저자: NathanWinklepleck,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아는 최근 1년간 주가가 약 3배 올랐고 매출·이익도 크게 늘었지만, 현재 시가총액(약 2.2조달러)을 정당화하려면 향후 15년간 이익을 연 20.4%씩 성장해야 한다는 역배당할인모델(reverse DDM) 분석을 제시. 애플 아이폰 사례와 비교하면 기대치가 매우 높고, 경쟁·실행 리스크가 존재한다고 설명. 최종 매수 여부는 시장 기대 대비 본인의 견해에 달려 있다는 결론.
다듬은 글
in today's video we're going to be talking about one of the hottest stocks in today's stock market Nvidia 3 weeks ago I get a question from Tech peeves and he says what is your thoughts on Nvidia should I buy now can you do an analysis on Nvidia as your next video I want to see how a pro takes a part a company research then before reaching a conclusion on whether it is a good investment this question was asked uh 3 weeks ago so hopefully Tech peeves actually bought Nvidia instead of asking me whether he should or shouldn't because the stock is up 19.7% in the last month alone but that's nothing compared to what it's done over the Last 5 Years Nvidia is up 26% in 5 years that is truly extraordinary performance and in the last 12 months alone the stock has gone basically parabolic down here it was around $300 a share and right now it's uh basically tripled that up to over $900 per share and it's pretty much gone up every single week for the entirety of 2024 of course everyone knows the biggest reason why Nvidia and other semiconductor chips are going nuts and that is because artificial intelligence every single company on planet Earth is investing in artificial intelligence which means they need need Nvidia chips in order to run that and if AI is the future which all indications seem to suggest that it is then Nvidia has a very bright future ahead but this is where investing is much more difficult than the average person thinks and the reason is because of the difference between first level and second level thinking first level thinking is represented by this caveman on the left this is most investors including most professional investors the logic of this person this first level thinking is that hey the future is AI so that means that automatically all of the AI related companies must be good Investments right so that means Nvidia in particular as the leader of AI chips that is going to be a phenomenal investment and indeed so far that's been the case but the second level thinking is what really good investors get to and that is okay everyone already knows that AI is the future so the stock price as we just saw is going to go up to reflect this Rosy Outlook but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to go up what matters is what is the market currently pricing in what does that $940 price tag reflect and what does the actual future hold for NVIDIA does it justify this price does it justify a higher price or does it justify a lower price so if it justifies a higher price than 940 that means Nvidia is a good buy if the future comes in lower than expected that means Nvidia is a bad investment how much does Nvidia need to grow at in order to justify this current price and do you think that is or is not reasonable and in the investing world this is called valuation and it is what Warren Buffett and many others have used in order to outperform the market over the long term what growth do we think the market is currently willing to pay for and to the answer that question we're going to use the dividend discount model specifically something that I and others would call the reverse dividend discount model but before we get into the reverse dividend discount model we need to First understand the basic assumptions of a dividend discount model so a dividend discount model assumes that a business and this could be a dividend or non-dividend paying business the logic of the dividend discount model that John bur Williams introduced Originators of the dividend discount model and really modern valuation Tools in a lot of cases uh rely upon John bur Williams uh founding work but he argued and I think correctly so that a business is only worth what its owners can take out in the future which are dividends so any company whether it pays a dividend today or not is only worth money if it will at some point in the future pay dividends to its owners and logically I think this has to be true if you have a company that you own it can be a private business or any business if you own the business and you know for sure that business will never pay you anything out of the business it will only earn profits pay employees reinvest money back into the business and then ultimately go bankrupt without ever paying you anything is that company worth anything today I would argue and John B Williams would argue that no that business is not and cannot logically be worth anything therefore all value today is based upon the expectation that a company will pay dividends in the future and that is what the dividend discount model assumes it also assumes that you probably want to earn some kind of return on your investment that is called a discount rate so if a company is going to pay you $1 million in dividends over the next 20 years you do not want to pay $1 million for that business today because if you did you're going to earn a 0% return so if you want to make more than 0% you're going to have to Discount all of these cash flows back to today's value and we can do that with a time value of money calculation let's say maybe you pay $300,000 today so over time as you collect your $1 million in dividends you will have earned a 10% return on this $300,000 initial investment and the third assumption is that companies tend to have uh what's called a fast growing phase and then more of a constant growing phase so you cannot grow your earnings at say 100% per year basically like Nvidia is doing you cannot do that forever because eventually your company would exceed the entire market value uh the entire GDP of the entire global economy and we know that the future economy is not going to be entirely uh semiconductor chips and even if it is uh that industry is going to be across multiple competitors it's not just going to be Nvidia eventually all companies must grow at the rate of the overall economy or less now let's get into the nitty-gritty of Nvidia and let's actually build this reverse dividend discount model to see whether it's a good value or not we've got here is nvidia's sales over the prior 12 months so I've heard a lot of people say that this is like the 199s tech bubble but it's really not I mean there is a lot of sales justifying why Nvidia is doing what it's doing stock prices basically tripled but if you look at sales they have more than doubled and their profits their earnings have actually more than tripled so if you go back here to about a year ago they were earning about $5 billion in earnings and now that is almost $30 billion but of that 30 billion they only pay $395 million in dividends and so this is where the concept of payout ratio comes into play so payout ratio simply tells us okay how much of this company's earnings in this case here are they paying out as dividends so $395 million in dividends divided by $ 29.7 billion in profits means that they're paying out roughly 1% the analogy that I'm going to use for a more mature Semiconductor Company is Texas Instruments and for reference they pay out 71% over time it's fair to assume that Nvidia is probably going to increase their payout ratio from 1% to something higher than that and the last piece of the puzzle here is market cap so right now the market is saying that nvidia's entire business is worth about 2.2 trillion so in this dividend discount model we are going to basically try to back into the assumptions that Nvidia has to hit in order to justify the value here so if we take all of those starting revenues here in year 1 we've got the payout ratio here dividends here we are estimating the payout ratio is going to go from 1.3% which is where it is today to 71% in 15 years which is where it's going to be a more mature company we're also saying that the long-term growth rate of Nvidia is going to be 5% and that is roughly equal to the nominal GDP growth of the US economy over time uh so at that point in time Nvidia is not going to be growing at you know 300% per year like they have been recently uh that's going to slow which it logically must so using these assumptions uh we can back into just how quickly they need to grow in order to justify this market cap we will put in a growth rate over the next 15 years that results in the discounted present value of all of these dividends over time back to today we'll sum all of those up and try to find where it reaches roughly the current market value of Nvidia down here below this model in year 15 is suggesting that Nvidia would need to earn $48.6 billion with a b and of those profits they would need to pay out 71% or $341.25 for 15 years that is worth in current dollars about 81.6 billion if you were to invest that much today and get back this much in 15 years you would you would have made a 10% rate of return so what is the compound annual growth rate of the current profits which would be 29.7 billion to the Future profits needed to justify the stock price of 48.6 billion it turns out that is 20.4% so Nvidia right now based on its current profits of 29.7 billion they need to grow that at 20.4% per year every single year for the next 15 years if they can do that they will earn $480 billion and that will justify the current price tag at a 10% rate of return that is a very extraordinary feat and to figure out just how extraordinary it is let's take a look at one other company that introduced a revolutionary new product and that is Apple Apple introduced the iPhone back in 2007 and that has been probably the single most SU successful product of Our Generation it's led to all kinds of profits for apple on the iPhone itself and all the services that it's generated let's go back 15 years which is what this chart does and see just how much of an increase in net income Apple experienced from the iPhone so if you look here this was about $3.8 billion that's how much Apple earned back in 2009 today Apple earns $1.9 billion and if you calculate the compound annual growth rate of Apple's net income from introducing the iPhone it comes out to 22.5% the market is basically saying that Nvidia today is like apple was back in 2009 do you think Nvidia today is apple as it was back in 2009 if that actually comes to fruition you will make 10% annually on nvidia's stock price today so that's not even that that great of a return considering that stocks as a whole have historically generated roughly that amount so really Nvidia needs to grow faster than that in the future in order to make it a outperforming stock so the expectations are clearly very lofty there are also some risks to that growth first of all consider the side it is much more difficult to grow a business from a big size like Nvidia is now into an even bigger one it's much easier for companies to grow when they are small so Nvidia at $2.1 trillion is already a massive company and the profits that it needs to get to in order to achieve this current valuation is 480 billion that is four times almost five times greater than Apple's current net income of 101 billion so investors are currently betting that Nvidia is going to earn five times roughly more than Apple is today and obviously there's 15 years for that to increase but that is still still a very lofty estimate also keep in mind that there's a substantial level of competition Nvidia is going to face a ton of competition including from Apple itself to develop chips that compete with its own there's also a substantial risk with execution managing a big company with huge growth is a very difficult task any kind of missteps along the way or any kind of Miss on the technology uh or any strategy poor strategy execution is also going to put that growth at risk ultimately investing simply comes down to what do you think the future of the company looks like relative to what the market expects that future to look like if you're interested in doing a more in-depth Deep dive into companies and doing reverse dividend discount models of your own I'll put a link in the description down below to my patreon page I'll post the Excel spreadsheet on that page where you can download it thank you to everyone who's currently supporting me on patreon and YouTube premium uh your support really helps me to offset the costs of running this channel including all the research that I subscribed to so if you're interested in that or if you're just interested in supporting my work I would love to have you join that Community thanks to everyone for watching the video and I will see you in the next one
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