a lot but you have to keep collecting the information so we have this device and it's on the iPad and as a meeting is going on people in a very simple way easy way can input their thinking about what's going on including by person so we have as you've seen it something like 60 different characteristics of people and their attributes there are things like whether persons created whether they're you know listen number seven the organization is some of his people and culture here ray Daniel is telling us the difference between general motor and Tesla what I want to hear the interview of about General Motors and you think about one country one company or another you think of Tesla and by contrast okay look there are two things that make a difference it's either people or culture okay and that's everything and so everybody's talking about this was done of that is done step back what were your people like how are they different what is your culture like and how is that different and that's all that matters and so if you look at it that way and you compare what the future of general motors are going to be in the future of Tesla is going to be or any such things that's what all that makes up the difference listen number eight there are two worlds in each person give us balance these new worlds to succeed one of the world is the cerebral world and the other is the emotional world the evil person who would say would you like to know about your mistakes and weaknesses but we also have an emotional reaction the amygdala the fight-or-flight part of our brain and so it takes a lot of adapting it's the reconciliation of their lower emotional MEMS with their cerebral MEMS that's in number nine how to build idea meritocracy what is radical truth practical transparency it is let everybody see everything this is the basis of which water success meaning tape everything and let everybody see everything gave everybody a true understanding so that they can make their own independent decisions assessments of things you can't have an idea meritocracy if you can't see things for yourself so I found that that work didn't support of each other because I have more of an owner mentality I find that people bringing up their mistakes and weaknesses is something that they can get over and it's the basis of producing better results and it's given fantastic relationships it's painful in the moment sometimes people are not used to focusing on those things but we do it in an idea meritocratic way so it's non hierarchical and it brings us close together and it's the reason for our success I listen number 10 everything looks like a machine he made a famous video how the economic machine works it's about 30 minutes and it's available on YouTube but I will give you the three pillars here first productivity growth second short-term debt cycle third long-term debt cycle I believe that everything works like a machine so when we talk about markets and we talk about economics you know how I think it's just a machine everything has cause-effect relationships and you can program all of that we're at machines human brains a machine and we operate that way and in today's age we have data we have a lot of data and so to be able to look at what people are like is a powerful thing when debt Rises faster than productivity eventually the economy will come to a halt then comes the next painful long and slow process of division which happens in the history again and again how the economic machine works in 30 minutes the economy works like a simple machine but many people don't understand it this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering after we're going to step back and look at these three big forces and how they interact to make up our experiences the short-term debt cycle creating the long term debt cycle this is the long-term debt peak debt burdens have simply become too big so the United States Europe and much of the rest of the world this happened in 2008 it happened for the same reason it happened in Japan in 1989 and in the United States back in 1929 now the economy begins deleveraging in a deleverage incurring incomes full credit disappears asset prices drop banks get squeezed the stock market crashes social tensions rise and wishing everyone meditation peace and prosperity
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