저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 강하지만 지정학·양적긴축(QT)·에너지 공급 문제로 전환점에 있으며, 디몬은 경기침체 가능성을 열어두고 대비를 강조함. 거시 경기: 미국은 세계 최고의 번영을 누리고 있으나 경기침체가 얕을지 깊을지는 불확실하다고 봄. 침체가 오더라도 미국은 괜찮을 것이라는 입장. 지정학·유동성: 우크라이나 전쟁, 석유·가스, 이민, 식량, 중국 무역 등이 전환점의 핵심이며, 양적긴축과 높은 달러·금리가 신흥국에 큰 부담이 될 수 있다고 경고함. 에너지: 유럽 에너지 가격이 미국의 2~5배로 치솟아 고통이 커질 수 있으며, 석유·가스 투자 부족은 2~3년 뒤 공급 차질로 이어질 것이라고 주장. 현재 유가는 중국 둔화와 경기침체 우려로 하락했으나 이 흐름은 반전될 수 있음. 가스 확대는 석탄 대체로 탄소 감축에도 기여한다고 봄. 산업정책: IRA 등 전기차·재생에너지 투자는 중국의 희토류 독점 등 공급망 경쟁과 맞물린 국가안보 정책이며, 유럽이 자체 블록화를 추진하면 글로벌 무역협상에 매우 해롭다고 우려. 미중 관계: 중국과 직접 대화하고 동맹과 함께 기후·테러·핵확산 문제를 해결해야 하며, 미중 경제는 지나치게 얽혀 있어 분리가 쉽지 않다는 입장. 정치·재정: 정부 셧다운은 비효율적이며, 부채한도 문제는 파산 리스크가 커서 조기 해결이 바람직하다고 봄. 정책은 정당보다 합리성이 중요하다고 강조. 주택·소외계층 금융: 모기지 금리 6.5~7%는 접근성을 떨어뜨리지만 주택은 미국인 순자산의 핵심이라 중요함. 규제로 소액 모기지 비용이 상승했다고 지적하며, 미은행 계좌가 없는 계층을 위한 체이스 지점·금융교육·소상공인 지원을 소개.
다듬은 글
Jamie dimon is the CEO of America's largest bank JP Morgan Chase and he's been a pillar of Wall Street for decades we caught up with him a few days ago in Baltimore and among other things we asked him about America's position in a tumultuous global economy this moment we are in feels like a transition point an inflection point and I wonder how you think about where America is at this moment America is the most prosperous Nation the world's ever seen our basic principles of freedom freedom of speech from your religion are unbelievable The Innovation is unparalleled anywhere around the world so start with that it's an amazing position of strength the economy is going through a bunch of things and we don't we don't always really know whether you have a mild recession or hard recession and if it happens we're going to be fine I I feel bad terrible people lose jobs we want to keep it as short as possible I do think you write about a turning point but that turning point is about geopolitics that's about Ukraine oil Russia War migration food National Security China trade that whole bucket of things and I'd put in that category quantitative tightening which is basically reducing liquidity in the banking system of the world that that is actually forget us for a second that it could be very difficult high dollar the dollar going up higher rates and quantitative tightening on smaller countries around the world the World Bank and the MF have been warning about this yes for a while so I'm saying you got to put that whole mix in which to happen in geopolitics Ukraine is a turning point where you know maybe all this illusion that we had that some other worlds of peace and everything can be fine that should have been shattered and therefore we should be thinking about how can America do great the next hundred years what policy should we have when I looked at your last shareholder letter which I know you take a direct role in writing word I write every word well that was April I didn't help but I write every word you um everyone everyone goes through a process and thinking through these things and when you ranked uh some of the things worrying you Ukraine was right up there with all the domestic issues that was right after the war started now we're at a point where some would look and say okay it wasn't the worst case scenario in Europe in terms of severe recession they're finding ways to get oil and gas elsewhere do you think in the same way now as you did then in terms of risk more so really that's a full sense of security that you've had this war going on you know for nine months or whatever and that somehow it's okay oil prices went way up Europe's going to recession migration has been extraordinary you you haven't seen the full effect of food prices around the world if you go to Europe they they would they're taking as much more seriously than Americans are they're on the front line you have those missiles going to Poland you have new you know basically nuclear blackmail I mean it is as serious as you can get so we should all hope it goes away that did some kind of armistice or settlement you know that's good for Ukraine by the way the danger of this war is extraordinary and and it can go on for years but there's oil and gas thing it looks like you know the Europeans will get through it this winter but this oil and gas problem is going to go on for years so I you know if I was a you know in the government or anywhere else I'd say I have to prepare for getting much worse first I hope it doesn't but I would definitely be preparing for it to get much worse what does that look like to you in terms of what should be prepared for on the energy front when the energy front we need secure reliable cheap oil and gas the problem you know a lot of people think the only gas price being high is good for CO2 it's not so cheap reliable you see you're looking at Germany I mean the Europeans are terrified they're they're Energy prices are two three four five times ours which is hurting consumers which the governments have to do something about and it's hurting businesses you know and and and it's just started and so the pain and suffering can get a lot worse so and the other it has the benefit lower prices have the benefit of having more production okay they have the benefit of helping poor Nations lower income individuals uh our allies who are desperate for more secure uh energy and CO2 because quite predictive conditions carbon emissions because quite predictably carbon emissions are going up because Nations rich and poor around the world to turn on back on their coal plants they cannot afford expensive energy and they can't afford no energy so you know to me to solve climb we kind of need all the above permitting plans gas is the best and cleanest way to reduce coal which is the best way to reduce CO2 so it'll be a really thoughtful policy can't be the policy will get us there but it also is military policy Economic Policy including trade so when I say economic I'm talking about you know trade is one thing but economic is investment rights uh so anything that relates to National Security will have to be re check changed President Biden has called it Putin's Price bike but he's also blamed price inflation on corporate profits and I know this irritates you yeah um you've argued energy costs are not high because of price gouging but because of the dramatic decline in investments in energy which results in reduced Supply when demand goes up so if that's true what is it going to take to increase lending uh to companies so they can make those Investments this is a little more complicated now because part of it is the companies don't want to do it why well part of it when people talk about excise profit tax that's one they can't get permits done they can't get Leasing and stuff like that and part of it they're investors are putting a lot of pressure in them you know that I you know to go green to go green but not to invest too much Capital we where you're not making a profit with oil at a at a high price right now it's come down considerably mostly because China slowed down and here it's going to recession and that people think there might be a world recession so the future price of oil is going down those things will reverse and this under investment oil and gas it will hurt you two or three years out that's quite predictable but it's not today and so we have time you know I'm hoping the administration you know they're looking at all these issues I've spoken to John podesta now runs the the uh Ira act about what we can do to accelerate reduce CO2 but have better cheaper more secure energy not just for us but for our particular allies around the world I think we need I've called it Marshall Plan for energy you know and that's got to be all the above and all the people involved but the IRA you referred to the inflation reduction act that's just a sliver of what you're imagining for a marshall yeah no and that's a that is a huge I mean we're still studying every piece of it for Renewables and EVs and and a lot of different things but it's not just that it's the infrastructure we're building it's it's competition around the world it's access to rare Earths I mean when you dig into it it's a really complex thing those are the things the ingredients needed for electric vehicles exactly China has a monopoly on right now they're Monopoly in production not on uh where it is so we have rares in America whether we can produce them here or not because of certain laws and requirements that's a different issue we need to build grids you know we don't get permissions to permits to build build grids so you know one of the deals that was done between the President Joe manchin was the permitting bill that permitting bill is for pipelines we need to get gas to Louisiana to get that Louisiana gas to Europe to help our allies and reduce the cost there that also reduces their coal usage so it's very green if you look at on the margin and so it gets very complicated and we just need to do the work are people here hearing what you're trying to explain in terms of market dynamics and investment so I think it's sometimes justifiable when people totally across each other because damage was done no damage done in the financial crisis not all the big Banks would have failed and not everyone's equally guilty and all that but and then of course things people have simple political slogans that you know get them elected or something but uh I think there's a lot of talk we talk all the time to buy administration at multiple levels and we should and I'm going to help any president to try to do the best job for America and those conversations are pretty intense you had said in this country you were happy about the midterm results on both parties the kind of the the Wingnuts didn't get elected and there so the rational thing when I was just in Congress I was gratified by the the thought they want to make progress and I think they could make progress so so we're days away from this Government funding deadline um and Congress is going to have to pass a bill to avoid a shutdown the risk is once power shifts come January that it could become yeah I would say Government funding look it's not the way it could be used it's not the way to run a railroad I mean basically end up spending much more money too because the American public man I know you pay people and then you pay them more to come back to work it costs us much more money so even if you want to be fiscally responsible it's not a good idea the debt ceiling is you're talking about June of next year and we'll deal with that later right well there's some debate about whether it should be done now in these last few weeks while Democrats still have control I've avoid that kind of they should because the catastrophic effects of an of an actual default not the debates I understand both sides well I wanted how they want to use it is that's catastrophic or potentially catastrophic I would never take that risk so if for me yes I'd get it done now take take it off the table so you said back in 2019 on CNBC my heart is democratic but my brain is kind of Republican the world's changed a lot since 2019.
I wonder what what you were thinking right now I I'm kind of the same place I just think we need rational policy you know really rational policy and that a lot of that policy is not democrat or republican getting proper infrastructure built enough Democratic Republican we should all acknowledge that inner city schools don't work particularly well in a lot of areas half the kids don't graduate that's not Democratic Republic that's acknowledging the problem and then talking about Solutions health care we have the best in the world hell I'm a beneficiary of it but we also have some of the worst to us almost 20 percent of GDP 50 million people uninsured huge obesity high blood pressure I think a lot of things which are fixable and you know I can go on and on we need good policy you know good and no policy sometimes bad policy Face the Nation we'll be back in one minute with more from our interview with Jamie dimon stay with us here's more of our interview with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie dimon I want to ask you about China it looks like they are loosening some of their coveted restrictions maybe moving away from Cove at zero how do you see this impacting the long and short term I think they want to get their economy going again that's a function of capital covered laws trade and things like that and they've just started to have real conversations or they said they're going to a Dubai Administration the most important thing about China and Americans that we actually talk that we actually get engaged at a detailed level about we agree where we disagree and try to resolve these things then also work on some of the things we've got to do together climate terrorism nuclear proliferation bioterrorism that's in all of our interest to fix those problems and you can't do without America and China because it's not just the second largest economy in the world our countries are incredibly intertwined they're incredibly intertwined but you but you what you really need is American leadership to do this and to bring our religion if we do it just bilaterally it will not work if we because the Chinese will go negotiate separate better deals you know God knows how many different countries so we need to do it kind of in combination with allies so the US and China are in direct competition and the chances of conflict are are rising on the National Security front um the former Goldman Sachs CEO and treasury secretary Hank Paulson has warned the two economies are just too intertwined to separate at this point how do you think about that and the increased conversation about trying to find separate Supply chains and weaning ourselves off of of cheap Chinese manufacturing what we need is tough negotiations and you've already been so National Security that's going to be about semiconductors rare Earths penicillins you know that's that's unilateral the Giants do that we do it uh most businesses support it that's gets very complicated we talk about export controls and investment controls but basically the government's working with people like us a lot of the companies but how do you implement something like that that's that that is good for National Security 30 but doesn't diminish American business doing well overseas some of that Eternal will be that we need better development Finance better diplomacy we need better rules around how Banks or companies could go down and invest in foreign countries to do things that make sense but you're just saying the state department and those other sort of softer bits of diplomacy need to be beefed up immediately well when you talk about and you reference their investment in semiconductors here electric vehicles that kind of thing that's part of The Binding administration's domestic economic revitalization but it is national security policy as well there are some critics that say that that's causing a little bit of Market Distortion there it does I think look you know this stuff gets complicated and remember it gets written by Congress and right so the body is pretty good but it has really irritated the Europeans because it's by America build America it's a huge disadvantage for you know a part of the world we need really very good relations with the president did say we can tweak it modify it and electric vehicles and I think that could be done yeah but here's the really important part of this it's not not just that if Europe goes Its Own Way in trade and they said they're going to do their own Ira Bill be their own trade block buy America by Europe build Europe that is very bad for the global negotiations of trade that is very bad for National Security we'll be right back Jamie dimon was in West Baltimore last week to Mark the opening of Chase Bank's latest Community Branch part of a 30 billion dollar program that helps underserved communities improve banking Access Financial education and economic Mobility we asked him about the community banking program and the gaps at JPMorgan Chase hopes to address so in coming in here JPMorgan has to change some of the parameters because you're reaching people who are unbanked yes how do you know if someone is credit worthy if they've never owned a home they've never had a bank account when you're here and you ask and you know the neighborhoods and you work with government you do multiple things you can do use other facts that are not used in traditional underwriting like do you have you paid rent for 10 years so you and I would both say if there is a a mother or father a family paying rent for 10 years that's a good credit size we we take a little bit of a stretch on that the government here came up with a very special program to to put in the seed money to rehab the whole block once they rehab the whole block we can step in and start making mortgages so people can buy the homes and live there and so there are there are multiple plants to do it on the entrepreneur of color fund that we do small businesses you know we get we give them an advisor too that gives us great comfort that they're doing the right things in this moment we're in right now um you have mortgage rates what about seven percent six and a half yeah it's hard to get access but the fed's also trying to cool off a housing market bubble we look right through that and we will look past the actual rates remember the important thing about mortgages and this is why I do criticize some public policy sometimes mortgages are how most Americans got their their net worth right and if you can't get a smaller mortgage to buy a house it's hard to build your net worth mortgages also by the way how often people funded their small business startup so it is absolutely critical and you know one of the things we've been trying to change a little bit is because of all excessive rules now and I'm talking about things that would make risk worse about origination servicing securitization the cost of a small mortgage is probably 50 basis points higher than it should be so that 150 000 mortgage or two hundred thousand dollar mortgage is less affordable by a lot of people and that's because of regulatory policy that's not because of Bank policy the critic would say a big bad Wall Street Bank is loading debt onto poor people how do you respond to that we're not trying to load debt on anyone we want to make good mortgages we want to do good small business loans we want to educate people how to open an account how to save money we've got you know it's products that are special for lower income community and stuff like that we are going to do that it is good for this community
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