저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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짐 크레이머는 애널리스트의 다운그레이드가 이미 급락한 뒤 나오는 경우가 많아 투자자를 겁먹게 한다고 주장한다. 아마존·애플 하락 시 저가 매수 기회로 보라고 권하고, 마이크로소프트는 급락 후 다운그레이드였으나 주가가 오히려 상승했다고 지적한다. 허니웰은 분사 등 가치 개선 소식에도 주가가 거의 움직이지 않아 무시당하고 있다고 평가하며, 거시 요인보다 기업 펀더멘털에 집중하라고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
am Money begins now. Hi, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Bad Money. Welcome to Cray Am help you earn make fun of you. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Send me a tweet to Jim Kramer. Complacency. Complacency is a two-way street. We always hear how bulls are complacent and ignore downside risk . But we almost never hear of bass players being complacent and missing out on fantastic opportunities, which I find absurd.
Nobody is as accommodating as bass players, right? We see this enigma unfold very often, even today , when the Dow advanced 126 points, the S&P gained 0.97% and the NASDAQ fell 1.45%. Remember, last night I spent a lot of time talking about how yesterday we received a series of discounts that I didn't like.
So, after the stocks that already reacted to the negative news, to me, they seem like free notes that would end up costing you money if you listen to them. Because? Because in the last decade, the hardest thing to do is to hold on to good deeds. But analysts and commentators love to point to long-term winners.
His Jeremiah has scared so many people and prevented them from making amazing profits that I find it totally wrong. Furthermore, even if you wanted to take action on these discounts, you should wait for at least a rebound before making any sales. Sell, sell. And if it's a valuation-based downgrade , you need to be ready to buy back the shares at a lower level , which is incredibly difficult to do even for the best traders.
But the complacency of the bears allows them to continue attacking these stocks even when they are already falling. Often, with the false winks of macroeconomics, the overall picture of the economy is actually designed to scare people . Consider what happened yesterday. I was even reluctant to comment on the Apple and Amazon sales, but I felt I had to because this isn't the first time I've had to tie myself to the dough and hold on tight when I hear the tone of these sales.
Truly terrifying. If you recall, the analyst who discredited Apple yesterday said that there would be no green light to buy a new iPhone until 2026 or 2027 due to hardware failures. Amazon's price cut was prompted by concerns about obstacles to consumer spending. This comes just before Amazon's big Prime Deal Days event, where the bargains are possibly mind-blowing.
Do you see Apple's offers? They should see them. They are truly incredible. Now, I told the members of the CBC Investing Club that they had to either stay put or buy—that's right, buy the discounts— because both Amazon and Apple were down a lot from their recent highs before the discounts. I really like buying stocks after a 5-8% pullback because, well, on the one hand, that's where you get rebounds, and on the other hand, you're not at the top.
Let's consider the trajectory here. Amazon reported a quarter that was widely criticized almost three months ago. The stock was trading at 184 when the quarter was reported. It then plummeted to 161, but then fell again to 195 just over two weeks ago, right above the so-called bad quarter as if it had never happened.
Then it drops almost nine points in a row, which is where the reduction occurs. The long-standing problem with Amazon is that you can't just jump in and out. A setback like yesterday's seemed like a gift from heaven. Yesterday's price drop gave you a second great buying opportunity since that quarter.
Indeed, today there are no improvements or discounts, so what happens? Well, the stocks bounce back and you're free to sell at a better price if that's what you really want. The same applies to Apple. Here's a stock that was at 226 at the end of last week. There was a lot of negativity about how the iPhone 16 was already a failure.
Yesterday's price cut sent the stock plummeting to 221. Today , without any analyst prediction, it's jumped $4 back to 225. If you want to sell your Apple stock, now's the time. Not yesterday. Unfortunately, if you were trying to get out and back in at a lower level, it's already too late. However, I'm not saying that Apple's stock can't go down again.
Quite the opposite. Yes, they can. What I'm saying is that this whole thing of going in and out and in and out is complicated, it's full of tax considerations, frictions, and it's not something you should be doing at home. Even so, these were significant discounts . They made the stock prices fall a lot .
They worked, as they say on Wall Street. They made people take action. Wow, I'm fed up with people taking measurements and then them being publicized. Terry, we have a downgrade from Microsoft saying that Wall Street is overestimating AI revenue. Oh, really? A month ago, that would have been a timely decision.
The problem is that Microsoft's stock had just fallen from 441 to 410 almost in a straight line. So the analyst arrives after a gigantic fall. So, how did the stock fare with the downgrade? What happened? How much did it drop? Did it have the same impact as yesterday's Amazon and Apple downgrades ? Hardly.
Microsoft's shares actually rose. Today they went up more than five dollars. I say wow. The house of pleasure. Let me tell you what happens if you're at a research firm and you cover Microsoft after today's big game. Well , you've been huddled in your bunker. You've been afraid. You're worried about macroeconomics.
You're terrified that the stock will fall a little more each day. Drip, drip, drip, drip. You're thinking of downgrading the stock because the pain is too great. You have to get rid of the pain. You need to get rid of the anvil on your back. Ah, but then this other OP analyst beat you to it . However, once you see that the discount didn't work, that's when you realize the damage is already done.
And the bad news is, mark my words, someone will come out tomorrow recommending the stock. Hey, you know what? Many people may see them clearly. Now, for me, all this is nonsense. You don't want to wait 30 points from the maximum to lower Microsoft's rating. It's Microsoft. But the stocks seem somewhat immune after that downgrade, do n't they?
Oh, it's not just technology. Anyone who has watched Pepsco's stock these past few weeks knows that it has performed terribly. Last month they dropped to 179, then to 167, and in fact, they were trading at 165 where they were trading at 6 a.m. when the figures were reported. It was a highly anticipated weekly quarter .
So the question is, was it really weaker than expected? I don't believe it. In fact, given that analysts spent day after day saying it was going to be a miserable quarter, I thought when I saw the results, they weren't so bad. In addition, the latter part of the quarter was better once Pepsco began spending more aggressively.
Hey, Fred was coming back within the term. The company met its earnings growth rate forecast of 8%, which I think turned out to be quite good for a food company. It's no surprise that it ended up rising by an astonishing 3.21%. I thought that was extraordinary. This action, okay, look. This stock was at 65.
I'm going to do it right. It was 65. When I saw the figures for the first time, I couldn't believe it. I said, "Wow, those numbers are pretty good." And then they scored five consecutive points. It's a remarkable comeback. Simply remarkable. I think the people who sold the shares at 165 and closed at 174...
I think they need to rethink their modus operandi or maybe they should quit their day jobs. Very good. What about Honeywell? I criticized the company by asking when CEO Viml Kapoor planned to unlock value. I was waiting, waiting, waiting. Today he is making the decision to split a key part of the business, spinning off Honeywell's chemical business for its shareholders in a move reminiscent of how Dan Hurst repeatedly separated himself from parts of himself.
It is a new and welcome release of value. However, the market practically yawned. The shares rose less than 2%. At one point , the stock barely rose. It is being completely ignored. That's crazy. Now, here we have a much-anticipated spin-off that makes the rest of the company much more focused. Three divisions: automation, aerospace and energy transition, all very large teams with a now faster growth rate.
This is truly fantastic news. Honeywell is a great fit for my travel fund and I've been pushing for this huge positive change all along . However, what happens? The stocks do almost nothing all morning. At a certain point, they hardly change. They end at $367. I thought this should make the stock rise by at least five dollars.
Speaking of complacency. How can it be that people don't care more? Oh, you know what? Actually, we know the reasons, don't we? First, we were surprised at how badly the bonds were negotiated. Long-term interest rates have been rising for many sessions. Second, we are waiting for the other shoe to fall in the oil market.
But this is what I have to say. What does that have to do with Honeywell's greatness in spinning off a division that will make it a more agile, more focused, and better-managed company with a higher share price multiple ? I'll tell you, it means nothing to Honeywell's history. However, on Wall Street, bad timing is everything.
This is the conclusion. I need you to understand that when analysts downgrade after stocks have already taken a hard hit, when good investors ignore the positives, it may be a bleak time, but not so bleak that we ca n't make money by focusing on the fundamentals of companies and not just the economy, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and oil.
Let's go with Jim, in New Jersey. Jim, hello Jim, it's a pleasure to talk to you. I owe you a big one. You're the best in the class. Thank you. Thanks, Jim. Oh. Thank you so much. I wish my wife could say that you think that way. Yes. Well, I'm sure she knows that. Well, Planter caught my attention in February.
Yes. I bought it and then, of course, I sold it. Because? Well, you know, so I wanted to buy it again when the price went down. Okay. Okay. And when is that going to happen? Well, I bought it for 35 and it went down yesterday. Okay. Okay, fine. Look, this is what I think of Palunteer. It's a cold action.
The magazines called her that. I didn't have to do it. But this is what you know. It is privately owned. They love it. They raise it. Every time it goes up, there are buyers. These things happen periodically. It turns out it's a good company. I wouldn't buy it up here, but Colt buyers never get tired of it.
And it seems they're taking it higher every day. Stay a while and see what happens . This is Beecto. Tim in Georgia. Tim. Jim, I love your show. I've been watching it for many years. Thanks, Tim. Thank you so much. Yes. Calling through Carnival Cruise Lines . I've been observing him lately. Things are looking pretty good.
Good reserves, good income, profits, even a reasonable P/E ratio today. However, the company still has a high debt. There is a lot of unrest in the world. And now we have Milton. It appears to be crossing Florida and is possibly on track to attack two of its departure terminals. So, what do you think?
Well, look, I don't know about the actual weather forecast or how things are going to go . I know I prefer Royal Caribbean. I think it has better balance sheets, it has more momentum, but Carnival is good. I wouldn't look at these cruise stocks as if they were truly fantastic. They're all good, but Royal Caribbean is my favorite.
I also like Viking. Okay , listen. When analysts downgrade the rating after the stock has already been hit, sell, sell, sell. It may seem daunting, but it's never so daunting that you can't make money by focusing on the fundamental aspects of business. Well, I'm telling you , with Hurricane Milton approaching Florida, I'm talking to Generrack to find out how the power generation company is helping millions of people prepare for the second major storm to hit the Gulf Coast in less than two weeks.
So , should you focus on finances ? I'm going to reveal three banks that are earning a spot on my list of strong S&P 500 stocks. Also, aerospace company Standard Arrow made its market debut last week. I'm analyzing its place in the industry and how you should view its initial takeoff. And you won't want to miss it.
So stick with Kramer. Don't miss a single second of Mad Money. Follow Jim Kramer on X. Do you have any questions? Tweet Kramer #madmentions. Email Jim at [email protected] or call us at 1800743 CNNBC. Did you miss something? Go to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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