MARC FABER / The Fall of The Dollar and Stocks

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Faber는 중앙은행의 돈 풀기가 주가를 인위적으로 떠받치고 있으며, 밸류에이션(주가매출비율·주가수익비율)이 비싸고 글로벌 경기는 악화 중이라 주식은 상당한 조정 가능성이 있다고 봄. 글로벌 경기와 주식 시장 전망 - 2016년 2월 11일 저점 이후 반등은 중앙은행 유동성 공급 때문이라고 설명. - 러셀2000은 2015년 6월 고점 대비 약 27% 하락했고, 바이오 ETF(IBB)는 고점 대비 약 30% 하락한 상태라고 언급. - 미국 경제는 사실상 횡보, 일부 섹터는 감소. 소매업 부진, 가계의 실질 여유자금 감소(건강보험료·임대료·식료품 가격 상승) 지적. - 채권시장이 강한 경기를 믿지 않는다는 신호로 해석. 주식 조정 전망과 근거 수치 - S&P500은 2015년 5월 24일 2134 부근이 중요한 고점이었다고 평가, 이를 넘기기 어렵다고 봄. - 주식은 상당한 폭의 조정(pullback)에 취약하다고 전망. 다만 조정 폭의 구체적 수치는 명시하지 않음. - 향후 QE4나 헬리콥터 머니가 나오면 명목 주가는 오를 수 있으나 실질로는 하락할 것이라고 봄. 종목·자산별 견해 - 금광 주식: 아메리칸 배릭(ABX)은 작년 9~10월 6달러 이하에서 19달러까지 올랐으므로 12~13달러 부근까지 조정이 필요하다고 언급. 금광주 추가 상승 여력은 있다고 봄. - 금·은·백금 등 귀금속 비중 확대 선호. - 원유 서비스주: 36개월 전 극도로 침체됐고 현재 바닥을 다지는 중이며 의미 있는 가격 상승이 있을 것으로 봄. - 농산물: 대두 가격이 3월 이후 25% 상승, 농산물 전반이 매력적. 식품주는 신흥국에서 강세, 신흥국 식품 기업 통합 가능성 언급. - 상품 생산자: 베트남, 태국 일부 기업 선호. 조건·리스크 - 주식 약세 전망의 반증 조건은 대규모 통화 공급(QE4·헬리콥터 머니)으로, 명목 기준 상승 가능성 언급. - 미국 달러는 장기적으로 붕괴할 수 있으나 당장은 타 통화 대비 약세가 아닐 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 개인 포지션 - 자산의 약 25%가 주식, 금과 미국채 등 채권 비중 높음. 미국채는 현금 대안으로 선호, 독일·일본 국채에는 부정적. 보유 주식 포트폴리오는 올해 8~13% 상승. 베트남 호텔·부동산 투자 비중이 가장 큼.

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01. stock market documentary channel presence in forty percent and that would seem to me to be conservative so we'll see in six months time who is right well mr. father is back with us today live today from Boston mark welcome back to the program nice to have you on the halftime right are you so thank you stocks obviously fell for a period of time until the this so you know februari eleventh bottom they didn't fall quite as dramatically as you thought they would are you surprised that they managed to come back in the manner that they did from februari eleventh well not really because we have a lot of money printing all around the world and I think the markets are to a large extent manipulated by central banks not necessarily only the Federal Reserve but also the ECB and the Bank of Japan and servers so stocks are kept artificially high but as an aside I just wanted to mention that the Russell 2000 which had peaked out in jun 2015 at the februari low was down twenty-seven percent and I BBD biotech ETF is even now down thirty percent from its peak so actually a lot of stocks have gone down substantially but a few shares like Amazon have actually kept the indices at the relatively high level and what also happened is that gold shares mining stock started to rebound last December and especially oil stocks office january-february of this year and the oil stock increase also supported the market so what's gonna happen now where does the stuff yeah from here with the backdrop now now that we're six months from your left appearance on this program okay you say sent you know central banks have sort of juice the markets we get it now we're starting to think about the fact that there taking their foot off the gas even further they may hike that the Fed may hike in June it may hike in July does that mean for the stock market well I basically think that the market is fully valued if you look at price to sales price to earnings and the worst and if you especially look at the global economy which is deteriorating the outlook it's not improving and even you just talked about auto sales in the US the US economy is basically flat at best and some sectors actually declining you look at retailing it's not doing well and it's not just because of Amazon it's because of many other factors the average American doesn't have much money left after paying for Obamacare and for rising rents and rising food prices and the wars and so on so i think the global economy is not doing well earnings will be still under pressure and what is interesting if you look at the bond market the bungalow market has been holding up reasonably steady sings actually january indicating that the bond market doesn't believe in a very strong economy so what will happen now I don't know for sure but I think stocks also given the candidates we have us for the next presidency given that I think that stocks are still very vulnerable to what kind of a pullback do you think well as I said and I've said this for a long time May twenty-fourth 2015 S&P 2134 was essentially an important high point can we exceed it somewhat possible with just a handful of stock still being strong the I would rather focus on groups I would look at gold shares some gold stocks which we recommended by the way such as American barrick they were below six dollars last september-october they went to nineteen dollars now have to pull back we need a correction to around save for Barrick around twelve thirteen dollars buzzing some of these stocks still have a huge upside potential as well as the prize of platinum gold silver and I also believe that oil servicing stocks that became extremely depressed 36 months ago are now in a bottoming out face and that thereafter there will be some decent price gains what what up upsets your view what you could say stocks are vulnerable up to a decent-sized pull back what what causes you to be wrong well I think that if you print money say if QE 4 comes or if helicopter money comes which is not unlikely eventually not maybe right away in an election year but it's likely to happen in future if these things happen in nominal terms stocks could go up but I just like to emphasize that in my view something very interesting is happening right now or over the last few months the money printing now seems to be lifting the rate of price increases quite dramatically you look at rennes you look at health insurance premiums and suppose so i think the cost of living is going up so maybe stocks go up in nominal terms but in real terms they'll go down and i would rather have a large position in precious metals and in selected commodities I think you look at the price of soybeans up twenty-five percent since March a lot of these agricultural commodities are very attractive and if I look around the world at the sector's food stocks are performing well and I think there'll be a much more consolidation among food companies in emerging economies so that's the sector i like i like also commodity producers such as Vietnam and selected companies in Thailand talent is essentially an agricultural country last question what's the biggest personal investment you have right now well the biggest personal investments were in Vietnam in a hotel and in real estate and then the second biggest position is basically as a singular position yep is in gold and in Treasury bonds I have a lot of fixed-income securities and you know people say I'm always perish but about twenty-five percent of my assets are in equities so I am actually quite engaged in the equity markets and I have to say to my pleasure surprisingly to me my equity portfolios all of them are up between eight percent this year and thirteen percent in the first few months of this year because i had positions in the right stocks in thailand and in vietnam and I guess my was my last question but I just thought of another one when you said Treasuries you you you you think Treasuries are attractive I mean some people say the Treasuries are more expensive than stocks that is the view of some people which may be true but I look at Treasuries as an alternative to cash I prefer to own Treasuries than cash I look at Treasuries compared to say German booms Japanese JGBs that have a negative view I'm Swiss I look at ten years yields on Swiss government bonds compared to these other government bonds around the world US Treasuries are very attractive actually very attractive unless you have a very bearish view about the US dollar which eventually the dollar will collapse one day but maybe not against other currencies I appreciate the time very much always enjoy the bank's my pleasure thank you for watching please subscribe to our channel stock market documentary channel presented you