저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 연준이 금리를 너무 빨리 올려 디플레이션 압력을 키우고 있으며, 이미 금융 불안과 자산 청산의 징후가 나타나고 있다고 경고한다. 통화·금리 정책: 연준 금리는 0.25%에서 3.25%로 13배 올랐는데, 볼커 시절(10%→20%)보다 낮은 기저에서 급격히 올린 것이 충격이라고 본다. 연준이 실수하고 있을 가능성이 크다고 주장한다. 통화량 지표: M2 증가율이 2020년 27%에서 꾸준히 둔화해 2023년 9월에는 3% 이하로 떨어질 것으로 보며, 3월 이후 M2가 순감소하는 이례적 현상을 지적한다. 화폐 유통속도도 올라가지 않아 성장·인플레이션 여지가 작다고 본다. 디플레이션 신호: 중고차 가격지수(Manheim)는 1월 고점 대비 14% 하락했고, 중고차 대출(약 1조 달러) 부실 우려를 제기한다. 구리 -30%, 목재 -73%, 철광석 -45%, 반도체 가격 -46%, 원유 -29%, 금 -17%, 발틱건화물지수 -48%를 근거로 제시한다. 금융 안정성: 영국 연금의 저금리 환경 파생상품 의존과 자산 청산 위험을 언급하며, 영국 중앙은행 개입 사례를 들어 시스템 리스크를 경고한다. 일본·중국의 자국 통화 방어 개입도 언급한다. 기업·소매: 기업 부채 확대와 단기 주주 압력을 문제로 지목하고, 나이키 재고 44% 증가와 가격 인하 가능성을 들어 소매 부문 전반의 취약성을 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 현재 상황을 '카타르시스의 순간'으로 보며 문제가 본격화되고 있다고 본다. 특정 종목 매수·매도 권고는 없다.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood is the founder and the CEO of an argue Investment Management a firm that specialized in investing in disruptive technology Arc invest is focused on one thing and one thing alone disruptive innovation she's known for bullish views on the Innovative Industries such as electric vehicles genomics and artificial intelligence Kathy will believe that the Federal Reserve is making a mistake by raising interest rates too quickly which could lead to deflationary pressures in the economy she sees a number of indicators of deflation including slowing M2 growth decreased its spending by individuals and businesses falling commodity prices and they'll drop in used car prices most people here in the United States are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us M2 growth peaked at 27 percent in 2020.
and has been slowing ever since it hit 4.1 percent in August we believe it is closing in or might be below three percent on a year-over-year basis in September which doesn't leave a lot of room for growth or inflation unless velocity is really picking up the the rate at which money turns over and we're in an environment where we do not believe velocity is picking up if anything I think individuals and businesses are becoming more concerned and are spending less freely if you look at M2 also you'll see that it actually peaked in March now this is very unusual to see sequential declines in money I'd like to build the case a little more here that the FED is probably making a mistake I say probably because I have to from a compliance point of view but I really do believe that the FED is making a mistake term appal really does think he is The Reincarnation of chairman volcker that we need him to take a sledgehammer to inflation much like volcker did German vulker did choke off money supply and and killed inflation it by the time the FED got around to tackling it this time it was not a 15-year problem it was a 15-month problem and from our point of view it was caused primarily by shocks major shocks to the system that we had never seen before we had not had since Spanish influenza a global pandemic we had we did not have the supply chain problems two years worth of them because of the covet panic and then of course we had another shock to top those off and that was Russia's invasion of Ukraine so these are shocks to the system well chairman was dealing with double-digit interest rates he took interest rates from 10 percent to 20 percent now by the time he did that consumers and businesses had gotten used to maneuvering around inflation so while that sounds shocking going from 10 to 20 percent and it did have some Shock value it wasn't the same as what we're experiencing today with chairman Powell and the FED today we've gone from 0.25 a percent on the FED funds rate to 3.25 which is 13 a 13-fold increase not a two-fold increase chairman Powell is behaving that what's behaving as though what's going on today with inflation is much worse than what uh volcker inherited starting from a low base is really shocking the system especially given how long interest rate have been low I question the premise of those who say oh this is so different at such a low base that's the whole point it's a low base 13 times now we have been expecting uh serious ramifications financial and other ramifications because of this monetary policy and we've we've gotten the first one but most people here in the United States are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us but I was in the UK around the time it had its near Lehman moment Kathy Wood highlights the risk of the Pension funds in the UK relying on shortcuts and derivatives in the low rate environment leading to their Market instability and liquidation of assets the bank of England has to step in for Innovation to prevent a collapse of the financial system she also mentions recent speeches by the FED about raising interest rates should achieve two percent inflation while China intervenes to limit the weakening of the U.N and Japan support its currency by dumping dollars to the market we're seeing other changes we've seen China intervene to limit the weakening of it of the Yuan we've seen Japan doing the same now what is that what are they doing when they do that well when Japan is trying to support its currency at 145 Yen to the dollar it sells dollars and buys back Yen and so we'll see uh what happens from here I think this is getting to be so serious that we are reaching a cathartic moment and I do think it started Kathy also talks about how the youth card in index has gone down by 14 since January which shows that there's deflation happening in the market people who bought cars during the pandemic might not need them anymore so the price of the used car has gone down a lot this is another deflation indicator in the system we've been worrying about auto credit for a while now and now we have more reason to yesterday we got the Mannheim used car index it's a a value index pricing effectively if we're right the used car price index is going to collapse here why that index peaked in January and is now down 14 percent just since January and now dealers who were paying too much for used cars are sitting on losses and they are going to have to discourage those inventories we believe that's already happening and there's about a trillion dollars bottle paper now this won't be a systemic risk but because Auto paper was the best performing paper during 0809 this is going to be quite a surprise a number of investors she then highlights the negative impact of a short-term shareholder pressure on corporate that and the risks posed to retail sectors she sized Nike's high inventory and potential price Cuts in the Kami monk well corporations have a lot of debt why do they have a lot of debt well they've been catering to short-term shareholders who want them to buy back shares and don't mind that they're leveraging up to do so or they want them to pay dividends and don't mind that they're leveraging up because becoming more indebted well this is becoming a big problem for certain sectors of the economy that are in the throes of disruption both cyclical and secular and I think the retail sector is one of those we remain astonished at the inventory build up taking place out there Nike's inventories increase 44 and that's an August quarter there were already telltale signs that the consumer was weakening its North American inventories were up 68 and the inventories in transit mostly from Asia were up 85 percent in order to clear the shelves Nike is going to have to cut prices and retailers will as well and we believe this is just a microcosm of a much broader problem out there happy world discusses the significant decline in commodity prices including gold copper Lambert and iron War which may indicate the trouble for Global infrastructure she note that the market are setting up across the board which may suggest than the FED is actually too tight gold price down 17 copper down 30 Lumber down 73 percent think about that housing is collapsing iron ore down 45 infrastructure around the world has run into trouble especially China corn down 17 silver down 29 dram prices which are chips uh semiconductors down 46 percent the Baltic Freight index down 48 that's an indicator of supply chain issues oil down 29 percent so just taking the evidence and putting it together like this there is a lot of data to be driving the FED which is what they say is happening but we don't think it's happening
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