저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준 의장이 금리 인하 필요성을 시사하며 고용 리스크를 강조해 시장이 랠리했다고 해석. 엘-에리안은 파월이 선제적으로 보지 못했다고 비판하며 9월 인하가 늦었다고 주장. 관세·이민·세제 변화로 불확실성이 크고 AI·생명과학·로봇 등 생산성 향상이 긍정 요인이라 봄. 인텔 지분 인수는 소유와 통제를 구분해야 하며 정부 통제 확대는 위험하다고 경고. 리사 쿡 연준 이사 해임 압박 등 정치적 개입 우려, 5월 파월 임기 만료 전까지 압박이 커질 수 있음.
다듬은 글
We turn now to the US economy. Muhammad Alaran is the chief economic adviser at Aliance and he joins us this morning from Greenidge, Connecticut. Good morning to you. Good morning, Margaret. So, we saw the the Federal Reserve chair signal on Friday that the Fed is going to, as expected, begin lowering rates very soon.
Um, but he also cited slowing economic growth and a cooling job market. So why then did the financial markets rally? Because he finally pivoted to the risk that matters most for the US economy right now. By construct the Fed has to deliver two things. Maximum employment and price stability. And the Fed is looking at slightly higher inflation and a weakening labor market.
And what pal finally did and many of us feel he should have done this earlier is he said the risk to the employment side is higher than the risk to the inflation side and therefore an interest rate cut is warranted. As you know many of us felt he should have cut last month. Well the Fed chair said significantly higher tariffs are remaking the entire global trade system.
tighter immigration policy has slowed labor growth and there are big tax and regulation changes you can't quite you know quantify at this point but it's a lot of uncertainty since economists have to build off of models and data um how do you predict where we're going if basically he's saying throw out your models
so one of the problems is he hasn't looked forward enough he's been very data dependent and therefore he has tended to be Look, there is something promising in our future and that is productivity enhancement that comes from exciting innovation in AI, in life sciences, in robotics and other area. We just have to manage a challenging few months in the period ahead.
And if that challenge is mishandled, we will not be able to get the opportunities that we have that offset a lot of structural headwinds. And that includes high debt and high deficits. I want to ask you about something we were discussing with Congressman Lawyer Lawler just before you. Um, and that is this unusual decision for the US government to take a stake in chipmaker Intel.
That company's been struggling of late and its CEO was criticized by the president of the United States. He was criticized by the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Tom Cotton. President Trump mentioned all of that on Friday and he said this. He walked in wanting to keep his job and he ended up giving us10 billion for the United States.
So we picked up 10 billion and we do a lot of deals like that. The president said the CEO wanted to keep his job so he offered a 10% stake in his company. Um is this signaling a new era for US policy? I mean central planning of the economy. I don't think so. Well, Margaret, look, as the congressman said, it's good to send the message that companies will not get something for nothing.
And that is what they've gotten used to since 2008, all the bailouts. And what the US is saying now is we which were paid back. But at the time, the government took enormous risk in many many areas. Um the most important distinction, if I may here, is between ownership and control. Yes, the government can own 10% but it must not control how this company manages its affair because once we go down that road that is a really dangerous road and that would eat away at what makes America really special which is a dynamic entrepreneurial economy
and I believe the commerce secretary said there won't be control but that is uh something to watch for. I I want to also ask you about political pressure, not just on the Federal Reserve chair, uh, which you've nodded to, but the president is also now threatening to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
Um, they're accusing her without publicly disclosed evidence of mortgage fraud and urging an investigation. In fact, the Justice Department wrote a letter to Chair Powell encouraging her to be removed. Are you concerned that this is starting to be a pattern here of political interference with the Federal Reserve?
So these allegations are unproven and it's important to stress that. Having just said that, this is the fifth time in the last 5 years that there has been allegations against a Fed official and already four of them have had to resign. So, what I'm concerned about is that there seems to have been a culture that has developed at the Fed that has resulted in these four um resignations, but I am very worried about preserving Fed independence and an independent central bank is critical to the well-being of the economy and there's lots of reasons for that.
So, you know, one has to distinguish distinguish between the two. I can't speak to the unproven allegations, but I do think it's really important to defend the central bank independence. Well, as I understand it, the governor has said she wants to uh, you know, share information um and is is denying wrongdoing here.
But just the fact that it is the president directing the attention towards her, doesn't this suggest that even if Jerome Powell steps aside as head of the Federal Reserve, that this isn't going to stop this big spotlight on the central bank that is so powerful and that the the fear you have of political interference may not go away.
Yes. And I my fear and my concern is that the longer chair pal is in his position and it runs out in May. The longer he's in his position until then, the more this acts as a magnet for attacking not only deeper attacks from the president, but much broader from the political system. And that's one thing that quite a few people are worried about.
Muhammad Alarim, thank you so much for sharing your insight today. We'll leave it there.
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