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stock market documentary channel presence in forty percent and that would seem to me to be conservative so we'll see in six months time who is right well mr. father is back with us today live today from Boston mark welcome back to the program nice to have you on the halftime right are you so thank you stocks obviously fell for a period of time until the this so you know februari eleventh bottom they didn't fall quite as dramatically as you thought they would are you surprised that they managed to come back in the manner that they did from februari eleventh well not really because we have a lot of money printing all around the world and I think the markets are to a large extent manipulated by central banks not necessarily only the Federal Reserve but also the ECB and the Bank of Japan and servers so stocks are kept artificially high but as an aside I just wanted to mention that the Russell 2000 which had peaked out in jun 2015 at the februari low was down twenty-seven percent and I BBD biotech ETF is even now down thirty percent from its peak so actually a lot of stocks have gone down substantially but a few shares like Amazon have actually kept the indices at the relatively high level and what also happened is that gold shares mining stock started to rebound last December and especially oil stocks office january-february of this year and the oil stock increase also supported the market so what's gonna happen now where does the stuff yeah from here with the backdrop now now that we're six months from your left appearance on this program okay you say sent you know central banks have sort of juice the markets we get it now we're starting to think about the fact that there taking their foot off the gas even further they may hike that the Fed may hike in June it may hike in July does that mean for the stock market well I basically think that the market is fully valued if you look at price to sales price to earnings and the worst and if you especially look at the global economy which is deteriorating the outlook it's not improving and even you just talked about auto sales in the US the US economy is basically flat at best and some sectors actually declining you look at retailing it's not doing well and it's not just because of Amazon it's because of many other factors the average American doesn't have much money left after paying for Obamacare and for rising rents and rising food prices and the wars and so on so i think the global economy is not doing well earnings will be still under pressure and what is interesting if you look at the bond market the bungalow market has been holding up reasonably steady sings actually january indicating that the bond market doesn't believe in a very strong economy so what will happen now I don't know for sure but I think stocks also given the candidates we have us for the next presidency given that I think that stocks are still very vulnerable to what kind of a pullback do you think well as I said and I've said this for a long time May twenty-fourth 2015 S&P 2134 was essentially an important high point can we exceed it somewhat possible with just a handful of stock still being strong the I would rather focus on groups I would look at gold shares some gold stocks which we recommended by the way such as American barrick they were below six dollars last september-october they went to nineteen dollars now have to pull back we need a correction to around save for Barrick around twelve thirteen dollars buzzing some of these stocks still have a huge upside potential as well as the prize of platinum gold silver and I also believe that oil servicing stocks that became extremely depressed 36 months ago are now in a bottoming out face and that thereafter there will be some decent price gains what what up upsets your view what you could say stocks are vulnerable up to a decent-sized pull back what what causes you to be wrong well I think that if you print money say if QE 4 comes or if helicopter money comes which is not unlikely eventually not maybe right away in an election year but it's likely to happen in future if these things happen in nominal terms stocks could go up but I just like to emphasize that in my view something very interesting is happening right now or over the last few months the money printing now seems to be lifting the rate of price increases quite dramatically you look at rennes you look at health insurance premiums and suppose so i think the cost of living is going up so maybe stocks go up in nominal terms but in real terms they'll go down and i would rather have a large position in precious metals and in selected commodities I think you look at the price of soybeans up twenty-five percent since March a lot of these agricultural commodities are very attractive and if I look around the world at the sector's food stocks are performing well and I think there'll be a much more consolidation among food companies in emerging economies so that's the sector i like i like also commodity producers such as Vietnam and selected companies in Thailand talent is essentially an agricultural country last question what's the biggest personal investment you have right now well the biggest personal investments were in Vietnam in a hotel and in real estate and then the second biggest position is basically as a singular position yep is in gold and in Treasury bonds I have a lot of fixed-income securities and you know people say I'm always perish but about twenty-five percent of my assets are in equities so I am actually quite engaged in the equity markets and I have to say to my pleasure surprisingly to me my equity portfolios all of them are up between eight percent this year and thirteen percent in the first few months of this year because i had positions in the right stocks in thailand and in vietnam and I guess my was my last question but I just thought of another one when you said Treasuries you you you you think Treasuries are attractive I mean some people say the Treasuries are more expensive than stocks that is the view of some people which may be true but I look at Treasuries as an alternative to cash I prefer to own Treasuries than cash I look at Treasuries compared to say German booms Japanese JGBs that have a negative view I'm Swiss I look at ten years yields on Swiss government bonds compared to these other government bonds around the world US Treasuries are very attractive actually very attractive unless you have a very bearish view about the US dollar which eventually the dollar will collapse one day but maybe not against other currencies I appreciate the time very much always enjoy the bank's my pleasure thank you for watching please subscribe to our channel stock market documentary channel presented you
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