저자: 미상 · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 연초 대비 약 65% 급락한 상황에서 머스크의 지분 매도(트위터 인수자금 조달), 경기침체 우려, 금리 인상 영향을 짚는다. 성장 시나리오(연 20~30% 성장)에서는 큰 상승 여력, 경기침체 시나리오(현금흐름 5% 수익률 기준)에서는 약 40% 추가 하락 가능성을 제시한다. 발언자는 경기침체 여부를 확인할 때까지 실행 결과를 지켜보며 매수를 고려 중이라고 밝힌다. 다만 자산 포트폴리오는 경기와 무관한 저평가·자사주 매입 기업 위주로 구성한다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock getting absolutely crushed down around 65 percent year-to-date investors are wondering where do you see that bottom where you have fundamental support that prevents the stock from going a lot lower in this video we're going to talk about the valuation the Dynamics of Tesla stock where it could go where you could see that potential bottom you know think about a range of of possibilities if you enjoy educational investment videos please make a point of hitting that subscribe button you are watching unrivaled investing so let's understand why is Tesla getting absolutely clobbered well a good part of it is you have this overhang with Elon Musk continuing to sell billions and billions of dollars of stock NOW most recently selling around 3.6 billion dollars that is a both a psychological as well as a supply and demand aspect where you're pushing down shares because you have a seller but it's also because he's saying hey I have to sell this stock effectively to finance his Twitter acquisition because he paid 40 50 billion dollars for Twitter and he used a lot of debt to it and he doesn't want to effectively get some sort of Margin Call he doesn't want to have you know some sort of bankruptcy with Twitter so hey he needs to keep selling his his one liquid asset Tesla and he's you you could see all these sort of data points about him needing to raise Capital oh SpaceX is you know going to do a capital raise so uh you know Twitter's also open to new investors so he it's very clear there's all these data points of trying to bring in liquidity to handle this most recent purchase because if this were Tesla alone he'd probably be fine and so this is causing Tesla investors to get angst saying hey he's distracted from running Tesla as best as he could be especially if we're potentially facing a recession in the quarters ahead he's focusing on not having some sort of bankruptcy blow up with Twitter and it's made even worse because Twitter is seeing its own problems you know in one article talk about losing 50 of its top 100 advertisers I mean if you have an advertising business losing half your business and by the way you borrowed a lot of money to buy this business this is creating real problems and that creates this overhang of like hey how much more additional stock will Elon Musk have to sell and creating that risk of like hey could he push the stock lower well recently on a a Twitter spaces he called out how I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year after you know and so this was once again during a live Twitter spaces this is a little bit surprising because it seems like just within the past year he was saying something very similar saying hey he wasn't going to be doing any more Tesla sales I think what ended up happening was Twitter's results just proved to be absolutely terrible and he said hey I'm going to need this cash flow in order to keep things Aloft and even saying hey I'm not going to sell in the next year or two I think wall Street's discounting that investors are discounting that because you would think hey that could cause Tesla stock to rebound and you're still seeing it near its lows okay so the question from here is where does Tesla stock go from here well part of the concern is you know you see Tesla stock is declining not because of Elon Musk selling or Twitter involvement but due to the fact that the risk-free rate so talking about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has spiked over the past year and the economy is headed towards a recession this is what stocks especially Auto original equipment manufacturers so the auto manufacturers do during this phase of the cycle to which Elon Musk responded yeah Bullseye that's what's going on this isn't actually due to his sales this is due to the fact that the economy is rapidly going into recession because the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in which case growing their business will be much much tougher okay so the question is where does Tesla stock actually go from here well first if you're looking to take charge of your investment Journey consider unrivaledinvesting.com for compelling investment ideas real-time portfolio updates and our exclusive Discord server available for annual subscribers I also recently launched two new investment courses for enterprising investors looking to understand financial statements as well as trying to think about how do I value a stock that's a part where a lot of investors have gotten burned this past year saying overpaying for things in full disclosure this is not Financial advice so let's think about Tesla stock the reality is I look at those really two paths ahead for Tesla and one is you you sort of have a smooth continued growth path where you know the CEO says hey I can easily see us growing fifty percent in the you know per year into the years ahead in which case Tesla does extremely well the other path is you have a recession maybe it's a multi-year recession because of the challenges were facing and I think if you look at both those paths you know they lead to very different outcomes over the next few years longer term it's really the growth and the value proposition of the business that drives where where it goes but in the next let's say two three four five years recession could play a big role so it's important to understand you really have two paths ahead of you if you have the growth path and if they continue to deliver not even as good as what Elon Musk targets you know the 50 growth if I you know pencil out 20 to 30 annualized growth over the next five years and I assume very slight margin expansion from what they've been able to achieve partly because you know they have incredible manufacturing facilities or they just sort of keep their margins where they recently were around 20 percent you know then you're looking at a business currently trading around 30 times earnings which is really incredible for business growing closer to 50 60 percent so if the growth story holds up you say hey I'm buying something around 30 times earnings because it's doing around 13 billion you know in in earnings around 400 billion dollar market cap these are Ballpark figures and you assume 20 to 30 annualized growth from here assuming at 20 times multiple so some valuation compression over the next five years trying to say hey let's be further conservative from where the market is today you could pencil out effectively up to 200 fifty percent upside if they execute at thirty percent growth and they have a twenty five twenty five times multiple if they just sort of stay where they are at their current margins and they effectively a little bit more than double their business 20 annualized growth and they have a 15 times multiple so the valuation Falls in half you're looking at the stock price effectively go nowhere over the next five years so this is I'd argue starting to look like an asymmetric setup where if you have continued execution continued solid growth then you could have hundreds of percent upside but once again this is a hypothetical valuation framework stock price can go way higher way lower it depends on the execution of the business so how do they perform so then the next question is well what happens if there's a recession and you're starting to see some concerning data points along these lines for example Tesla Tesla stock sold off around eight nine percent recently when the news came out that they were you know offering some 7 500 discounts on their popular models model 3 and model y making hay is this possible because they're facing softening demand which is also the point that Elon Musk even called Bullseye in that prior Twitter post so the question is okay so what what's this mean for shareholders because on the one hand if you have the growth path then you're talking about several hundred percent upside if you have a recession how low does it go what's important to understand there's different mindsets there's different valuation Frameworks that investors use depending on which path and where you are from a psychological perspective in a bull market people put a lot of focus on growth so if you say hey I'm going to keep assuming let's say 20 30 growth range in some sort of future multiple that's how you get that 200 plus upside or maybe just flat over the next five years but if you say start putting on a tougher mindset a mindset saying hey cash is a real opportunity cost you know right now you can get over 3.8 percent you know cash at interactive brokers there's a link below you know folks say hey there's a real opportunity cost and also there's a real risk that we're in a recession how many people will want to buy cars what what happens to demand in that picture will Elon Musk even even be able to grow Tesla's business what happens if sales actually contract because you're facing a tough recession now you know Elon Musk and Tesla they have been able to take market share over time so even if there is a recession there's a good chance that they're able to take market share and continue growing but it'll be extremely tough and so in this second mindset this recessionary mindset folks are saying hey what's the free cash flow yield what's the free cash flow that can be returned to shareholders if they needed to if they wanted to currently they're doing around 13 billion dollars in earnings ballpark figure for free cash flow ballpark if you say investors want a minimum of a five percent yield based on that once again that recessionary sort of framework people are putting more conservative hats on this is very different than the growth hat that I just called out you know if you have this growth situation the recessionary had of people being concerned let's see how the results play out you know in that situation if you want let's say a five percent yield on 13 billion dollar valuation well that that means effectively a 260 billion dollar you know valuation on Tesla you know 13 billion divided by five percent around 260 billion and that you know would suggest another 40 downside for Tesla stock before you start getting that sort of fundamental support just wearing that sort of conservative recessionary hat and so it's important to understand that's why you can get just tremendous volatility with the stock market is that one moment you know one quarter you can have hey what's the growth rate what's the earnings power going to be in the future in another situation you're putting on the like what's my cash flow now and what can you return to me as a shareholder or what can you use to buy back stock right now to sort of support the share price personally I look at this and I'm excited about you know the things Elon Musk is trying to roll out he's changing the world I'd love to see some real robots I'd love to see Westworld I'd love to see him roll that out like you know maybe not the Killer Robots but having maybe maybe having some cool robots to help around the house would be awesome so you know I'd love to see Robo taxis you know as everyone you know if you have parents they're getting older Lord knows you want them on the streets so want more Robo taxis want you know I I like the future that he's trying to spell out with Tesla I I'm excited by it and so the question is you know where and and I see I'm starting to see in the growth hat that it's starting to have a lot of potential so for me personally I'm looking at this and I'm thinking I want to see how they execute during the next quarter or two because I do think the odds of a recession have gone up dramatically and if they are able to hold up in terms of their results and continue to execute despite the fact that you have these recessionary pressures then I'd be more inclined to buy now I think there is this possibility you get a further sell-off because of the recessionary pressures and I called out that sort of folks that want to focus on free cash flow and what that valuation would suggest so I'm looking at this and I'm thinking I'm inclined to consider start buying but I I personally want to own things and what my portfolio is geared around is things that will work out regardless of whether or not we are in a recession you know for example if you own things that trade let's say below Book value or has you know traded below some sort of liquidation value or has that sort of free cash flow support or you know the CEO is actively buying back stock you know with the you know the companies of actively buying back stocks supporting the stock gobbling up you know share five ten percent of the stock each year that is a situation where I go hey even if there's a recession because this business is so stable maybe they're selling a medical product you know and their free cash flow is very stable I go hey even if the stock fell off 50 I'd be excited by that because it would mean more stock that management could buy back so I I look at this Dynamic it's quite different than what I'm seeing with Tesla which is very sensitive to the economy arguably and that's that's something Elon Musk even called out saying look in a recession these types of stocks do sell off I'm just curious how they perform let's say during the next two quarters as we start to see more economic pressure will they continue to be able to grow will they be able to hold up their sort of record industry margins I want to see that I I want to I'm the type of investor that says you know like let's let's verify that this thesis is still holding up before you know committing capital and otherwise I want to own things that I think can do well regardless of whether or not you're looking at a growth situation or recession situation and those are the types of companies I personally call them out to my subscribers at unrivalinvesting.com if you enjoyed this video talking about Tesla please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for watching unrivaled investing
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