저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 2022년 하반기 기술주는 밸류에이션 압축과 경기침체 우려 속에서 옥석 가리기 국면이며, 사이버보안·소프트웨어·애플·마이크로소프트 등 펀더멘털 강한 종목을 선별하는 전략이 유효하다는 주장이다. 시장 환경: 2022년은 매우 힘든 해이며 2008~09년 및 2001년과 유사한 측면이 있다고 평가. 코로나 기간 기술주 수요가 크게 앞당겨졌고 성장률이 정상화되면서 경기침체 신호가 보이며 멀티플이 압축되었다고 진단. 기술주 구분: 모든 기술주를 한 묶음으로 보면 안 되고 양극화(bifurcation)가 진행 중이라고 봄. 12~18개월 리스크·리워드 기준으로 종목을 선택하는 접근. 투자자 조언: 특히 실적 발표(어닝) 시즌이 중요하며, 전반적으로 추정치가 하향될 수 있으나 과도하게 나쁘지는 않을 것으로 봄. 일부 종목은 기관 매수 부재로 추정치가 바닥을 형성할 수 있다는 관점. 2023년 실적 추정치 확인이 중요. 혼란 속 기회(Carnage 속 기회) 강조. 디스럽티브 테크: 과열(froth)은 빠지고 있으며 일부 기업은 생존하지 못할 것. 위성·우주·빅데이터·전기차 플릿 등 성장 펀더멘털이 있는 기업(Planet Labs, Exos 등 예시)을 구분해야 한다고 언급. 사이버보안 전망: 위협 수준 증가 및 클라우드 전환율이 약 40%에 불과해 성장 여력이 크다고 평가. Zscaler, Fortinet, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike 등 언급. 사이버보안 분야 M&A 증가 전망(추가 거래 가능성 및 사모펀드·전략적 인수자 관심 언급). 테슬라(TSLA): 초기 강세론자였던 점 언급. 자동차사가 아닌 소프트웨어 생태계 중심의 디스럽티브 기술기업으로 봄. 코로나 봉쇄로 4~5월 실적 영향으로 목표가를 1400달러에서 1000달러로 낮췄으나, 6월 분기 인도량 이후 2023년을 바라보는 시장 흐름 전환 기대. 2023년 인도 목표 200만 대를 기준으로 여전히 4자리 주가(1000달러 이상) 가능성 주장. 리스크: 추가 실적 하향, 경기침체 심화, 멀티플 추가 압축 가능성, 기관의 기술주 매수 지연. 출연자 전망 요약: 2022년 하반기 기술주 바닥 형성 가능성과 2023년 회복 기대는 있으나, 종목별 선별이 필수라는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey everyone it is Julie here with tip Braggs Welcome to our very first episode of analyze this where we'll be chatting with some of the smartest Minds on Wall Street today we have the opportunity and pleasure of talking with Daniel Ives a managing director and Senior equity research analyst at wedbush we'll be chatting about current market conditions the disruptive Tech sector including Tesla and Dan's advice to investors so let's check it out thank you perfect well Dan thank you so much for joining me today uh I really appreciate you chatting with us you are well known in the industry and a five-star analyst on tip ranks so we always love getting Insight from experts like you now I know you've been working with wed Bush for a few years now but have a couple decades of experience in the industry so I would just love to hear a bit of your background and what led you to your current position yeah I mean we're good covering tech stocks really since the.com bubble and burst I mean my passion's always really been in the technology industry and you know ultimately in terms of covering stocks start off cyber security software and then ultimately transition to this disruptive Tech apple and broader Tech I mean my view especially being the analyst on Wall Street I think you have to have the passion for the stocks you cover because I think if you don't I I think you lose something and I think you know we we just truly enjoy hand-holding investors especially look I mean through apps but obviously what we're going through now in terms of the downs and it's you know it's definitely a roller coaster ride but I think you know ultimately with sound fundamental analysis and trying to pick the winners because I think that's the best way to navigate especially periods like this absolutely and that kind of ties us into our next question with market conditions the last few years have been quite unique with covid and now 2022 has been rough to say the least a lot of red has that changed how you've approached your analyzing of stocks at all yeah I mean look it's it's been a brutal year you know to to date and in a lot of ways like reminds me of 0809 I mean maybe some semblance in in terms of parallels to maybe 2001 you know when I saw back then 2000 so just in terms of risk being basically thrown out the window you know regardless of Christ and I mean my view is that okay clearly you had a massive pull forward during covet in terms of tech stocks growth is starting normalized you clearly have you know it looks like some sort of recession on the way and I think you're seeing multiples compressed significant books our view is that you cannot necessarily put them all into the same group I think it's a bifurcation attack and there's names and Enterprise specifically software cyber security some of the stores things like apple Microsoft if you're willing to navigate the storm I think these are stocks that are significant you know what I do is risk rewards relative to the next 12 18 months I mean and that's our view in terms of how we sort of navigate this period absolutely that would kind of tie in as well you know what advice you would give investors for this upcoming year and how to navigate these markets I think it's especially going to Gene earnings I think Gene earnings you know you clearly could see numbers lowered across the board but but I don't necessarily be that as bad and I think there's something that is maybe queering in the decks in terms of you know I think some of these stocks need to I almost caught in terms of numbers coming down because I think a lot of institutional investors won't buy tech stocks so they feel like that numbers of sort of bottom I think it's also really starting to look at 2023 numbers but that's why I go back to like the stress test sectors in software and cyber security store it's like apple Microsoft among others you know I think these ones it's very easy just to yell fire in a crowd theater but I think there's opportunities in the Carnage absolutely and you did mention disruptive tech companies too and especially during covet we saw some of these companies come out of the bang we had a lot of spacks even with some of these startups and they were on a tear and have now come crashing down quite a bit these higher growth newer tech companies you know how do you think they'll survive this coming year what's going to make those standouts really flourish in the coming years versus the ones that won't make it yeah I mean look the froth is clearly going to come off and it already has I mean some won't survive and I think we've already seen that but but it goes back like you can't just paint every company with the same brush man I know it's companies like let's just talk about some like disruptive Tech names where basically I think investors have just you know must disregarded in terms of the fundamental growth names like Planet labs exos Ouija I mean Ouija disruptive in terms of you know the automotive industry plan in terms of space technology in terms of satellite perspective what's happening on the big data menu look at exos commercial EV player that's not going away more and more conversion to fleets you know FedEx and others as they sort of go down that path so just a good example that you know as we kind of go through this bifurcation of tech and risk off you can't put every company in the same bucket and that's why I think you just have to identify the winners and then we just sort of navigate this period sure within your sector then are there a few that you would deem potential winners or certain ones that you're most excited about I think specifically cyber security I mean that's the one I kind of put an asterisk around just given what we see on the levels of threats the shift to clouds still only 40 percent have moved to the cloud to where we are today and there's names like I look at names like cyborg Fortinet pal Alto z-scour in terms of another name that protects the cloud and of course crowdstrike as well and I mean I also think of cyber security is going to be M A and I think we've seen that Sal point you know among others saw a proof point and some other deals out there but I think it's just tip of the iceberg in terms of M A strategics as well as financials potentially going after you know cyber deals with a lot a lot of dry patterns High lines Sharia and a lot of M A targets lately especially with how the Market's been as well now shifting over more to the electric vehicle world uh I can't chat with you without talking about Tesla you were one of the earlier bowls I know you've been covering them for several years and I know we downgraded price targets slightly back in May from the 1400 to 1000 but what I've always loved on Tesla watching it on tip ranks is how divided analysts are on this stock we have people with price targets down in sixty dollars we have high-end price Targets near 1600 the Gap is always immense so I would love to kind of back up and just hear what in the early days kind of really attracted you to Tesla and then moving forward how you see them emerging from this next year and what's ahead I think if you go back a decade ago and Tesla you know there's one of the early Believers and there's many that thought they'd never be able to get the Scout because I think for any automaker outside the likes of course of a GM of Florida VW established I think many of you like the business model was upside down and musk was not going to be able to ultimately profitably get there and that's essentially what's happened to where we are today I think like no one including myself could have ever anticipated it was going to be a a global phenomenon like it is today I think a lot of that is related to musk the brand obviously the major shift to EVS and I think you know our view has always been it it's not an auto company it's a disruptive technology player now you know but then going to that point part of why it's such an emotional bull bear story because many of us will just compare it to Toyota or traditional auto companies and they just don't understand it but again that's what makes a market I mean my view is that it's it's it's the software ecosystem that has the alternate Navigator if you look at the gross margin profile you look at their you know would I be the profitability ramp you know especially over the coming years I think that's look I think that's really what separates Tesla and from a price Target perspective and we've had a lower because of zero covet I mean basically April and May was shut down months but but I believe as we go into deliveries in June quarter Street starts to look on to the other side that's looking 2023 I still think 2 million is the bogey going 2023 and then that happens I I still think there's a four digit stock you can catch part two of this interview here on YouTube next week or watch the full interview now available on tip ranks TV follow the link 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