Jeremy Siegel: If oil stays near $80 there's no way the Fed raises rates in September

요약 보기

S&P500이 7,800을 돌파하며 실적 모멘텀이 강하다고 진단. 최근 유동성 이벤트는 '정화(cleansing)' 효과로 평가. CPI·PPI 양호, 유가 80달러 안팎이면 9월 금리인상 가능성은 낮다고 봄. AI가 비용절감과 마진 개선을 이끌어 실적 행진이 이어질 것으로 전망. 성장주에서 가치주로의 로테이션이 진행 중이며, AI 수혜가 기대되는 PER 15배 수준 저평가 종목 선호.

다듬은 글

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01. We are back. The S&P 500 index crossed the 7,800 mark for the first time today as earnings continue to impress. I know they will impress our next guest. This is Jeremy Siegel, . Professor, welcome back. I described everything correctly, did n't I? I mean, you continue to be impressed by the dynamics of profits.

02. Yes. Yes. I am impressed by the earnings momentum and the consistent good news. You know, last Friday when we were chatting, we were talking about situational awareness. What would you call it? Not a crash, but a liquidity event. It didn't really shake up the market. This, I would say, was cleansing.

03. And I think that gave people confidence. There is a certain level of leverage there, but it is not excessive. Plus, this week's CPI and PPI reports are actually pretty good. Goldman Sachs, which is best at studying all the details of the impact on the PCE deflator, which will be released later this month, lowered its forecast for PCE, based on the CPI and PPI, saying it will rise just 0.2%.

04. And half of that, one- tenth of a percent, is in that crazy portfolio management section of the price index. This is largely due to the growth of the stock market, which is certainly not a bad result. So what do we have this week from the real data: of course, we get retail sales data tomorrow. But on prices, my feeling is that if oil stays around $80, I do n't see any chance of the Fed raising rates in September, and the earnings parade continues.

05. Yes, it looks like we can rule out a rate hike in September. At the very beginning of the program, I asked a question, Professor, and I would like to hear your answer: aren't investors overly optimistic for various reasons? They have reason to be optimistic, but some talk about an " income bubble," perhaps it's peaking, and other reasons.

06. Or are we not optimistic enough because we have more resilience in the earnings story than we think, along with other factors like lower inflation, further Fed rate cuts rather than increases, and productivity, which as you know, lagged in the first two quarters of this year but looks like it will really pick up in the third and fourth quarters .

07. I mean, AI is really starting to take off , and it's not only driving revenue through hyperscalers and infrastructure spending, but it's also, as we've discussed many times, allowing companies to cut their own costs to increase margins, which have been pretty stagnant for non-tech companies. If you look at it historically, of course, overall, and as you mentioned at the beginning of the program, the margin on the S&P index is at record high levels.

08. But if you exclude the technology and communications sectors, it has been relatively stable, but it could improve significantly if companies can use AI for what it was designed to do —reduce costs. So I think this is where this story can continue, despite everything that's happening with AI. I'm not going to say if it's a bit overvalued or what the competition is, but boy, it seems like any downturn is always offset by results and profits.

09. I don't think we're overly optimistic right now. Wow. What do you like most about the market right now? What do you find most attractive, if you were to evaluate the market by price/ earnings ratio, by sector , or by something that you think is undervalued, that we don't focus enough on because the technology sector , deservedly, sucks all the oxygen out of the room?

10. And maybe that's your choice; You tell me. Well, I know that there has been a rotation from growth stocks to value stocks over the last 6 months. And I think the day we had that liquidity event, some people called it " Leopold's low" after Leopold dumped... a significant portion of his position. It was an extreme shock.

11. Now we have actually recovered from that. But if you look at the overall trend, this rotation is still ongoing. This doesn't mean you know that the " Magnet Seven", hyperscalers and the technology sector will necessarily give up positions. But as I said, when I look at potential earnings not yet factored in in the future, I like stocks with a P/E ratio of 15 that could benefit from AI .

12. There are many companies, Anthropic is one of them, that list almost every industry and potential benefit of AI, even though it has n't even started being used yet. And, you know, I won't name specific names, but I think that this is what could continue this rotation in the future. By the way, both options can go up, but we are seeing some of the undervalued stocks rise relative to the winners of the last two to three years.