Ray Dalio: How I Decide When to Short the Market (Cases of Brazil and South Korea)

요약 보기

결론: 레이 달리오는 정치 이벤트를 과도하게 확대 해석하지 말고, 경제 펀더멘털과 가치평가(가격 대비 가치)에 기반해 투자 판단을 해야 한다고 주장한다. [브라질 사례] 2016년 브라질은 대통령 탄핵, 전직 대통령 기소, 페트로브라스 문제, 지카 바이러스 유행, 고인플레이션, 실업률 급등 등 악재가 겹쳤지만 결과적으로 통화와 주식시장이 세계 최고 수준의 성과를 냈다고 설명한다. [핵심 논리: 가치평가와 변화] 사람들이 사랑하는 나라는 대개 비싸고, 증오받는 나라는 싸기 쉽다. '피가 거리에 흐를 때 사라'는 격언처럼 공포 시점이 매수 기회일 수 있다. 좋은 것이 과대평가되고 나쁜 것이 저평가될 수 있으므로 가치를 계산하고 변화를 예상하는 능력이 필요하다. [한국 사례: 2015년 시점 가정] 2017년 트럼프 당선, 북한과의 설전, 북한의 도발 관련 영상 등 불안 요인이 있었지만, 달리오는 한국 투자를 고려했을 것이라고 가정한다. 서울에 인구의 절반이 몰려 있다는 점도 언급한다. 실제로 당시 한국의 환율과 주가는 상승했다고 언급한다. [정치·전쟁 리스크에 대한 견해] 정치와 전쟁은 과장되게 해석되는 경향이 있다. 케네디 암살, 진주만 공습 등 여러 전쟁의 사례를 들며, 실제로 시장을 장기적으로 파괴한 것은 드물다고 본다. 명백한 파국적 사건이 없다면 경제 여건이 중요하며, 한국처럼 경제가 좋은 지역은 기업과 통화에 긍정적이라고 주장한다. [결론적 시사점] 정치 뉴스에 휘둘리기보다 경제 펀더멘털과 밸류에이션, 그리고 시장 심리의 극단(공포/과열)을 보라는 메시지다. [출연자 전망] 영상은 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언을 포함하지 않으며, 한국·브라질에 대한 장기적 긍정 관점이 중심이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. conventional wisdom let's see if you knew that the president of brazil was going to be impeached if you knew that they were going to indict the previous president if you knew that the largest company in brazil petrobras was going to have all these issues and you knew there was a zika epidemic inflation runnings unbelievably high unemployment doubling and increasing and you could say to yourself boy these things are happening in brazil in 2016.

02. would you short the market if you knew the future or would you buy it or would you not invest in brazil and so obviously brazil in retrospect was the currency and the market one of the best performing markets in the world ray can you tell us how to look at something like that yeah sure sure um if you took two years before that three years before that um it would have been the um everybody was loving brazil you know and it was very very expensive right if it's loved it's probably expensive right if it's hated there's a good chance it's cheap right there's a saying of the the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets right so to know that something that is good may may be very overpriced and something that is bad may be very cheap you have to know how to do calculate value and also expect change let's look at even something a little more current it's 19 it's uh 2015 and you were reading the newspaper in 2017.

03. president trump has been elected you've been able to look two years in the future he's now in a verbal war uh with the leader of north korea okay every day uh they're doing things now north korea is creating video games showing how they're bombing u.s aircraft carriers etc and having the students work on how to do this in school a lot of volatility in the world people concerned should you be investing in south korea at this period of time since you knew the future well generally you'd be thinking well i'm not going to invest who knows they're pretty close and half the population of the country lives in seoul so they have difficulties well if we look at how south korea financial markets are doing this year you'll see that their currency has moved up versus the u.s currency their stock market's moved up substantially take us to 2017 and south korea um well politics um is also something to be fading uh wars are something to fade i mean if you look at the history um you could take kennedy's assassination you could take the most of the wars that we've gone into and so on in including uh the bombing of pearl harbor um and various wars and um i think people exaggerate the implications of the wars in other words they there's a tendency to think that politics or global affairs can destroy something and then we're talking about the same phenomenon when it's perceived as something that's not discounting the economic so if we take korea if there's not a um catastrophic event uh you have a situation economically and that's going on in in that region economically that's fantastic for companies and very strong for the currency so i think it's right now it's knowledgeable that the politics is not something that um is an overarching issue unless there is you know the catastrophic event but there tends not to be the catastrophic events