저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오는 중국 시장이 유동성과 시장 깊이를 갖추고 개혁이 진행 중이라 투자할 만하다고 보며, 브리지워터의 중국 펀드 모집을 지지한다. 중국과의 관계: 1984년부터 중국을 방문해 왔고, 1989년 금융시스템이 없던 시기부터 중국 금융기관 설립을 돕는 인맥을 쌓아 왔다고 설명한다. 부채 문제: 중국의 부채 수준이 미국보다 낮지만 부채 문제는 존재한다고 인정한다. 다만 부채가 자국 통화로 표시되어 있어 만기 연장, 이자율 조정 등으로 관리 가능하다고 본다. 정책 입안자들이 현명하고 실용적이라고 평가한다. 개혁과 전망: 최근 3년간 자본시장 혁신과 금융시장 개방이 빠르게 진행되어 유동성과 깊이를 갖춘 시장이 형성되고 있다고 본다. 시장 중심적 경제로의 개혁이 이어질 것으로 기대한다. 투자 판단: 상승이든 하락이든 중국에 투자하지 않을 합당한 이유가 없다고 말한다. 국가가 어디든 의사결정의 정확성이 핵심이며, 2008년에 위기를 예상해 잘 대응했다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 중국 주식·자산 가격의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없고, 장기적으로 중국에 투자할 가치가 있다는 견해가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
uh now Ray the Wall Street Journal reported that Bridgewater is raising money for a new China fund what is the latest on this and and what is so appealing about China to you i mean many are worried about rising debt levels slowing economic growth what's your take i've been going to China since 1984 long before they had any money and i've been enjoying that and over those periods of time i've built these wonderful relationships and i've seen them from um in 1989 there was a group in china of uh seven people who when they didn't have a financial system uh were working out of uh a dingy hotel room and that was for them to build the financial system and i've had a pleasure of all through that time to develop wonderful relationships um that with time helped to build help them think through their um you know their institutions and so the relationship has been fantastic so naturally what we want to do is to continue to grow with uh them as they're growing in their financial markets and the way they've opened up their financial markets and created um capital market innovation over the last three years really i mean it's an incredibly fast pace means that they're they have liquid markets which have depth um and um you know accessibility so of course we're going to want to be part of that china's debt levels is that a worry for you as you explore deeper into china china china has a much lower level of debt but they have debt they definitely have a debt issue but the debt is denominated in their own currency and what i found is that their economic policy makers are are very very um smart and sensible people they've been the world has been talking about the debt problem for a long time and we were one of the first to bring up the fact that there is a debt problem but um when a debt is denominated in one's own currency it's manageable the usual ways in other words you might extend the maturity of the debt you might alter whose balance sheet it's on you might um have the interest rates uh changed you go through certain processes that we've been through to be able to manage that debt and and there's there they've done an excellent job i'm most importantly um interested in the capabilities of the people who did it we went through our particular debt problems every country does it i'm uh i'm genuinely excited about the quality of the leadership and in terms of practicality they can get stuff done and right um their reforms are a move toward you know sensible much more market driven um economics but with uh guidance so i i see the end of innovation i'm very excited about China but anyway uh it's like your question would be a little bit like asking me would you want to leave the united states because the united states has a debt problem i was here in the united states i love the markets we did well in 2008.
in our business the key question is whether you make the decisions correctly not there's not such thing as a bull market or a bear market 2008 because we anticipated the crisis we did well in any country it's the same set of rules so China is no different than using that investing in any other country that has um liquidity and the right kind of markets whether they go up or down we'll you know we'll be there there's no good reason not to be in China and there's a special appeal because i'm you know i know it well and i've been there for a long time
Comments 0