저자: TheTeslaGuy · 외국인
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엔비디아는 마지막 10분 대량 매도로 약 1.5% 하락했으나 일봉 추세선 저항 돌파 전까지 210 지지 확인이 중요하다고 봄. 217~218 돌파 시 225~226 목표. AMD는 500달러 지지 유지 시 상승 기대하나 주봉 이격으로 리스크 상승. AVGO는 돌파 후 실적 전 조정 시 매수 관점, TSM은 440·470 목표로 추가 조정 후 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, what's up and welcome to a new Nvidia daily update video. So today, as per usual guys, let's go over Nvidia. Let's go over the other semi peers as well. Let's go over what happened today. In the last 10 minutes of the market, there's been a huge movement, not only just in Nvidia. A lot of stocks saw a lot of movement, right?
You can go to the 1-minute chart, you can see the volume. You can see where it started, right? Pretty much right at 3:50. It's always at 3:50, by the way. Let's just keep that in mind. That's when the big boy orders come in, especially at month's end and especially at quarter's end. Nvidia saw a pretty significant sell-off, actually.
That was a huge sell-off. I mean, just from that alone, this stock dropped about almost 3%. That's pretty remarkable. Um but a lot of stocks, you can see just going through these names, right? The volume, you can see spiked in that last 10 minutes. So, which is again, just it's when the big boys reposition.
It just It is what it is, guys. Um yeah, I'll go over everything. I'll give you my thoughts. Did this ruin Nvidia? Is Nvidia now officially bearish again or is this just a little bit of a noopsie doopsie? I'll give you my honest thoughts. If you enjoy, don't forget to hit that like button. This is not financial advice.
I'm not a financial advisor. But again, I do share my thoughts with my members, guys, every single day as the market is open and trading, so definitely check that out. That link is of course down below. Just press that join button for three bucks a month. Gives you access to all my Tesla updates and the broader market updates.
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So, Nvidia actually down a percent and a half after having a pretty nice day, actually. It had a pretty good day. It was actually doing exactly what we wanted it to do until the last 10 minutes, quite literally. Because again, if we go over to the 1-minute chart, just for fun, right? Right before that huge sell order happened, Nvidia was at uh we'll just say 217, almost, right?
Almost at 217, which would have mean which would have meant that Nvidia, you know, if we closed relatively flat at 217, we would have closed somewhere up here, which would have been absolutely fantastic. That's exactly what we wanted to see. until the last 10 minutes started. Now, it does slightly elevate risk, but I don't think it elevates it to the point where I'm suddenly like, "Oh my god, no, no, no, no, please no." Like, you know, scared and oh my god, this is so bad.
Oh my god, it's all going to to hell and no, I don't think it's anything that bad. But, it does make the chart I don't want to say make the chart look worse. It doesn't necessarily make it look worse. It's just not as good as it could have been based on what we saw pretty much for 95% of today aside from the last, you know, 10 minutes.
Now, moving forward, what does this actually mean? So, let's just get the obvious out of the way. We did technically go from a bullish engulfing to now a bearish engulfing. Now, obviously, as you saw, we didn't really have any technically any follow-through, you know, because of the last 10 minutes.
Doesn't mean we'll get any follow-through on the bearish engulfing either. So, we'll see how Monday goes. That's number one. But, I do want to jump actually to the one-hour here very quickly. Why? Because, again, what we were talking of for quite some time is that Nvidia was making, especially more recently, these lower lows, lower highs this entire time.
And this was that first higher high, right? We broke above the previous higher uh lower high, made that lower low, printed that higher high. And now, as far as I'm concerned, this is us pushing back down to make that uh first higher low, which is going to be very important, by the way. Essentially, I don't want to go below 210 again, guys.
To me, that continues being that sort of main level to watch out for. 210, guys. 210, 210, 210. I don't want to see much lower than 210. Worst case, I guess 208, right? That $2 range that's It's very important that we hold, but ideally 210 because that also would be this green Fibonacci on the one-hour timeframe after making this first higher high to now making this first higher low.
And now, we can start to reap um change even the short-term trend, if that makes sense. You know what I mean? So, we'll have to see how this continues Monday, guys. Very important. But, I do want to round off from here. That is going to be very, very important to watch and, you know, very ideal. Let's just say that.
But, moving forward, we the rejection that we did have today, even though the last 10 minutes was very sussy, uh still was again, this trendline up here did not move it at all. It's been the same trendline that has been on my screen for the past few days. Did not move it even the slightest. And you can see where we rejected at, almost to perfection, right at it.
So, what does this actually mean? Well, clearly we are in this little pattern right here. And clearly we need to break above this trendline. Simply put, if we break above two days high once again, or even slightly below it, but pretty much 217 to 218, once that range breaks once again, maybe as early as Monday potentially, maybe some news comes out, who knows.
But once that breaks one more time above 217 to 2 18 roughly, that in my opinion is when Nvidia really starts to make its way higher and we begin to blast off with the first main target being about 225 to 226. But at that point, I would expect this to be a blast off up and to the right, closer to fresh all-time highs.
Now, again, this does take into account that I definitely want to hold 210, you know, again, worst case about 208. I definitely want to round off from there. I don't want to see much lower than that. And I definitely don't want to see daily candle closures below 208, guys. That is something I, you know, would very much prefer to not to see.
Because if we do that, like I mentioned before, that does open up short-term continued weakness down to the green Fibonacci's over here at about 203, 202 potentially, which would be more pain. It is what it is, guys. You can keep that in mind. That is That is a risk here that, you know, it is worth understanding and assessing.
Just Let's not forget that. Let's not pretend it's, you know, easy street here and it's just guaranteed to go up. Nothing is guaranteed. There's always a risk. Make sure you always understand that. But with that being said, again, I'll we're still in the same range that we were for the last almost four days arguably, right?
So, I definitely want to see a continued round off. But again, if you're someone that just continues looking for strength, you're looking for confirmation, you're looking for the price to start giving you actual breakout signal vibes um on the daily timeframe. I don't know why I said vibes, but actual breakout signals, you are looking for a breakout above this trendline.
Like I said, about 217, 18-ish, right? Watch for a breakout again, pretty much the same thing we did back here when we were in this consolidation, very similar when we broke out on that candle. You're looking for something similar, guys. So, watch for that moving forward. Break above that and I think we're ready to head higher.
But again, that's someone that's willing to buy higher. You're not willing to knife catch here. You don't care about catching the bottom. You care about catching it when the train is ready to move. So, it just depends on your kind of trading style, your risk tolerance, etc. Right? There's There's no correct answer.
There's no right way to do it. It just really depends. This is higher reward, but higher risk because if you're buying here and it does fall apart, well, that sucks to suck. But up here, the reward is technically less compared to if you bought it here and it went up, but your risk is also less because now you're buying on you know, strength.
You know what I mean? Again, each to their own. Uh the weekly The weekly is still looking great. I I don't see any issues with the weekly. I still view this as being uh treating this area. You can see this these kind of candles right here on the weekly or we can even take this right here and put it like this, right?
Beautiful. Let's go ahead and take that. Let's go ahead and put it here. Let's put it on the current interval. Beautiful stuff, right? Uh yeah, the weekly still looks fine to me. I don't see any major problems, right? I still view this as just being a higher low on the weekly being set. It's still above the nine weekly exponential moving average.
We're taking previous all-time highs and double resistance levels and trying to turn it into support. So, I still view this on the weekly in the bigger picture uh as nothing majorly concerning. I It would have to Something pretty bad would have to happen for this to really start to be concerning. Like, we would have to pretty much drop below 195 for me to really start getting worried.
Then it's like, "Oh, eh maybe not as good, but and and even then there's probably an argument to be made that this is just a deeper bullish pullback." I you know, we'll see. We'll get there if we get there. I don't want to start talking about what ifs, you know, who cares? All we care about right now is where we are and what we're looking for.
And that's continuing to be the exact same thing right here, right? Where again, we're just trying to treat this old area of resistance and all-time high resistance as support with the nine weekly exponential moving average not far below us to round off from like this and make our way higher. So, all eyes remains to be around that range, guys.
So, let's continue monitoring that going into next week. Uh AMD, AMD actually uh holding fantastically. It's actually doing uh pretty much exactly what you want it to do from a bullish perspective. It closed nicely above 500. It is turning this region right here. You can see already back into a support on today's candle.
Though AMD did get some buying pressure while Nvidia got that massive sell-off, AMD actually got a pretty nice amount of buying pressure in those last few minutes of about 1 and 1/2% but it is turning it into a beautiful support. So, overall on AMD what you want to see it move uh moving forward is you want to see the 90 EMA catch up to price.
You want to see AMD continuing to hold support here around $500 per share and ultimately round off from here and continue higher. Now, it is worth risk understanding the risk here is elevated mainly because on the weekly it is very extended from the nine weekly. Like usually for me personally, when I see a chart this far away from the nine weekly exponential moving average, it's not that there's no room to play.
I mean, you know, if you thought the same thing here, you would have missed this whole candle. So, there is room to play. I don't want to see it make it seem like there isn't. It's just you have to understand the risk is elevated and it will require more careful monitoring of the situation because you know, I trade off the daily primarily.
Like most of my trades if not I don't know, 80% of my trades are off the daily and the other like 15 is probably the weekly and the other 5% is like smaller time frames. When I see a candle or a chart this distant from the weekly nine EMA, I'm more I I don't know, hesitant I guess is I don't know if that's the right word to use here, but I'm more cautious I guess is a better word.
Again, not to say that there's no room to play. Not to say that, you know, the daily can still give us continued, you know, bullish signals and uh patterns and whatever. It's just, you know, worth understanding that the risk is elevated simply because of the weekly being this extended. So, it's just again, hopefully that makes sense, right?
Take that as you will. But nonetheless, you know, you want to continue seeing this 500 or so region be supported and round off higher off of the 9 EMA as well. Uh AVGO breaking out. AVGO is looking fantastic, even better than Nvidia. So, let's see if Nvidia can follow follow through, hopefully soon, right?
But AVGO seems like it also got a nice bit of a Nvidia is the only one that sold off, it seems like, man. If The money went to everything but Nvidia. What's going on, guys? Focus up. But nonetheless, I yeah, very nice breakout. This is exactly what the bulls wanted to see on AVGO. Earnings is coming up, guys.
Keep in mind, next week, Wednesday. So, that is the risk here. But aside from that, you know, you want to see any pullbacks, maybe on earnings, back down to 430, even the mid 420s to round off higher and be bullish pullbacks to support from old resistance and ultimately make its way higher to fresh highs on the bigger on the bigger picture.
But yeah, overall, it looks actually quite good. Uh TSM also looks pretty solid. Um I do think this can continue consolidating here a little bit longer before we really find our footing. You know, also the 9 EMA pulling back, right? We're treating old resistance as new support, you know, it can definitely come back down to the low 14s again, especially as the 9 EMA slowly catches up to the weekly and we kind of meet it somewhere around in the low 14s as well.
But I want to see a round off from here as well, right? I still think TSM looks pretty fantastic. I don't I definitely want to see any continued pullbacks to the downside [snorts] um to be bought up like this and ultimately make their way to the next target of about 440 followed by about 470, guys. But nonetheless, that's all I got for you. Thank you so much for watching. I'll see you in the next one. Peace.
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