저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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2022년 8월 영상으로, 빌 애크먼의 인플레이션 경고와 2022년 1분기 포트폴리오 변화를 다룬다. 결론: 애크먼은 연준이 공격적으로 긴축하지 않으면 인플레이션은 경기침체와 주식시장 붕괴를 통해서만 잡힐 수 있다고 경고했다. 인플레이션 상황: 미국 인플레이션은 1년 전의 두 배 이상이며 1980년대 이후 최고 수준이라고 소개된다. 애크먼은 연준에 대한 신뢰 부족이 주식 매도의 원인이라고 봤다. 애크먼의 처방: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 공격적 통화긴축이나 경제 붕괴 중 하나뿐이라고 주장했다. 고용 과열, 에너지·식품·주거·노동 수급, 임금-물가 악순환을 근거로 들었다. 연준 금리: 기준금리는 0.75~1% 수준이며 지난달 0.5%p 인상했고, 향후 회의에서도 유사한 인상이 예상된다고 언급됐다. 다음 FOMC는 6월 14~15일이다. 시장 상황: S&P500은 연초 대비 약 18% 하락했고 5월에 잠시 약세장 영역에 진입했다. 영상은 투자자 신뢰가 회복되면 시장이 급등할 수 있다고 봤다. 애크먼 포트폴리오 매도: 힐튼 월드와이드 지분 약 21% 축소(약 260만 주), 도미노피자 약 1% 축소, 레스토랑브랜즈인터내셔널 약 3% 축소, 로우스 0.28% 축소. 애크먼 포트폴리오 매수: 캐나다퍼시픽 철도 약 13만 주 추가 매수, 넷플릭스 신규 편입(약 12억 달러 규모로 매수). 넷플릭스는 약 50% 하락한 상태였고, 이후 320만 주를 매도해 약 4억 달러 손실이 난 것으로 소개됐다. 출연자 전망: 애크먼은 연준이 행동하지 않으면 2022년 경기침체 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 영상은 리스크 관리를 통한 포트폴리오 보호를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
with prices skyrocketing and buyers losing purchasing power, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has taken it upon himself to be the voice of us all. Today on Business Mob, let's take a look at the warning Ackman gave us on what the Fed should do to keep inflation in check, and what could potentially happen if things don't work out.
Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor, has said exactly what we've all been thinking. All it takes is a trip to the grocery store or a look at your savings to realize that inflation is out of control everywhere. Today it is more than double what it was just a year ago, and it is currently the highest inflation rate seen in the United States in several decades, the highest since the 1980s. Every sector of the economy is suffering as a result of such high inflation. This includes the stock market. I think the better way to put it is that the U.S. stock markets are going to collapse.
Bill Ackman believes this is happening because of a simple lack of trust. According to him, investors are not confident that the Federal Reserve will be able to control inflation, and their sell-offs reflect this. According to him, there are only two options for resolving this situation. One of these methods places the Fed in a position of dominance, requiring them to make decisions that benefit the economy. The other method is the result of the Fed handing over complete control to chance.
Recently Ackman expressed his frustration and offered some advice on what should be done in a series of tweets. "The only way to stop today's raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or collapse in the economy. With today's unprecedented job openings, 3.6% unemployment, long-term supply and demand imbalances in energy, food, housing, and labor, as well as the wage-price spiral, there is no prospect of a material reduction in inflation unless the Fed aggressively raises rates or the stock market crashes, catalyzing an economic collapse and demand destruction."
Ackman is basically saying that if the Fed continues to fold their hands or play ignorant, inflation will still be corrected, but it will be corrected in a very brutal manner that comes with the stock market's collapse. And it's not far-fetched to think that either is possible.
Ever since this year began, the market has been on a big route as the Federal Reserve's tightening measures damp inflation-stoked fears of a recession. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point last month, its most aggressive move to date. However, this is not enough. The Fed has indicated that similar 50 basis point rate increases are likely at the coming meetings. The rate is currently targeted at 0.75% to 1%. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee next meets on June 14th and 15th, so we will have to see what they decide.
The scariest part is that we are only in the first half of the year, and the S&P 500 index is down about 18% year to date. The equity benchmark briefly dipped into bear market territory in May. Despite the necessary measures being difficult to swallow, Ackman believes that investors will welcome them at this stage. Everyone just wants the Fed to do something about inflation. Markets will soar once investors are confident that the days of runaway inflation are over. Let's hope the Fed gets it right. In another tweet, Ackman stated that only time will tell if the Fed will listen, or if 2022 will be the year that we face another recession.
With the situation this tense, it's difficult to predict what will happen next, but perhaps some insights into the moves of the great investors will be educational. In this spirit, we'll take a look at Ackman's portfolio as of the most recent updates for the first quarter of 2022. For someone who's concerned about inflation and a possible recession, let's take a look at what investments he's making.
Ackman, the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, a hedge fund management firm, had an active first quarter, with his hedge fund buying and selling a few positions. The thing that stands out in his portfolio is that while he dabbled in some purchases, the majority of his portfolio is a reduction in positions. Ackman reduced his stake in four of his positions in various ways. Let's take a look at those positions now.
Ackman sold nearly 2.6 million shares of Hilton Worldwide Holdings, reducing his position by nearly 21%. Hilton Worldwide Holdings, formerly Hilton Hotels Corporation, is an American multinational hospitality company that manages and franchises a diverse portfolio of hotels and resorts. They have been in business since 1919, and to date they have a slew of other hotels and brands to their name.
Another position that has been reduced is Domino's Pizza. Ackman reduced his position by slightly more than 1% by selling over 24,000 shares of stock. Domino's Pizza is a company that needs no introduction. I mean, you were probably there within the last week, but in case you were living under a rock, it's an American multinational pizza chain restaurant.
Another reduced position was Restaurant Brands International. This stock was reduced by 3%. It is a Canadian-American multinational fast food holding company. Ackman's love for fast food establishments has been made obvious with this list of stocks. With such a small stake disposed of, it makes you wonder why he even sold it in the first place.
Moving on to another reduced position, Lowe's is the final item on the list. This was another entry with a minuscule sell-off, reducing the stock by only 0.28% for the sale of slightly more than 29,000 shares. Lowe's is an American home improvement retailer headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina. The company operates a retail store chain in the United States and Canada.
When you look at these positions collectively, you can see that Ackman has reduced certain positions to give himself more wiggle room. For the ones that appear to have minor reductions, it's not difficult to conclude that Ackman has a small, tight portfolio. Unlike Berkshire's portfolio, Pershing Square Capital Management only has a few picks. I suppose one way to look at it is that the fewer the picks, the more faith Ackman has in them, which may explain the very careful sales made.
Now that we've seen the reductions in sales, let's look at the buys. Ackman had two purchases on the thin side of the ledger. One was a new position, and the other was in addition to an existing position. Let's take a quick look at them. Ackman increased his Canadian Pacific Railway holdings by just over 130,000 shares. The Canadian company, also known as Canadian Pacific, is a Canadian Class 1 railway founded in 1881. Looking at his other positions in this portfolio, it is clear that Ackman loves Canadian companies. With the stock dropping in price over the quarter, Ackman likely saw it as an opportunity to add to his position at a lower price.
The most significant change to his portfolio, however, is the addition of the entertainment giant Netflix to his holdings. By purchasing well over 3.1 million shares at a cost of nearly 1.2 billion dollars, this was a huge buy, funded by his pandemic profits. The frustrating thing about all of these positions, with special emphasis on Netflix, is that they are down. Netflix in particular is down by nearly 50%, making his buy questionable. Since then, he has sold its 3.1 million Netflix shares, resulting in about a 400 million dollar loss on the investment.
Let's be honest with each other. The reality is that this year promises to be everything we don't want it to be. The stock market slump could turn into a recession at any time, which no one wants. Ackman has tried to ring the bells, but you can only scream wolf so many times before you get tired of it. What is clear is that you must protect your portfolio. I hope that by reviewing the activity in Ackman's portfolio, you can gain insight into how to better protect yourself in the face of uncertainties. If you gain insight into how to better protect yourself in the face of uncertainties by reviewing the activity in Ackman's portfolio, don't forget to like this video and subscribe to Business Mob for more business news and finance content.
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