저자: VictoriaGreen · 외국인
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2022년 10월 실적시즌 전망 인터뷰로, 실적 기대치가 낮지만 달러 강세와 기술주 구조조정으로 추가 실망 가능성이 있다고 봄. 실적 전망: 주요 은행 실적을 앞두고 있으며, 시장 기대치는 낮은 편이나 달러 강세가 3분기 역풍으로 작용해 추가 실망 가능성이 있다고 봄. 펩시는 상향 서프라이즈를 냈지만 기술 기업들은 어려움을 겪을 것으로 예상. 에너지와 산업재는 상대적으로 양호할 전망. 경기 침체 논쟁: 바이든 대통령의 침체 부정 발언과 제이미 다이먼의 추가 고통 경고를 비교. 본인은 다이먼에 동의하며 실질적으로 이미 침체 국면이라고 보고, 2023년에 경기 침체가 체감될 수 있다고 봄. 금리 인상의 노동시장 반영 시차는 약 12개월. 에너지 투자: 미국 셰일 생산 손익분기점은 배럴당 약 30~40달러로 유가 대비 여유가 크고, 미국은 러시아 공백으로 순 석유제품 수출국이 됨. 12월 EU 제재와 보험 문제로 해운·유조선 시장에 기회가 있다고 봄. 데본, 다이아몬드백, 셰니어 등 미국 에너지 생산·수출 기업을 선호하며 비중확대 상태를 유지하나 6월에 일부 축소함. 사우디는 전략적 동맹으로 신뢰하기 어렵다는 입장. 기타 종목: 코스트코는 재고 처분 수혜와 미국 매출 비중(약 75%) 측면에서 긍정적. IBM은 배당수익률이 높고 하이브리드 클라우드·AI·데이터 컨설팅으로 체질을 바꿨다고 평가. 헬스케어(유나이티드헬스)는 방어주로 선호. 달러 강세 영향이 작은 미국 매출 비중 높은 기업이 상대적으로 견조할 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
now all of this comes as we kick off earnings season we're starting to get some of those results in with the big Banks later to report this Friday for more on what to expect we have here with us in studio Victoria green g-squared private wealth CIO it's good to have you happy person absolutely I know I feel like we know each other yeah we met pretty fitting right we're talking about earnings season the bar is pretty low going into this but you say set yourself up for even more disappointment I do I really see the the markers hitting about 34-32 I mean Pepsi did surprise on the upside so if maybe that's that's a little bit of an indicator that expectations have come low enough that that we but we have the dollar I mean the dollar was such a headwind in in Q3 and I think you've got a lot of tech companies that are going to struggle so who's going to do well probably the energy companies that we will probably see Industrials do okay we've seen some uh you know energy companies are going to continue to print money here at 80 90 barrel oil so I think the sectors are going to matter individual company performance is going to matter and what their CEOs did but I think it's like you got to check a box on what EPS is but I think more so everybody wants to know guidance what does this look like going forward how much pressure is it going to happen with the dollar who's doing job Cuts I mean it's expected Intel is going to announce job cuts to follow Microsoft to follow snap you know so we're seeing a lot of job Cuts cutting in the technology sector definitely nervous going to full earnings season financials really kick it off and we'll see did they pick up net interest income or they have having to put too many reserves not seeing any mortgages you know we've definitely seen the mortgages almost grind to a halt and then Investment Banking has been just difficult this year so Banks May struggle so the the four looking statements are what we're looking for going into these results but also you know it seems to be there's still a bit of a debate if you could argue that that you know where exactly we are in terms of the macro picture you have those comments coming in from President Biden saying that he doesn't expect a recession obviously he's the president he's not going to say things are going to get worse but we also got those comments from Jamie Diamond which seems to suggest there are more rough patches ahead how do you view that so I think the fact the president said the r word you know if you're a fan of the the show west wing with a bagel word you know that nobody wants to say the r were just Bagel time but the fact the president is acknowledging it might be a slight recession that has to mean they're even acknowledging The Slowdown is coming the feds acknowledge the Slowdown is coming they're trying to slow it down to slow down inflation I'm with Jamie dimon I actually think we're in a recession I know we can argue the definition of recession and that's technically never's job but if you look at the Slowdown where we're going with growth what's happening with inflation what's happening with the hawkish FED definitely owned Amy diamonds but there's a little more pain coming not sure I'm full IMF right they came out with like hey expect another 20 down like this there's more pain coming everybody is going to feel recession in 23.
I feel like that might be a tad Draconian at this point but I do think we're still going to see the effects remember the lag between rate hikes and when we feel in the labor markets about 12 months so the question is you know where do you position yourself if that slowdown is already underway you've been bullish on energy for quite some time and you know there's there's questions right now especially with the moves on um that we saw from OPEC last week about whether things are really going to start to take up and we have seen them tick up a little where are you positioned in some of those big names sure we we did actually pull a little bit back to energy but we're still overweight we were very very overweight we pulled that back a little bit in June but we still like a lot of so we we like the US emps right the to get it out of the ground in the Permian area is about 30 40 a barrel and you haven't seen the rig count really jump up we're 765 total rigs we're still below pre-pandemic levels and the US has now becoming a net exporter of petroleum products because we are picking up market share from what Russia's stepping back in and there are some big sanctions coming in December from the EU and it's going to hit the shipping and the tankers because they're not going to insure them and if nobody's insuring an oil cargo which like I believe something like 95 percent of insurance is issued by the UK and in the Euro area so I see opportunity in U.S energy producers we liked our Devon Devon you know uh Diamondback announced the acquisition today we really like the cheniere it's a natural gas exporter we think the gas story because we feel like the story of energy security for the next decade yes EVS are coming yes solar's coming you have we hit peak oil demand yeah we'll see but we we also see also the slit that we need people buying energy from allies you know when we're dealing with that with Saudi Arabia right now that is Saudi Arabia really an ally or to to sound like my Millennial self are they a friend of me like we're friends with them a little bit but in reality we're not really and if you look at the geopolitical macro view you have major players that we may have massive political shifts in we have Saudi Arabia we have Iran and we have Venezuela and we're slightly not saying this is a grand decision and picking sides here but we're slightly warming up to Venezuela because we realize Saudi Arabia really is not working on our best interests right now yeah I mean we did hear the president comment on that yesterday suggesting that there could be more moves coming against Saudi Arabia on the back of that decision so you know energy it sounds like you're still you pulled back a bit but you're still positive on it in this environment what are some other names that you think are getting overlooked right now that offer real value uh so and I love my Costco I'll talk about Costco anytime I love my Costco not the stock itself I'm talking about the company but not even the dollar fifty hot but it's the they're also picking up inventory so this second Amazon Prime day that we've gotten is not just because Amazon's trying to be nice to us they're trying to dump inventory everybody's got inventory Nike's got inventory so the Costcos and the TJ Maxx of the world that are kind of the off-brand they're not beholden to any brand names so they're picking up cheap inventory and they're moving at their discount store they're 75 in the US the bulk of their International exposures Canada which has held up better so I think they're going to have a little bit less currency effects I like them I like a really boring name IBM I think they're a great place to hide they've got a strong dividend yield I think as a service and a tech company goes Tech spending it's going to continue and because of the the way they're positioned I think they're going to see a little bit more sustainability in revenues because that's what we're looking at right now as we move forward and things get pressured who's going to still make money and who's at risk of being cut and so I think they're very well positioned they're reasonably valued but I think they still have a lot of growth they've changed who they were and people realize IBM is a very old company but they've redeveloped them some multiple multiple times you know they sold off Lenovo got out of the PC business and now they're in the hybrid cloud and Ai and data Consulting and I see data and data and Healthcare is a great place to be and the last place playing defense is Healthcare like a United Health great name to be in right now and again a little bit less effect with the dollar so some of these names that have more revenues coming from the US I think also will hold up a little bit better yeah names from three very different sectors but diversification is what we keep hearing uh Victoria green good to have you in studio today yeah thank you so much for having me joining us from g-squared private wealth
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