Ray Dalio: What I Have Learned from My Biggest Failure

요약 보기

레이 달리오가 1980년대 초 멕시코 디폴트를 예측해 명성을 얻었지만, 그 직후 주식시장 바닥에서 비관적으로 베팅해 큰 손실을 본 경험과 그로부터 얻은 교훈을 회고한다. 1982년 8월 멕시코 디폴트를 예측해 의회 증언과 월가 위크 출연 등 주목을 받았다. 당시 그는 신생 회사를 운영하는 젊은 투자자였다. 그러나 경제가 더 무너질 것이라 보고 비관적으로 베팅했는데, 그 시점이 바로 주식시장의 저점이었다. 이로 인해 직원 7~8명을 해고해야 했고, 가족 생활비를 위해 아버지에게 4천 달러를 빌릴 정도로 파산 직전까지 갔다. 이 경험은 '내가 옳다'에서 '내가 옳다는 것을 어떻게 아는가'로 사고방식을 바꾸게 했다. 겸손과 대담함의 균형, 똑똑한 반대자의 논리를 찾아 이해하려는 태도가 생겼다. 이는 Bridgewater의 메리토크라시 개념으로 이어졌다. 반대 의견을 존중하는 건설적 논쟁, 한 베팅에 지배당하지 않도록 리스크를 분산하는 방식이 핵심이다. 또한 역사를 공부해야 한다는 교훈을 얻었다. 1971년 달러 변동환율제 전환 등 과거 사건을 통해 위기는 반복되며, 시대와 국가를 초월한 보편적 원칙을 세워야 한다는 결론이다. 핵심 교훈: 확률을 높이기 위해 열린 토론을 하고, 베팅 크기를 균형 있게 조절하며, 역사에 근거한 불변의 의사결정 규칙을 가져야 한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we were preparing to offer to pay off the debt of mexico you had predicted the same thing occurring late 70s early 80s take us back to that point in time what are the lessons learned well it was it was it was my biggest lesson at the time uh so yeah i went through the calculations and it was very controversial point of view that these countries would not be able to pay their debts and events started to transpire and mexico defaulted on in august of 1982 and because i had anticipated that and i got a lot of attention i was you know a young guy and i was asked to speak to congress and explain to them what was going on and i was on wall street week and if you want to see ray you can go to a youtube video that's uh from a ted talk that you could see him testifying yeah uh go to the ted talk it's you'll see that moment and that moment i'm testifying to congress on wall and wall street week and i figure we're going to have a hell of a debt crisis and the economy is going down and that was the exact bottom in the stock market i couldn't have been more wrong i i was so wrong i had to i had a small company then i had um i think it was probably like seven eight people or so these were close people i had to let them go i was um so broke that i had to borrow four thousand dollars from my dad to help to pay for my family bills this was one of the most painful experiences how much money were you managing at that time oh i mean nothing that you know i i can't i can't remember but not much um and you know and i scrapped myself up to that point and um and it was the most painful and probably the best most valuable experience i ever had in my life because it changed my approach to decision making you know i went from thinking i'm right to thinking how do i know i'm right it gave me the humility that i needed to balance with my audacity it made me start to think it made me want to find out the smartest people who disagreed with me and to understand their reasoning you know have thoughtful disagreement it led to me it was the reason we wanted to make this idea meritocracy it was the main reason like give me the smartest people i can have around me and let's have those arguments and how do we get past those and it led to the idea meritocratic and it was really from that point forward that that to knowing how to balance risk like you we talked about going into the trump election trying to make sure imbalance risk but also it taught me about looking at history that the surprises that i had were um things that happened in in history but never happened in my lifetime before like in in i was clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange in 1971 when the dollar was floated and so i walked on the floor of the stock exchange and people wouldn't accept dollars in the money and i i figured okay what major crisis and um and the stock market went up and i thought it was going to go down a lot you know this is when i was in college and and i realized that when i went back that there were devaluations that happened not in my lifetime before but happened before so it was to know that everything happens over and over again this these were the lessons lessons are the ability to have thoughtful disagreement uh so to raise the probabilities of being right to find the smartest people who disagree with you and understand their reasoning to know how to balance the bets well so that there's no one bet that becomes an important thing and you become dominated an election or anything else and also to to go to history that if you if things happened in the past or in some other country and you don't understand them then you're going to be in trouble so you need to have timeless rules and universal rules so we have a criteria that every all of our decision rules have got to be timeless and universal so those are the lessons that i took out of that very painful experiences and that's really what has served me and bridgewater well since then