저자: DanIves · 외국인
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팔란티어 Q4 실적 발표(2/5) 앞두고 진행자가 리테일 질문을 검토하고, Dan Ives가 출연해 부트캠프 전환율 중심으로 본 팔란티어 실적 관전포인트를 논의. Ives는 가이던스가 20~25% 성장 범위 내면 괜찮고, AIP 부트캠프에서 고객 전환이 확인되는 게 핵심이라고 봄. 정부 매출(43%)과 국제 방산 수요, 주가 우상향 전망이 주요 관심사.
다듬은 글
hey everybody welcome back to the channel we are back with another episode of daily paler and on today's show we're going to be discussing two main things because in 5 days February 5th we've got paler Q4 earnings on this channel I will be live and it's going to be exciting couple hours discussing what the future is for a paler today we're going to be going through retail shareholder questions questions that have been asked by retail some of these questions are good some of these questions are not that good but I want to give my perspective my thoughts on what questions I would like to get answered and what real like things I would like to know that I think honestly all retail and institutional investors would really want to know in order to make sure their investment thesis is intact for a pounder and then second uh last thing I'm just going to play at the end of this episode I had Dan IES who was nice enough to join me on my channel yesterday he talked about his pter Q4 earnings preview and there's one main thing he cares about and that is customer count and from his perspective given he's been on the ground talking with a lot of these clients that have been going to these boot camps he thinks boot camps are scaling really well so at the end of this episode we'll play that clip and you guys will get to see his thoughts don't go anywhere pound your earnings five days let's get into it all right so let's talk about the core question so this is on Robin Hood if you go to Robin Hood uh this is a this is a technology company they acquired called say Technologies and you can basically filter through any company that allows retail questions and there's recommended top voted most shares newest we're going to do top voted first and just see what are like the five to six core top questions that retail is asking in the context of P tier and things that uh things that they are trying to know so um first one let's discuss right here what is the expected growth percentage of 2024 now they're going to answer this this is a very important question 728 votes so makes sense that it's uh that it's a question that people ask but obviously they're going to answer this question this is just going to come with guidance so we'll see what they say on that question but obviously growth percentage in my perspective if it's not at at least above 20% the Stock's going to be tough to move higher if it's at 20% I think that's at least reasonable 22% is nice 25% I think the stock actually makes a move higher because you know you know the Street's like wait a second this company's growing again and right now we're at 177% year your growth it's going to be I mean look dude that's the number that I get goosebumps on like when I see that press release that's the only number I really want to see I don't care about Revenue I don't care about EPS I i' like at the end of the day that number is the number and if we get a good number there then things are going to go good if we don't things might not be the best uh rashab says what is the short-term and long-term road map for paler that's not the best question in my opinion because you know management they've been pretty clear about what their long-term vision is so that's I'm surprised I got 525 votes it's a much more generic question but maybe some retail investors just want some generic answers about what's going on with pter i as a retail investor and I'm sure people that watch this channel want a little bit more specifics and what we want to know from pal Patrick says any insight on when we can expect SP S&P 500 inclusion this is probably going to happen by mid 2024 uh pter really can't comment on that I don't think they even know exactly it's really dependent on the committee and when they decide to allow a company in now if you're available to get a contract then you will get a if you're available to get included in the S&P you will be included in the S&P as long as you made all the meet all the requirements and poun obviously meets all the requirements gap profitability for four consecutive quarters was the big one so that's done we have to be above a 12 billion market cap you have to have a certain volume of your shares all of that is good to go it's just a question for the committee to come together they weren't going to get recommended in December when Uber and Lululemon much more bigger companies were on the list so it will be pter time definitely 2024 in my opinion probably mid 2024 and we'll see when that happens then and management has also talked about S&P 500 inclusion right so they haven't shied away from this question I just don't think they would be able to give it an exact answer on when would happen all right Shri NASA says when will pter start paying dividends this is a bad question in my opinion poun is a Growth Company the growth rate needs to be justifying the valuation which is not right now so hopefully that guidance on the growth is very good but paler should not pay a dividend in my opinion because a dividend would mean that they're taking money from their operations from their cash reserves and they're giving it to shareholders and the way they should do that is by getting the stock to go up because they're growing and so if you buy at 15 and it goes to 30 maybe 100 right one day uh you will make a lot of money on those shares you'll be able to sell those shares to the market because they will be worth much more than what you paid for them but if you're getting a dividend of 2 to 3% every quarter it's not going to be able to grow at the level it needs to grow pounder is a company that needs to be reinvesting every single dollar they make back into the business establishing a moat you got Ted marber yesterday on the pounder daily episode I talked about who's incredibly static about boot camps I mean to the point where he was kind of teasing other SAS companies about getting the water it's wet when it comes to these boot camps and like how they're going to Market with software so uh the Dividends are not in the I the dividend is not going to happen in my opinion and they shouldn't happen because pound should be growing Carlos G says what are your key R&D opportunities in the future how do you expect these Innovations to contribute to your core business and open New Market opportunities this to me is basically what new products are you working on I mean we saw the mixed reality stuff we know they had AIP and that's obviously scaling and doing well but pter is an Innovative company it's a company that's not acquired company since 2016 you got snowflake acquiring poor companies last year right paler innovates internally I mean AIP came out of basically two months of work once Chachi went mainstream I they were the first to actually bring something like that to Market and then they had two whole conferences on AIP so in my opinion I definitely feel pter is working on some new stuff stuff they haven't showed us I mean that mixed reality set was like you know something we didn't expect Sky kit last year was something we didn't expect so they're definitely working on something I I I would imagine they are question is when they're going to expose that stuff and when is the right time to bring it to Market and so I would definitely like to get a little bit of a preview of just like hey what are you working on what is your mind on what is the company thinking about in terms of new avenues for Revenue fed start in June they didn't make it like the biggest deal but that that was a new product offering that they kind of came out of nowhere so it' be really interesting to see what opportunities they're thinking of as well Benjamin says a stock buyback has already been approved what factors are under consideration for when or at what price the buyback will be initiated um I don't think they should do a buyback at all uh I think the stock is a bit expensive right now given the growth and I think that eventually the stock will be cheap but I don't think the stock should be getting bought back right now now if they increase the growth rate to like 25 30% and the stock goes to 22 $23 and we sustain those levels for six seven months and we've capitulated within a range where we're not going from 16 to 21 then to 17 to 18 which we've basically been going back I mean if you've been trading pound over the past you know a couple mons you probably made some money just on the upside or the downside but we need to be at a certain range I think BuyBacks will create a Flor to the stock when they're done and I don't think pter is ready to give a floor to their stock yet because theoretically their stock could fall back down to 12 13 bucks with a bad macro and a bad quarter that could very well happen right now it would be tough because there would be a lot of people waiting to buy the dip but it is possible and I think paler is like well if that's possible you know why would we buy back our stock right now like there's just no point if we could get it back cheaper now granted if you think the stock is undervalued at 15 or 16 then it makes sense to do the buyback but the only way it's undervalued is if the growth is there because then the growth is going to justify that 15 or 16 is cheap given the Stock's fair value should be 20 to 25 I don't think pter has Clarity on that yet I personally do not think they've done a buyback uh I would be very surprised if they uh put in some of the money in the past quarter to do BuyBacks we'll know by the by by February 5ifth but I don't think they've done that I think they've authorized it to give shareholders the Comfort to know that they do have the ability to do that but they're not going to do it yet the other reason is we need net interest income remember we have 3 billion in short-term treasuries that's going to be generating us 40 to 50 million bucks in terms of net income which will increase to gap which will help us with gap profitability income from operations should still be substantial enough to make us profitable but I want to get to $100 million of profit this quarter last quarter we had 70 million it would be really nice to have 100 million profit quarter and maybe guide for like you know 400 to $600 million of pure net income next year I mean that would be amazing that would help EPS go up and to do that as long as the FED keeps rates High you need to get some of that juicy net income and if you can have 3 billion cash that's allowing you to do that why wouldn't you so to me I don't think the BuyBacks make sense yet uh Phil says pter Executives have been offloading stock for years 69% of pter stock is owned by retail investors only 10% is held by insiders why should be good why should we feel good about the future pound here this is a question that they're not going to answer because it's about um uh stock sales but it's a question I personally wish they would answer as well look at the end of the day pound your DPed for a reason they were a company that had 20 years of progress and employees needed liquidity and the only way to get liquidity is by offloading your shares to other people that are willing to pay for them so if you bought it at 10 billion at $10 and you paid you know $20 billion in terms of market cap for it roughly 20 billion uh someone might have got their shares at1 or $2 and they made a decent amount of money because they gave up you know 10 15 years of their life to paler insiders like Peter teal uh sold at 2185 carp sold at 2185 sham sold at 2185 obviously in my opinion and you have to be very objective here we can't be like the Tesla Community that's like oh 20 million cars in two years like no no no like we got to be a little objective I'm a Tesla shareholder as well no Digs at them but pound to $21.85 was ridiculously overvalued given the growth and management knew that that's why they sold then and not you know before they sold at that price and they sold aggressively at that price for a reason this question to me though it it's it doesn't get into the it doesn't take into account what's actually going on with pounder at the end of the day this is an AI story this is a story of a generational company in my opinion and this is a company that is having all of its hands in every geopolitical crisis that happens I don't think you need to have you know 80% of insiders holding the stock and things of that nature it's one of those companies where it's been around for 20 years people wanted liquidity they got rid of liquidity and you got the two biggest people carp and teal that's still owned collectively I think it's 5 to 7% of the company they own a lot of shares I mean just carp alone I think owns around 60 million shares Peter teal somewhere in around 40 50 million I mean they own shares right so it's not a question of them not owning shares it's a question of what I think the heart of this question is why did you guys sell over over the past year and outside of the scheduled sales that they they might have had it's because they wanted to make some money I mean like it's just that simple and when you've been at the company for 20 years and someone else thinks you know that hasn't been at the company for 20 years that didn't build the company but that wants to invest in the company if they're willing to pay a certain price and you're willing to take some off the table and give it to that person that doesn't mean you're bearish about the company especially when you still own millions of shares it just means that you're willing to give someone else the opportunity to participate and take some profits for yourself on top of that you know karp has been very honest about the fact that he eats sleeps and breathes paler right and we understand that selling 500,000 shares at 2185 because you know it's overvalued right now to me is not being against pter it's more so just like hey I know my company my company's overvalued right now if anything that's a signal to retail saying hey it's bit overvalued if I'm selling then every you know like we understand that there will be a world in which pter hits 30 bucks one day and carp will not sell and a lot of people will not sell because the inflection point in terms of growth will be massive and there will not be a reason to sell same thing with Nvidia CEO and shareholders I mean Nvidia CEO I think he's offloaded like a couple hundred million doll worth of shares in the past couple of months same thing with zux unloaded I think like $600 million of shares now his stocks at alltime high is at 400 bucks zux was not you know doing that a while ago he did that because he felt it got overvalued I'm assuming he thinks it's overvalued uh and and overvalued doesn't mean something negative overvalue just means like look the stocks run up a lot I want to take some some off the table I still own a lot of shares and that's exactly what carp and management did as well so to me uh them selling is not a big deal at all every company has CEOs that sell and insiders that sell the question becomes if the company is not growing I mean Nvidia has 4X you know meta has almost 5x if the company's not growing and then you're selling that's a red flag because then it's like well you're just selling and dumping it on people that are buying a company that's not growing and the biggest criticism I have right now pounder is that the growth is not good that growth changes Insider sales really don't matter because as long as the company keeps growing the stock will keep appreciating and other people will own the shares even if it's not just insiders you can't expect them to hold every single share forever because at the end of the day this is a company and they do need to take profits just like you and I might take some profits at 20 bucks and 30 bucks and 40 bucks and give it to someone who's willing to pay 40 bucks when we paid five bucks for it for six bucks okay let's go to one other one that I liked and the newest question this is the last one we'll do uh Jesse says how are the EU countries in NATO responding to carpet's call for increased spending on software that actually works I like that he said carpeto shout out to uh Arie on that name uh this is a big one look I think and this is my biggest Takeaway on Pounders Q4 earnings call what I want to hear the government business what's going on in the government where do you see it kering do you actually think there's massive competition in the US government space do you feel that government growth is going to slow down NATO countries saw what happened with Ukraine saw what happened with uh Israel are they upping their spend and can you give us a little bit more guidance on what's going on with international government revenue and US government revenue I'm not that worried about AIP and customer account and all that stuff because they're going to talk about during the call like that like that's not even a question for me because that's the thesis of their company right now they're going to talk about that they're going to go through the numbers I think it's going to be very well detailed all that stuff I want to know 43% of your business's revenue is government what's happening in the government sector like can you give us a little bit more clarity are you and and you got to be honest here even if it's bad news I want to hear it like are you making progress with getting the Estonia and the finlands and the polands of the world to pay you guys money for defense are they buying Gotham or not so this is something I would really want to know I think NATO coach said this on the channel as well as A1 billion Market opportunity for paler this is the time where I would imagine these companies are or these countries are stepping up their defense spending on you know contributing to paler or like something like a pounder and so I wouldn't want to get a little bit more clarity internationally what's going on in the government scene and then domestically is there actually competition with these open source vendors or are you guys on the right track of doing what you need to do to be able to maintain your Edge in the commercial space and in the government space for the us all right last thing I'm going to play on this episode of daily pounder Dan IES was nice enough to come on the channel yesterday he talked about paler his thoughts how he thinks about boot camps what's going on I think he had some really awesome insights so check it out this is Dan Ives thank you everybody for watching and I'll see you tomorrow on another episode of daily paler paler we got earnings in six days that that's my Super Bowl you know I know we got the Chiefs coming up but that's that's my big one uh are what do you think that for me it's it's singular to me if they don't have guidance above about 20 to 25% Stock's going to be in a tough situation since the valuation is a little tough given the growth hasn't been there how do you feel they're going to report do you think they're going to be exciting carp's been going around you know been very excited on all these conference calls that he's attending any thoughts on paler yeah I mean I I get what you're saying from a guy's perspect but I think the most important thing is almost forget like xover pinpointing what Enterprise conversions look like to AIP I see I actually think going in I'm less focused on guidance of course as long as it's within the bracket right but I'm more focused on numbers starting to support what the conversions look like toward AIP do you think I mean I I know you've worked with their team a little bit do you think that boot camp model that they're doing where they go to customers they show them the product for a couple days home run why why do you say that because first of all they they're very well aware of like there were certainly perceptions of paler right so like they they owned it like they they understood like oh pal I you I've heard different mixed thing so the boot camp it it tears that down and they see the product like pal Ander especially in bake offs a lot of these larger bigger deals in the Enterprise but when they start to get embed within the it departments and within a lot of companies like right there's huge ground swells within paler some more than others but it's so important that you preach the gospel type in these types of especially when you're trying to basically like push a whole new platform that's so for you it's less about guidance as long as we're in that 20 to 25% range you want to see the conversion on the boot camps to clients that signed up for AIP that's tells you everything so let's compar it to Microsoft let's say Microsoft got into is like there's weaker PC right again more focused on the cappuccino tomorrow let's say gaming care less all anyone's Focus it's it's l the it's Cloud as conversions on cop pounder same let say let's say was the upper end the guidance because of government deals right that and then let's say conversion it was a little more like cautious around like AIP and the ram numbers would go up stock would go down right because it's the because again for government it's a low multiple business you're not paying for that and in the context of what you've seen with the semis and the GPU demand from theid of the world does that also kind of signal to you that if the gpus have this much demand the software is going to have some demand as well there that there I mean use cases they're front and center yeah and that's why like I mean I have so many know in a lot of our checks and what we do I mean they there's a lot of companies where maybe a year ago two years ago they'd be like no way would paler be fronted and now they are right right all right quick little rapid fire for you Google are you excited about them or you think that uh they're gonna not I think that could be from like a MAG seven whatever mag six um I I think there's huge upside there because of the cloud piece digital ads look strong you're not afraid that search is dying because of chat TBT that's not something I think that's because there somebody saying with them you have the most AI engineers in the world that are at Al you start to narrow the Gap what's happening on the hyperscale side it's hu I that's that's a big upside area
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