저자: MikeDoustdar · 외국인
요약 보기
노보노디스크 CEO는 경구용 위고비(알약) 출시가 역대 최고 수준 성과라며 처방 500만 건 이상, 복용자 150만 명을 언급. 가격 인하로 매출은 연간 -3% 개선 전망(당초 -9%). 경쟁사 릴리 대비 체중감량 효과(17% vs 12%)와 고용량 Wegovy HD를 강조. 주가는 실적 발표 후 급락했다가 대부분 회복됐다고 설명. 장기 전망에 대해 낙관적 태도 유지.
다듬은 글
So what happened to shares of Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical company known as the developer of Ozempic and Wegovy? Last week, they reported quarterly results that beat expectations, but shares fell nearly 6 % on the day the numbers were released . They have since recouped most of their losses, but it was a stunning response.
Note, Novo Nordisk helped create the entire GLP-1 drug category, and their obesity and diabetes treatment business is now generating huge profits. In January, they released a tablet version of Wegovy. It has already been prescribed over 5 million times, mostly to people who have never tried injections.
Ultimately, this is a transformation story that involves about 15% staff cuts, but it still doesn't have much traction on Wall Street. Earlier today, I had the opportunity to chat with Mike Dujarric. He is the president and CEO of Novo Nordisk. Look. I know everyone knows you because you are the person who introduced GLP-1 to the world .
I'm very pleased that you're here. We haven't seen each other since the JP Morgan conference. I thought you would just tell us what's happened since then, because I know there's been a bit of a reboot at your company. Thank you very much. Yes, a lot has happened. More and more people are getting used to either taking pills or taking injections, and more importantly, we are trying to better understand the benefits of GLP -1.
Compared to 12 months ago when I took this position, we have 70% more people in the US using our products, largely due to the advent of tablets. Yes. So, this surprised most investors . I'll also tell you that it surprised us too—the huge number of people who switched to pills. Now we have 1.5 million people in the world taking pills in a very short period of time.
The number of prescriptions written here in the United States has exceeded 5 million. Jim, that makes this launch the best product launch in the history of pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceuticals. Not only Novo. One of my colleagues told me that there might be one vaccine—you can guess which one—that has shown better results.
But yeah, it was a phenomenal launch. Okay, Mike, explain to me why on your last conference call you lowered your forecast, even though I thought you were going to raise it. You talked about indicators from a " plateau" level to a 6 % drop. I was thinking about the pills and I was like, " Wow, this is going to be a huge number, but it's not reflected in the earnings per share." Well, we actually improved our forecasts and significantly exceeded analysts' expectations.
You may remember that we started the year with a forecast that our average sales would be minus 9% . In the first quarter, we improved this average to minus eight, and now, in the second quarter, we have improved it again, bringing it to minus 3%. I think people are asking, "Why is the score negative at all when you have these pills that are taking over the world?" Excellent question.
The majority of our sales are in injection molds. And last year, due to MFN pressure and pricing pressure, we significantly reduced prices for Ozempic and Wegovy. Of course. We did this because we want people to have access to these medicines. We did this because we think in categories that go beyond one block.
I believe that even though I have to report quarterly, we have to build this company for decades to come. Frankly, it's impossible to imagine people buying a $1,000 pack of Ozempic or Wegovy. So we had to swallow this bitter pill. We had to significantly lower the price, and you know from math: if you lower the price by half, you need to double the volume to break even, but you can lower the price on the first day.
You can't double the volume on the first day. Allow me to object . Eli Lilly had amazing results. They are your competitors. Um, they're not that strong in tablets yet, and yet they generate better performance than Novo. Because Eli Lilly is gaining market share, um, and they are more diversified than Novo Nordisk.
So, if you look at Eli Lilly, I think about 60% of their business is GLP-1, we have about 90. And in addition, it's no secret that Lilly has achieved quite a lot of success in increasing sales and market share, even more than Novo. What about, do I think—I know that you sued Eli Lilly? Do you think they provided inaccurate information?
I am a big fan of competition. I believe that competition should be fierce, but I also believe that it should be fair. Good. I believe that patients, along with their doctors, deserve to know the whole truth before choosing which product to take. We believe that the advertising they do, while true, does not reflect the full picture.
It is based on older generations of these products using older dosages. We have a drug called Wegovy HD, Wegovy in a high dose, with efficacy at the level of our competitor. We would like patients to be aware of this when making their choices. And that's why we do what we do. to state the truth. You seem to be saying this, but the comparison may not be entirely correct.
They did the trial correctly, directly comparing it to the 2.4 mg dose of Wegovy. And we believe that people should clearly know that there is a more advanced version of Wegovy on the market with a different profile. And then they can make their choice and decide which product is best. Well, let's talk about this launch, because it's pretty exciting.
I know Lilly has pills too. They started to see some growth in the number of prescriptions. They have certain differences. You really do have limitations. I don't think these restrictions are that significant, but of course, having no restrictions, as we hear from Lilly, is better than your profile, but it does n't seem to matter.
Your product is just flying at breakneck speed. Why do you think this happens, through "word of mouth"? And are there any side effects that are more serious than those from injections? Yes. So, I think the American market and consumers have been incredibly honest about what their preferences are . Right.
When you think about what happened with Novo Nordisk's injectable business, it happened largely because many patients believed that our competitor had a more effective weight loss profile based on the older version that I just told you about. And so we started to lose ground. Almost the same thing happened with the pills, Jim.
We released a pill that reduces your weight by 17%. The Lilly pill reduces your weight by 12%—based not on direct comparative studies, but on our own trials. The consumer is very honest about this. They want to lose 17%, not 12%. But initially we thought there might be some demand for our competitor's product because consumers might think that because they don't have to wait before eating before taking this pill, they would find our competitor's product easier to use.
to believe in the world The world perceives it differently, frankly , because the doctor explains to his patients: “Get up in the morning, brush your teeth, take a pill, Yes. " Brush your teeth, take a shower, and then have breakfast." It's pretty easy. On the other hand, the same doctor should explain to a patient who is trying to take Lilly : “Are you taking birth control pills?
If so, that would be problematic." You can obviously come back with a more effective remedy , but right now you have great prospects, and that's what intrigues me about the stock, because I think you can show better results than you expect. But I say this as someone who follows your company closely, who has to think a little bit ahead to say that these stocks are too cheap.
I mean, after today, I just don't see any...well, there's always downside risk. But I wanted to ask you, and it's really important. You have a huge amount of research . This is a real labyrinth of research. You didn't win that heart thing, but there were also kidney problems there. Are you going to...
are you sure that there will be things in the future , including a pill that gets rid of fat but not muscle? Because this is the Holy Grail. We do not change our strategy based on the results of one study. OK. We work in business , together with our colleagues, where failures happen. Trial and error.
I hope the number of successful trials and successful drug implementations outweighs the number of failures. That's why we've been around for 100 years. Most drugs fail. Most medications. I think the reason we've been around for 100 years, as has our company, is because we've had more successes than failures.
Yes. We work quarter by quarter, but we are building this company for decades to come. And yes, I feel incredibly confident. Going back to your point about stock prices: the stock market is always right, but with a slight time lag. Well , that's fair. I think we need to continue to show results like the last two quarters for a while, and then this moment will turn into a trend, and hopefully the stock market will also pull up.
I think the pill works extremely well, and that's a pretty important conclusion. If something becomes the greatest launch of all time, other than a vaccine, as we know, that's pretty exciting for our viewers, especially because the stocks, I can tell you—no, and I— yes, are low. Mike Hughes, president and CEO of Novo Nordisk, comes in good times and bad .
I like it and I think this pill is worth keeping an eye on because it could change, I believe it could change the direction of the company. Thank you. Thank you very much, Jim. Thank you. Next: Zoom shares rise, Cramer examines the data to see what's behind the company's latest rise. .
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