저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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피터 린치가 주식 투자에서 흔히 하는 위험한 말 10가지를 사례와 함께 설명하는 교육 영상이다. 결론: 주가가 많이 빠졌다고 더 안 빠진다고 단정하면 안 되며, 주식은 소유하지 않으면 손실도 없고 장기 견해도 근거가 있어야 한다. 하락 후 바닥 단정 경계: 폴라로이드(140→107 후 100 하회 시 매수 열풍, 9개월 내 18 수준), 카이저 인더스트리(29→17→15.75에 대량 매수했으나 4까지 하락, 이후 자산 매각으로 주주 환원) 사례를 들어, '이미 많이 떨어졌으니 더 안 떨어진다'는 논리는 위험하다고 설명한다. 과거 주가 흐름 근거: 타코벨 14→1(1974), 필립모리스는 5배 상승 후 매도한 사례 등을 들어 상승 중이라 더 못 오른다는 말도 위험하다고 본다. 시장 구조적 부담 사례: RCA·Western Union 등 과거 고점 회복 실패 사례를 들어 '언젠가는 돌아온다'는 말을 비판한다. 원금 회복 기준(본전 매도) 경계: 주식은 내가 샀던 가격을 알지 못하며, 원금 회복 시 매도하는 규칙은 손실 확정을 부를 수 있다고 강조한다. 구체적 산업 사례: 철도차량 인도량(9.6만→2.5만 대), 에너지 서비스 장비 수(1.1만→1천 이하) 등 업황 바닥 판단의 어려움을 제시한다. 소형주·투기주 경계: 검증되지 않은 long shot 주식은 대부분 본전도 못 찾았다고 밝히며, 특정 종목을 손실 없이 다른 종목을 모르는 것으로 손실이 없다는 역설을 설명한다. 린치는 이 영상에서 개별 종목에 대한 향후 가격 방향 예측이나 매수·매도 권고를 하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
it's three dollars how much can I lose this is a great one because yeah this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high-level math but uh just do this one let's say you buy your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at fifty the Stock's now three and you put twenty five thousand dollars in it free if it goes to zero who loses the most people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in a three you could lose a billion I mean they blow Taps and lots of companies every you know you just have they can go to zero now what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh here's a good one it's gone down this much already can't go any lower I remember when Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get polar at under 100 you gotta buy it there's back up the truck buy the stock uh stock you get 110 and rally you know fall 103 112 105.
gets under 100 bipolar Polaroid broke 100 people started buying it and within nine months the stock was 18. I saw sending Avon products so just saying you know it's gone down this far you know how much lower I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I try this out Kaiser Industries I was a new analyst Fidelity and we're about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17.
we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought 10 or 15 million shares it's 50 in three quarters I said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much longer can it go if you buy this enormous block at 15 and three quarters so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess soccer kaisun says it's 10.
so about three months later said you ought to buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go well went to nine it went to eight it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four unfortunately this happened very rapidly or I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and behind the line so Fidelity so fortunately this was compressed in only about six months so I had to go the fun we have to say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and three quarters we call this premature in the business the uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism losing a lot of money rapidly at the uh so I said let's check this again the stocks for they own 45 percent of Kaiser Aluminum 59 of Kaiser steel they own 38 percent of guys cement all of Kaiser Electronics all of Kaiser broadcasting which had seven TV sets on Jeep the Kaiser fiberglass about Kaiser Santa gravel a bunch of other Kaisers and then no dead now in this room because I know agreement buildings is very interested in financial stocks no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to get some kind of distinguished service award if somebody did that but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong and I said it can't go below 15.
so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares and guys still gave out the shares and kaisersman gave out the shares and Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got 55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 15 to 11 and you're just saying how much low can it go when it went to 918 you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell from 14 to 1 in 1974 and they had no debt in making 60 cents a share there's a cool area to that that's even more dangerous it's gone this high already how can it possibly go lower uh higher sorry that Philip Morris adjusted for splits sold for 12 cents in 1951 and then it goes to 60 cents in 1961.
it goes up five-fold you say yourself how much this never sold for that but just for splits to say how much higher can this go on a five-fold they missed the power of Marlboro they missed the this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a hundred bagger after going up five full but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R Us I did the same thing Toys R Us this thing it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh I it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the uh RCA just about got back to its 1929 price was backed out by G Manville never came back into National Harvester even with its name Chase and adjusted for split says and got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things floppy disks they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back not true here's a great one it's three dollars how much can I lose this is a great one yeah this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high-level math but uh just do this once let's say you buy your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at 50.
it sucks now three and you put 25 000 in at three if it goes to zero who loses the most people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in a three you can lose a billion I mean low Taps and lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero the uh here's a good one they helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn uh the uh this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money at the the uh here's one you're probably talking about before lunch uh freight car deliveries 1979 there was 96 000 Freight cars to live in the United States two years later it fell to forty five thousand the lowest in 23 years it was from 96 000 to 45 000.
people say business is awful it's horrible pathetic then it falls to 25 000 they say just load up there's about 15 opportunities to lose money there's about 15 suppliers of freight cars 15 manufacturers business was awful last year we shipped seven thousand Freight cars in assets the business just continue to be miserable and uh I'll give you one that's even there's even Greener opportunity to lose money on uh Energy Services industry this we all had a great opportunity to get our heads hand to us in 1982 it was 11 000 of those oil rigs drilling left no drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have to recount every week and the recount fell from 11 000 in 82 to 6083 then for a little bit lower than 84 then is hundreds and hundreds of companies here companies have made the muds and did the down hole stuff the fracturing companies the well companies all the measuring companies the shambers the bid companies lots of opportunities to lose money here it's legal opportunity opportunity here for serious losses and people said listen the business is terrible let's buy these groups well the recount was only a thousand three years ago so it went from eleven thousand to six thousand to five thousand then eight years later it was under a thousand the industry really started to turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I was lucky enough to additional medals industry in Star Fidelity I had the textile industry which is a great group to follow because you follow companies like JP Stevens was founded in the 18th century and West Point Pepperell was found in the 18th century Burlington Industries is one of the new companies was founded in 1904.
these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all there's a great expression in Texas industry It's always darkest before pitch black yeah now that's a good one to remember because business is terrible it can get considerably terrible and get terrible to the power of six and uh it uh I love those numbers I figured it was you ever watch I love the show Jeopardy I watch Jeopardy and people come out they will know those numbers remember they'll know the numbers and they'll know you know what uh what country box took his first vacation in and they'll know for Rizzuto's batting average and what his wife's first name was and they'll know the stock symbols of Xerox before was haloid or you know they know everything and you watch the show and you feel like an absolute idiot watching the show because they answer all these questions but they're really smart I almost I've owned a stock before King world right after it they show Wheel of Fortune and they what happens they'll have this word up there will be th and there's a t and it's either by a voltage and you know like Vanna spins the wheel and they buy the A and you know you you Redeemed by watching The Wheel of Fortune I feel like an absolute jerk on the Jeopardy game and uh it's really smart uh when I rebound to 10 I'll sell uh he's a great rule uh somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six I see if it gets back to 10 I'll sell I think the math four and six second handle this level math I think that's about a 66 return You Gotta Buy if you think it's going back to 10 yard by the hell of a damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think the next 26 years the struggle between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to ten so maybe put nine and eight or eight three quarters but just saying the stock and it gets back what I paid for it is a very important rule this is a very it's one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it remember that you could be a miserable person you could have uh you know never helped anybody never done anything right had 67 spouses never done anything right if you owned Coca-Cola last 50 years it's gone up 300 fold you'd be the greatest human in the world help Special Olympics help the mentally challenged help poor people help AIDS people if you're on Bethlehem Steel it's lower than it was 30 years ago it's not your fault don't take this personal you know but people treat stocks sometimes like a grandchildren or a puppy and they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know it doesn't work that way what me worry I own conservative stocks uh I don't have to worry I own good service though I'm in Con Ed fell low 80 then tripled uh Public Service Indiana went down 90 Gulf States utilities long on lighting this may be oxymoron with quality Texas banks that went to Quality New England banks that went to zero these were companies have been around for 150 years 120 years saying I own conservative stocks I don't have to worry I've seen a lot of people don't inherit a stock from somebody they'll say you know my mother said on her deathbed don't sell the Long Island lighting you know you always wonder you know is it she's going to heaven or hopefully where she's going to heaven you know they talk about a little league game or a vacation or a game of Hearts they had or imagine talking on your deathbed about Long Island lighting and he said well you know like you get these stories all the time and I think your mother would have noticed she would have sold at 29 but she wouldn't she would notice it this little plant that was about 6 billion over budget no one wanted it and wasn't working and uh Long Island stopped growing so maybe she would have turf to the 22 or get up at 18 she wouldn't let it go to four so just be sure inherit some stock in a so-called conservative like Eastman Kodak fell 75 IBM pill 75 don't tell anybody you own a good service stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it it uh people do this all the time they say I didn't own Blockbuster I didn't own Home Depot I don't know Toys R Us I uh Eric it was very nice to say some nice things about when I came up here and Manny it's been nice to me I live in one of my books listed on two pages in The 13 years of ram Magellan I listed I think about 200 stocks a through L on the New York style exchange they went up tenfold or more that I didn't know well I remember John I had on lots of stocks I listed 200 stocks eighth oil I stopped at letter L and I didn't know any of the shares they went up tenfold or more and I was able to do okay with magellano and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing uh United Airlines they spent all their time worrying about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own that's a very important you have the only way to lose money is buy stock have it go down and sell it that's the only way and I swear that people that their spouse has to cut out the newspaper in the morning cut out the Seas and personal look at the Amazon oh my God Microsoft's up up three you know I had I was gonna buy a thousand shares of Microsoft I lost 3 000 Microsoft last night while I was sleeping you know we uh you know I was going to buy 7 000 shares of national semiconductor at 10.
it's now 17 I just lost 49 000 on National semiconductor they do this all the time they mean they have to cut holes the block thank God Blockbuster found in one way visit the early alphabet people would always be looking obviously less than Blockbuster I missed that one I'll catch the next that usually does not work Toys R Us there's a lot of copycats at Toys R Us child world it was Lionel there's property cuts from Home Depot buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's a it's very bad it's like buying on dips I think it's always been a buy from dips so it's always a better rule than probably you may have to explain this to some other people uh this is another technical term they have to explain after hours what a dip is usually refer to as plurals dips I never heard dip you know he's a dip she's a dip usually only the plural tense first and it's a gender non-specific it's a it's usually plural it's never used um uh stock has gone up I must be right stock has gone down it must be wrong I'm convinced that people do this all the time they buy stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it goes to 13 that they now say they don't know anything more about it than they know when they bought a 10.
they have no idea what this company does if it's gone 13 now they take a second mortgage in the house and buy it at 13. the best thing could happen for us to stuck up directly from ten to four it's gonna go to four eventually but it goes to 13 in the middle they're convinced now they bought 100 shares of 10.
now they buy twenty thousand and thirteen and uh all the fact is stocking for 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock on here stock exchange this Century between high and slow has been 50 the average stockings that means the stock start of the Year 20 sometime during the year sold 16.
sometimes during the year sold at 24 might have finished year 21 might finish year 19. the average range of a stock and the association is 50 and 12 between sides so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say the stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn so don't buy off an outlet that is not a good one the uh avoid long shot these are the companies that we have this very technical term for this uh called whisper stocks the every family whisper stocks they're uh the greatest Carolyn's how's Beth doing see Annie how's Mary have you play any golf and then I'll say I want to talk to you about International Bolivia and get one of those they'll get a shorter term in those places where they the Nordic tracks and they put them away and they don't have to make big rocks into small rocks they just watch movies and have another tracks but they won't they will not get these people if they whisper in the phone and these are always these long shots you know these are the stocks that are going to uh go hair and make your kid have better spelling and your breasts can improve and you won't have to iron your pants and it's one of those stocks they always do everything for you they're missing they don't have any sales yet you know that's the missing element of the story the story is sensation there's no property no sales yet but my God if this works if this works it's going to be the next Xerox show and it's going to help burn space and everything it's a very very good deal now this is not a launch shot this is a no shot you have to separate these out I've tried 30 of these I have never broken even online now I made 25 30 times my money on some stocks I never thought about Sallie Mae or mbia Fannie Mae or some of the banks or Stop and Shop I made 20 times the money 30 times money I had no idea I thought the stocks are going north I had no idea you look back in years later you say my God I made a lot of money in this but once I went into thinking I could make four times my money I've never broken even so don't do the long shot that's they don't work at the the uh they simply don't work uh and again if a Stock's three and it has huge potential write down the story take the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy it at 15.
check in later check a year later see if it's still listed so you can still get a quote on it see if they still May orange yet but if it's going write the story down some of these work I haven't heard yet but maybe they will work but it's worth tuning in six months later
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