저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 미국 증시 급락의 원인은 중국이 아니라 연준의 과잉 유동성으로 만든 거품이며, 연준의 금리 인상 위협은 블러핑이 아니라 실제 인상 시 경기침체를 넘어 금융위기 재개가 우려된다는 Schiff의 주장. [증시 하락 원인] Dow지수 200포인트 하락으로 장 마감 저점 마감, 내일 전저점 재시험 가능성 언급. 중국 문제가 아니라 미국 내부(연준) 문제라고 주장. [연준과 금리] 연준이 거품을 부풀렸고 0% 금리가 증시를 떠받치는 유일한 요인. 금리 인상 공포가 달러를 떠받치고 신흥국과 원자재를 짓누르는 구조. [Mark Weiss 반론] 미국 GDP는 금융위기 이전 정점보다 약 8.5% 높은 수준이나 중국(80%+)·유럽에 비해 회복이 약함. 연준 정책과 양적완화가 실제 도움이 됐고, 실업률은 10%에서 5.3%로 하락. 다만 재정지출(인프라 투자) 부족으로 300~400만 개 일자리가 부족하다고 주장. [Schiff 재반론] 주식시장은 거품이며 평균 미국인은 회복 시작 때보다 못하다. 실질 성장은 저축·자본투자에서 나오는데 연준이 자원을 월가로 돌리고 있음. 실업률도 노동시장 이탈자를 빼면 과소평가. 정부 축소, 금리 인상, 진짜 경기침체를 거쳐야 진짜 회복이 가능하다고 주장. 유럽 문제는 긴축 부족이 아니라 정부 과다와 통화 과잉 때문이라고 봄. [Weiss 재반론] 유럽은 긴축과 잘못된 정책으로 경기침체가 2년 더 이어져 실업률이 미국의 두 배. 미국은 양적완화와 연준 정책으로 최소한의 성장을 했음. 경기침체를 원하는 건 약물 중독자에게 더 많은 약을 주는 것과 같다고 비판. [Schiff 결론] 현재 경제는 과잉 저금리, 과도한 정부, 과도한 규제, 중앙은행의 거품 생성 문제. 축소된 정부와 건전한 화폐로 돌아가야 한다고 주장. [마무리] 두 패널은 의견 불일치 상태로 종료. 회복이 많은 미국인의 기대에 못 미쳤다는 점에는 합의.
다듬은 글
stock market documentary Channel presents Peter I want to start with you uh we talked a little bit about China right there with Aaron you've said this crash has less to do with with what's going on with stocks in Beijing and more to do with the feds in your words propping up the US economy why well first of all let me update your viewers maybe Aon hasn't checked her quotes but the Dow finished down 200 points uh it was up earlier this morning in a classic re reversal Tuesday or turnaround Tuesday fake out but this market closed on the lows very weak it's going to be a scary day going into tomorrow probably we're going to go back at a minimum retest the lows from yesterday morning when the Dow opened down a th but all this scapegoating about China this is not about China this problem is made in America it's all about the fed the Fed inflated this bubble and now they're threatening to prick it everybody expects the FED to actually raise interest rates I've been saying all along that it's been a bluff that there's no way the FED could raise rates because if they did we'd have another financial crisis not just a recession and a bare Market but we would resume the financial Cris crisis that they in interrupted this Market is all about the fed that's the only thing that's been propping it up and if the FED takes away the 0% interest rates this Market's going to implode and we're right back in recession that is the real story and that is what is hurting markets around the world it's the fear of higher interest rates that's propping up the dollar that's depressing Emerging Markets that's depressing commodity prices this is the problem but nobody believes or realize that the FED is bluffing well Mark do you agree here that the problem is all with the feds Peter sounds pretty bleak uh especially even going into tomorrow's Market what do you have to say no I I don't think the FED is the problem the FED should ever be thinking about raising interest rates the problem is kind of the opposite I think of what Peter sees the problem is that the this has been a very weak recovery for the United States you know we're about 8 and a half% uh our GDP is about 8 and a half% bigger than it was at the peak before the Great Recession which is quite a long time ago very little growth for comparison China's over 80% uh bigger than it was at the peak before the recession Europe is just barely uh caught up with its pre-recession peak so it's the two two biggest economies the Europe an economy and the US economy that are the problem and the European economy is the much worse problem because they've got twice you know in the euros and they have twice the unemployment that that we do because they followed the wrong policies they had a central bank that uh was actually hurting the economy they didn't have a stimulus like we did in fact they did the opposite to the more vulnerable countries so the problem is a lack of aggregate demand that's the big problem in the world the FED has done its part by keeping interest rates this low this long well we really need is more from the rest of the government we need an expansionary fiscal policy we need uh you know infrastructure investment things that will create jobs because we're still down about uh three or 4 million jobs from where we should be right now in spite of the unemployment rate because many people have dropped out of the labor force Peter I I hear you wanting to jump in I have a question that I want to ask you though which is uh do you not agree then here that this has something to do with recovery I mean we talk a lot about the stock market is it indicator of the actual economy aren't most Americans just concerned about employment no no first of all you know the the the the stock market is a bubble the reason we haven't had a real recovery the reason that the average American is worse off today than that he is when the recovery began is because the FED hasn't allowed a recovery this cheap money quantitative easing 0% interest rates is interfering with that recovery real economic growth comes from savings capital investment under consumption none of that has happened happening we're getting a bubble the FED is diverting resources from Main Street to Wall Street the last thing we need is what the other gentleman just said you know our unemployment rate is actually much higher than the government claims because we're not counting all the people that have left the labor force all the people that are working part-time jobs who want to be working in full-time jobs we're not going to turn that around until we turn the government around that means we need a smaller government we need higher interest rates we need to have a real recession in order to have a real recovery now I agree there are s in Europe but those problems are not caused by monetary policy being too tight or by government deficits being too small we have too much government in Europe and we have too much government in America we have too much money printing interest rates are too low what we need is capitalism that's the thing that's what's going to save Europe that's what's going to save America but unfortunately we're going to have to go through a lot more pain before we get a real solution all right Mark uh uh I just what is your response to to what Peter's just outlined here that that uh the feds need to basically raise interest rates in order to rip off the Band-Aid I guess and put us through a little bit of recession yeah well he's the real recession I think that says it all we need a real recession is what he said that's why I think his views are never going to be taken seriously by the majority of people most people care about having a job you know you know Peter has a job doesn't okay so what's your what's your solution then right so we if we raise rates right if you raise rates are go they they they drop right so that's not good for the average American how how can there be a recovery for the average American when we're not just talking about stocks well there has been some recovery that's why it's interesting important to compare Europe with the United States again they have twice the unemployment by the same measure they have twice the unemployment than we do in the Euro Zone okay why is that because uh they did they they made a real recession they had a second recession for 2 years after w law can I can I finish I don't remember interrupting you sorry okay uh they they actually made the economy worse whereas our government didn't do enough okay but they at least did something we had a stimulus and we had the fed's policy and we had quantitative easing uh you know years before the Europeans did it so those things actually help now if Peter wants to complain that too much of the money went into the stock market and that prices are too high okay fine but at least there was growth at least unemployment went from its peak of 10 to 5.3% and again that's not enough because as he mentioned uh you know there's a lot of people who dropped out of the labor force so we are down again three three to four million jobs but the point is he's talking about making it worse having a real recession for what look at Europe no I'm not I'm look let me get a word in here because first of all Europe has always had high unemployment because of their rigid labor laws that's not something new but look I don't want a recession because I enjoy the pain right what what I want is if I see a drug addict I want him to go to rehab you see a drug addict and you want him to take more drugs I recognize that the guy's got to get healthy he needs to go through withdrawal so he can have a healthy life you just want him to feel good you want to give him more drugs I I know what alss this economy it's too much cheap money it's too much government it's too much regulation it's not enough real economic growth and it's too much bubble blowing by the central banks we need to shrink government we need to go back to sound money the tragedy the tragedy of the live show is that uh we always we never really will uh get to wrap up this debate and I guess for now the two of you are going to have to disagree and and we I'm sure as the numbers continue to go all over the place in the markets have to have both of you uh back on and I wish we had more time I really do I guess we can all agree agree uh that the recovery I guess is the bottom line is is what uh hasn't worked out as much as many Americans would hope I think both of you can agree on that at least uh Mark Weiss BR co-director of the center for economic and policy research and Peter Schiff the CEO of europacific capital thank you both thank you for watching please subscribe to our Channel stock market documentary Channel presented
Comments 0