원문 보기
welcome to cryptocorner the channel That explores the exciting world of cryptocurrency and blockchain Technology in this video we will delve into the insights and perspective of Ray dalio one of the world's most successful investors as he shares his thoughts on leadership and currency but before we go on make sure to hit the like And subscribe button to stay updated for more of our content but besides that let's get into it any speech Ray dalio highlights the Timeless nature of a cause and effect relationships explaining that while there is evolution over time there are also repeating Cycles he gives the example of the Federal Reserve which is often put in the position of having to choose between allowing defaults or printing money this Choice has repeated throughout history and by examining the reactions and choices made in these situations we can gain insight into the cause and effect relationships that remain constant over time daddy notes that throughout history there has always been a fight for patrol because there is no World Court to appeal to after World War II the United States merged as the dominant power with 80 percent of the world's money half of the world's GDP and a monopoly on military power as a result the U.S Set the World Order and institutions such as the United Nations IMF and World Bank were established in New York and Washington DC however dalio also acknowledges that things evolve and change over time and there are three big changes happening now that haven't occurred in our lifetime the first is the amount of debt and money creation which affects the value of money and has a daily impact Central Bankers are faced with a choice of paying back debt with hard money or printed devalued money and in most cases they choose the latter which eventually leads to inflation this is the situation we find ourselves in currently the second big change is great internal conflict that arises when there is a large wealth and values Gap coupled with a financial problem this is when we see the rise of populism of the left and the right those who feel disenfranchised went Fighters not compromisers leading to hardened positions and no compromise Ray Dali warns that in some upcoming elections we could potentially see a situation where neither side would accept losing and they might not even follow the rulings of the Supreme Court the third big change is the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power such as China challenging the United States there are five kinds of wars that typically start in sequence a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence War a capital and economic Warfare and finally a military war zalio cautions against looking at the economy in the rear view mirror and only seeing low levels of inflation without understanding monetary inflation there are two types of inflation demand-driven inflation and monetary inflation the latter occurs when there is an increase in money and credit Productions that exceeds the production of goods and services leading to a spiral of rising prices the selling of bonds exacerbates the imbalance and either interest rates have to go up or the central banks has to print more money which they always do this type of inflation is not paid enough attention to but it can lead to situations like the inflationary depressions seen in the Wilmer Republic in the early 1920s meanwhile he also discussed the challenges of the monetary situation including the relationship between debt and inflation according to dalio when a lot of debt exists paying it back becomes a challenge for the central bank which must decide whether to pay it back at hard or depreciated money this can lead to speculation which is characterized by low economic growth and high inflation Delhi pointed out to the late 1960s and early 1970s as an example of this phenomenon at that time the U.S spent a lot of money on both the Vietnam War and social programs which resulted in too many checks being written relative to the amount of gold in the bank this led to the devaluation of the dollar and a subsequent increase in inflation to combat inflation the Federal Reserve can reduce the amount of money and credit available by selling debt assets and raising interest rates however this can come at a cost including reducing buying power and increasing economic growth dalio also explained inflation in a simple way it is a function of the amount of money and credit produced relative to the amount of goods and services sold currently there is a large amount of money and credit being produced but there are bottlenecks and production disruptions due to the factors such as covid-19 and geopolitical issues dalio also discussed the United States position in the global economy noting that it is no longer the dominant military power or economic power China has become a larger trading partner with other countries and the U.S is in relative decline this raises the question of what will be the new Global Currency and whether it will be a government currency cryptocurrency gold or something else entirely finally dalu touched on the importance of currency as a medium of exchange and a store of wealth bonds that store currency must have a real return but none of the major currencies currently have that this is all this has resulted in movements out of major currencies and into other assets and the bond market has responded accordingly production is also now being driven by ideological and political considerations with self-sufficiency becoming a more important factor for countries and multinational corporations additionally he emphasizes the need for a strong middle ground in politics technologies that the current two-party political system in the United States can lead to extremism on both sides with approximately 30 percent of the population being extreme right and 15 being extreme left however the majority of Americans are in the middle and he believes a third party with a platform for the middle could help draw people away from the extremes dally believes that investing in education and infrastructure is crucial for broad-based prosperity but the lack of a middle party prevents this from happening Dali warns of the failure to follow the rule of law and the Constitution could lead to a civil war like situation he gives examples such as a seat and government being occupied by someone who wasn't elected or the Supreme Court's ruling not being followed by the states when the rule of law is disrecorded it becomes a maintenance type of situation and it could lead to violence he estimates the possibility of such An Occurrence at around 40 percent he also noted that people tend to pick a side and speak to us through media Outlets he coincidence the objectivity of the media and their ability to report without bias since 1980 per capita income for the bottom 60 of the population has not risen and he believes this is because there is an element in which the reinvestment of gains does not go down to create the basics the basics according to him are good parenting good public education system and equal opportunity he highlights the importance of providing these Basics to people to create a prosperous Society however the growing population that lacks these Basics leads to disenfranchisement and other issues he believes this is why Donald Trump was elected as president the solution to this problem he believes is to invest in education and infrastructure and create a platform for the middle that draws people away from extremism he also discusses the international lending system and how it operates according to Value countries like the United States are the largest lenders and could have lent in their own currency but choose not to because they saw it as a threat the goal of such countries is not to disrupt the world order but rather to be as great rich and Powerful as possible Dali explains that historically international relations have been similar to Confucianism where countries are an attribute system and each country knows its place in the hierarchy other countries would almost be like a vassal of states acknowledging the power of other countries and operating in harmonious ways however Dalia emphasizes that the Chinese leadership is paranoid about maintaining the power of the Communist Party they believe in a top-down autocratic system while Americans believe in a more bottom-up approach to democracy this difference in ideologies and approaches to governance has led to conflicts such as the punishment of an NBA team and the league as a whole with the Chinese government when players spoke out on Hong Kong Dali notes that the Chinese will not give up their approach any more than Americans would give up the Constitution or their freedom of speech on the other hand we must also understand that China's approach to governments is like a religion to them just as different religions have deeply held beliefs all over the world he also notes that every individual who buys products from or interacts with China is faced with Cosmic questions about how to approach the issue of Human Rights Dalia relies on the guidance of both governments and has studied Chinese history to understand their approach to governance he notes that the confusion system was the first meritocracy that created broad-based education and exams to select the most capable individuals for jobs thus reducing corruption while there have been good and bad dynasties in China's history the common ingredients of success have remained the same Ray dalio added that the qualities of a great leader throughout history and how they adapt to changing circumstances he believes that a great leader understands circumstances and has a vision to carry that forward while also being able to get the population behind him he thinks that the Strong Middle is crucial for the population to work together and make progress that was Ray dalu's take of the qualities of great leadership and the importance of understanding history in making investment decisions as always we hope you found this video informative and thought-provoking don't forget to hit the Subscribe button and turn on the notification Bell for more exciting content on our cryptocurrency and blockchain Technology this is cryptocorner and we'll see you in our next video
Comments 0