저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 워런 버핏의 과거 인터뷰·강연 발췌를 엮은 것으로, 현재 시장을 전망하기보다 1929년 대공황과 이후 미국 증시 회복의 역사를 설명한다. 대공황 경험: 1930년 버핏이 태어난 시기에 증시는 급락했고, 그의 아버지는 증권 영업사원으로 일하던 은행이 문을 닫으며 실직했다. 당시 사람들은 이것을 대공황이 아니라 흔한 경기침체로 여겼다. 예금보험 제도: 버핏은 1934년 도입된 FDIC(연방예금보험공사)가 대공황의 심리적 상처를 줄인 가장 좋은 제도였다고 평가했다. 4000여 개 은행 파산이 개인 저축의 신뢰를 무너뜨렸다는 점을 강조했다. 회복 기간: 1929년 고점 이후 다우지수가 원래 수준을 회복하는 데 약 25년이 걸렸다. 1954년 다우가 381을 넘자 1929년 재현 우려가 커졌고, 1955년 상원 은행위원회는 전문가 20여 명을 불러 조사했다. 벤 그레이엄 인용: 그레이엄은 당시 증시가 '높아 보이지만 생각만큼 높지는 않다'고 증언했다는 일화가 소개된다. 결론: 버핏은 미국은 전쟁·남북전쟁·대공황에도 살아남았으므로 미국에 베팅하는 것을 믿으라고 말한다. 다만 이는 장기적 낙관론이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다. 출연자 전망: 버핏은 장기적으로 미국 경제와 증시의 회복력을 낙관하지만, 1~3개월 단위의 시장 방향에 대한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
we had an enormous economic recovery but the minds of people had been so scarred the memories parents told their children 1929 became a symbol in people's minds and as you said 1929 it was like saying 1776 or 1492. I mean everybody knew exactly what you were talking about in 1929 my dad who was 26 years of age then was employed as a security salesman by a a local small Bank he sold stocks and bonds but he mostly sold stocks and when stocks fall 48 percent and they were selling them to people a few months ago you really don't feel like going out and facing those same people so I think my dad probably elected to do is they say now shelter in place which means stay at home and there really wasn't that much in our house just out of a small yard it was winter time anyway my dad wouldn't have been puttering on the yard anyway and everybody was you know television wasn't there and he and my mother got along very well so under those conditions I was born about nine months later so I didn't notice at the time that the market was closed but stock market had actually recovered over 20 percent during that nine and a half month period or thereabouts people did not think in the fall of 1930 they did not think they were in the great a Great Depression they thought it was a recession very much like had occurred at least a dozen times although not always when stock markets were important but then we'd had many recessions in the United States over the time and this did not look like it was something dramatically out of the ordinary actually for about 10 days after my birth the stock market actually managed to go up all up one or two percent there in those 10 days well from that point the stock market went from level of 240 to 41 which was a noticeable decline because if somebody had given me a thousand dollars on the day I was born and I bought stock with it and bought the Dow average my thousand dollars would have become one hundred and seventy dollars in in less than two years that is something that none of us here that ever experienced that we may have had it with one stock occasionally but but in terms of uh having a Blog range of America marked down 83 in two years and marked down 89 percent of the peak that was in September 3rd 29 it was extraordinary and in that intervening period less than one year after I was born is slightly less than one year my dad went to the bank where he worked and had his account and of course the bank had to sign out of closed and so he had no job he had two kids at that point his father had a grocery store but Charlie and I both worked for my grandfather Charlie worked there in 1940 I worked there in 1941 so we didn't know each other but my grandfather said to my father that don't worry about your groceries I already says I'll just let your bill run that was my grandpa's not exactly he cared about his family but it wasn't going to go crazy and one of the things as I look back on that period And I don't think the economist generally like to give it that much of a point of importance but but if we'd had the FDIC the FDIC started on January 1st 1934 it was part of the sweeping legislation that took place when Roosevelt came in but if we'd had the FDI I see we would have had a much different experience I believe in the in the Great Depression people playing on smooth smooth hall here and they I mean they there's all kinds of things and the margin requirements in 29 and all of those things entered into creating a recession but if you have over 4 000 Banks fail that's 4 000 local experiences where people save and save and save put their money away and then someday they reach for it and it's gone and that happens you know in all 48 states and it happens to your neighbors and it happens to your relatives it has to have an effect on the psyche it's incredible so one very very very good thing it came out of the depression in my view is the FDIC and it would have been a somewhat different world I'm sure if the bank failures hadn't just rolled across this country and and with people that thought that they were Savers found out that they had nothing when they went there and there was a sign that said closed so the Great Depression went on and lasted a very long time but it lasted a lot longer in the minds of people than it did actually in its effects World War II came along and on sort of an involuntary manner we adopted keynesianism we started running fiscal deficits of course that were absolutely huge and took our debt up to a percentage of GDP which we've never reached had never reached before and never reached since so we had an enormous economic recovery but the minds of people had been so scarred the memories parents told their children 1929 became a simple in people's minds I mean if you said 1929 he was like saying 1776 or 1492.
I mean everybody knew exactly what you were talking about and it affected stock prices in a rather remarkable way it was January 4th of 1951 that the kiddo was born on August 30th in 1930 had finished College before the stock market got back to where it was at that earlier time so take the years from 1920 1929 with the 1951 and bear in mind that you know the country was only 140 years old window started that that's 20 years out of a this amazing 231 year lifetime of our country that was flat out time of for a long time of no economic growth and no Feeling by people in terms about the wealth of the country the about what American economy was worth what all these corporations that were doing far far better than they were all in all but it took all of that time to restore uh in the market a price level it was equal to what it was when I was born 20 years earlier so if you think about the fact that we're enduring a few months and we'll endure some many more months and we don't know how it comes out out and people in the 30s didn't know I was going to come out but they endured and persevered and prospered and the American Miracle continued but it's interesting in that at the start of 1954 the stock market was the DOW was only at about 280 and I remember 1954 because it was the best year I ever had in the stock market uh the Dow went from 280 or thereabouts at the start of the year to a little over 400 at the end of the year and as soon as it went across 381 that famous figure from 1929 when it went to 400 everybody wondered is this 1929 all over again and that seems a little far-fetched because it was a different country in 1954 but that was the common question and it actually achieved such a level of worry about whether we were about to jump off another Cliff just because the 381 of 1929 have been succeeded exceeded that Senator Fulbright told Fulbright of Arkansas who became very famous later in terms of the Foreign Relations Committee but he added the Senate Banking Committee and he called a special or special investigation he really was questioning whether we had built another house of cards again and his Committee in March of 1955 with the Dow at 405 assembled 20 of the best Minds in the United States to testify as to whether we were going crazy again the Dallas at 400 and we'd gotten in this incredible trouble before but that was the mindset of the country it's incredible we didn't really believe America was what it was and my boss the reason I'm familiar with this was that I was working in New York for one of the 20 people that was called down to testify I remember because Ben Graham was the one of the three smartest people I've met in my life and when he testified the Dow at 404 he had one line in there right toward the start and ends written testimony and he said the stock market is high looks High it is high but it's not as high as it looks and since that time we felt the American Tailwind at full force and the Dow when we made the slide it was about twenty four thousand so you're looking at a market today that has produced a hundred dollars for every dollar all you did it was had to believe an American just buy a cross-section of America you didn't you didn't have to read The Wall Street Journal you didn't have to look up the price of your stock you didn't have to pay a lot of money and fees to anybody you just had to believe that the American miracle was intact but you'd had this testing period between 1929 and certainly 1954 as indicated by what happened when it got back up to 380.
you had testing period and people really they'd lost faith to some degree they just didn't see the potential of what America could do and we found that nothing can stop America when you get right down to it it's been true all along it may have been interrupted wasn't the scariest of scenarios when you had a war with one group of states fighting another group of states and it may have been tested again in the Great Depression and it may be tested now to some degree but in the end the answer is never bet against America and that in my view is as true today as it was in 1789 and even withdrew at the during the Civil War and the depths of the depression
Comments 0