저자: DanIves · 외국인
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2022년 7월 TipRanks 인터뷰. 전기차 시장 성장과 테슬라에 대한 강세 견해를 유지하면서, 현재 시장은 위험회피 국면이라 고평가된 성장주(디스럽티브 테크)는 어렵다고 진단. 전기차 전환: 미국 전기차 침투율 약 3%, 중국·유럽은 두 자릿수, 향후 2025년경 20% 이상으로 확대될 것으로 전망. 포드(F-150 라이트닝)와 GM에 대해 강세 논리 유지. 공급망·반도체 리스크: 칩 부족이 전기차 수요 회복을 제약하며, 수요 둔화·경기침체 시 고가 차량 수요에도 영향 가능성 언급. 충전 인프라: 테슬라 슈퍼차저의 경쟁 우위는 크지만 미국 충전 인프라 부족이 소비자 전환 장벽. 정부 투자(충전소 50만 개 목표) 필요성 언급. 성장주 밸류에이션: 금리 인상·지정학 우려로 위험회피 심화, 적자 기술주에 대한 투자자 선호 약화. 다운그레이드를 여러 차례 단행했으며 도큐사인 등 소프트웨어·사이버보안 쪽으로 포트폴리오 전환 권고. 벤처/비상장 기업: 자금 조달 환경 악화로 좋은 사업모델의 비상장 기업도 생존이 어려울 수 있다고 언급. 리스크: 칩 공급 지연, 경기침체, 금리·지정학 리스크, 고밸류 성장주 조정.
다듬은 글
hey everyone it is julie here with tip ranks welcome to our very first episode of analyze this where we'll be chatting with some of the smartest minds on wall street today we had the opportunity and pleasure of talking with daniel ives a managing director and senior equity research analyst at wedbush we'll be chatting about current market conditions the disruptive tech sector including tesla and dan's advice to investors so let's check it out i i still think there's a four-digit stock yeah absolutely and i mean time and time again they've come up against these headwinds and have continued to impress with their results in numbers and deliveries were a big thing with the shanghai plant being shut down and so we're kind of climbing out of that now so i think a lot of people uh i mean there's a very strong following of tesla obviously so a lot of people feeling optimistic for the future there um on the topic of evs as well going back we had a lot of those stack the new ev companies but we also have the oems the fords the you know general motors that are shifting to electric vehicles too so how do you see that balance playing out will some of these newer companies be able to emerge and survive or will the big traditional companies pivot enough that they'll dominate the markets and i don't view it as like a zero-sum game i mean my view is today okay it's three percent in the u.s you go double digits in china europe you know what's called eight nine percent in terms of the percent of the eb's autos but i think now that eventually will trend toward 20 25 and more as we go into the rest of the decade so i think there's a massive opportunity you know in terms of going after this i do believe ford especially next year f150 i think the whole electrification strategy on the far away i think is ultimately just a bullish strategy in terms of not just a re-ring of stock but but i think ultimately what they could you know what they could do it ford and obviously f150 is kind of the that's the trophy case i mean that that that's really going to be i think what's really going to revolutionize evs especially as we go on the pickup truck side well gm you know everything marion team have done i mean that's a big part of our bullish thesis on gm clearly there's been a lot of hiccups along the way but but i believe that's another one i think detroit is going to play a pivotal role in evs but the pure place too i mean the faradays look at names like neo and china and others like you have 120 automakers globally going after evs it's going to be a big benefit but ultimately like the supply chain issues i mean it's something like no one could have ever foreseen this level pushed out those stories the chip is obviously a queer overhang and i think look that's what makes it so tough for investors to navigate because you're trying to understand okay like on a normalized environment what do numbers look like but yet even names like rivian like you can't get the chips you can't make the cars do you lose demand does demand erode then you start to factor in like a recession okay all of a sudden like a 75 80 000 car looks a lot more expensive absolutely and we're seeing that i mean even in used vehicles and chip makers especially like we're saying supply chain issues now here in the states i know certain companies are hesitant to be getting into big projects here without a little bit more government support and everything as well and that chip demand isn't going away but how much patience do people have to wait for these vehicles so it's a when that's a big issue too you see your point like yeah you go back to like the eevee initiatives hundred thousand charging stations ideally you're gonna get the government funding i was gonna go to five hundred thousand ideally by the end of the decade it's a carrot in the stick right i mean and that's the issue because tess obviously has supercharged networks huge competitive advantage but it comes down like if i'm driving from here to from new york to pittsburgh okay where am i charging my car oh you know so that that's like that's a big issue in terms of just i think for a lot i'll call it fencing customers do they go eva you know especially when they're paying you know 480 490 and gas yeah or but then what's the roi right in other words like you know the price points need to be to point where they're affordable and we're seeing tesla have an increase prices too on a lot of models this past year and doing so a couple times so finding that sweet spot where you said the roi and that investment into ev pays off for them it's a balance and i i did hear i couldn't tell you the exact number but an interesting statistic about people that body these but necessarily didn't stay with them because the infrastructure isn't quite there yet for it to be as convenient for the charging and traveling as as one would expect but um obviously years to come and it will continue to be invested in but probably still a bit off from the massive adoption phase quite yet when i think to to that point like the problem now is like in a risk-off market investors are not willing to look out safety and i think that's really like what's happened is that a year ago it it's about like okay like what's the total justin mark opportunity disruptive tech like where could this go you like investors did they want to just be playing these trends and now a year later i was like federation upgrades risk off geopolitical concerns now if it's not like risk profiles dramatically change so that's why like okay stocks traded x times revs are they profitable no they're not going to be profitable for the next five six sh okay i don't want to earn those so that's why you've seen them the business models in this market you know almost basically category five storm and and because they don't have valuation support and i think that's been what's been so difficult not just for investors by even i think a lot of the managing teams absolutely i mean when we talk about disruptive tech too one of the big names that comes to mind is kathy wood and her whole approach to very disruptive technologies and during covid 2021 i mean she was untouchable things were going fantastic and she always reiterated that it's a five-year time frame we're looking long-term for these companies and now in the shorter term we're seeing a lot of decline when you're looking at some of these disruptive tech companies is that five-year time frame similar like how far out are we looking for that profitability yeah i mean we've probably been a little more strict i guess in our like i mean we've downgraded a ton of stocks the last six months because look i think you have to it's relative to it to this environment profitless tech pull forward that's why i like docusign and that was one of our top names during the pandemic and then over the last year you know continue to downgrade that stock just because the environments change so you could look out disruptive tech gotta it's like you gotta understand multiples that investors are going to pay in this market and that's why like for us you're more and more pivoting our clients the software the cyber security in terms of ways to navigate the market now another kind of a side note i suppose but i did see that you mentor a lot of up-and-coming tech companies and such like that i'd love to hear a bit more about that and what kind of insight gives you to some of these up and coming companies and what's really sparking your interest there yeah and i don't look i mean i i spent a lot of time the vc community private companies i think part of it is that you know when when you've been in the public markets for decades it gives you you've seen the mass of success stories but also the failures and i think especially with entrepreneurs i think when you're building businesses i i do think it's so important to have great backers you know from from early and that whether it's sea investing with abc rounds and i think that's something where i've seen so many companies that have phenomenal business models but they just never could scout and ultimately they either had to sell or you know ultimately shut down the business so i think it's also in in this environment is trying to you know just navigate i think for a lot of these private companies just trying to navigate this type of environment because i think that continues to be the bumpy path right like in other words for public companies that have so much cash and have access to funding okay it's a total different situation when they're also generating significant free cash a lot of these companies like they're trying to build businesses especially disruptive tech at a time that investors just don't have the appetite that they had 6 9 12 18 months you
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