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Jamie Dimon just said something that he almost never says. He said this feels like the years leading into 2008. He said his anxiety is high. He said people are getting comfortable. He said firms are doing dumb things. He said asset prices are high. And high prices add to risk. And he said borrower defaults are coming.
When the CEO of the largest bank in the country starts talking like that, that's not noise. That's a signal. Because when credit turns, regular people are going to feel it first. So let's strip away the finance language for a second. When defaults start rising, banks will start tightening. And when banks tighten, here's what this looks like.
You try to refinance, denied. Your credit card limit gets reduced. A small business loan doesn't get approved. Hiring freezes at your company. Raises get smaller. You can you don't need a crash to feel that. You just need tighter money. That's how it starts. Quietly, and then it spreads. So here's what Dimon laid out.
He said that high asset prices create risk. He said that the cycle will turn. And there will be a wave of borrower defaults. He said the surprise, the surprise in every credit cycle, is which industry gets hit first. In 2008, it wasn't the obvious names. This time he said it could be software because of AI.
He said firms are chasing interest income. He said some are doing again dumb things. And he said that the risk in private credit may not stay isolated. This is not mid-cycle confidence talk, folks. That's late-cycle talk. So let's address the obvious for a second. Stocks are up again today. Markets are near highs.
So people will say this is fear-mongering. If the risk was real, the market wouldn't be rallying. You don't know what you're talking about. That's exactly how late cycles look. In 2006 and early 2007, markets were strong. Home prices were rising. Credit looked stable. Everything felt fine right before it wasn't.
And I know because I was a business owner, an entrepreneur in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, and then lived through the aftermath, both personally and with my clients and the legal issues that arose afterwards. Again, markets don't peak um when fear is high. They peak when comfort is high.
So what did Diamond say? People are getting comfortable. If everything was solid, why would he bring up 2008? If credit was healthy, why talk about a wave of coming defaults? If risk was truly contained, then why warn that private credit may not stay isolated? Careful people don't use that tone casually.
They use it when leverage is building under the surface, and that's the pattern. So, what actually will break next? Not necessarily the stock market tomorrow morning. It might keep going up for a while. What breaks next is flexibility. Families lose borrowing power. Businesses lose breathing room. Credit approvals shrink.
Risk tolerance disappears. Again, you don't That's where you see sirens. You see application denied. That's where credit cycles start to bite. It's not dramatic. It's just tighter. Let's look at the position that we're in right now. If the Fed cuts interest rates, what's going to happen? Asset prices will keep going higher.
Debt will keep building more and more. And risk will stretch further. On the other hand, if the Fed holds rate steady, and there's some talk in the last day or so from some of the Fed presidents that they're considering holding steady, then what's going to happen? Borrowers will feel more strain. Defaults will rise quicker.
And pressure will build. Asset prices will come down, and leverage will start to unwind. Okay? Defaults rise, and when defaults rise, banks tighten. So, every path is going to create stress somewhere. There isn't a clean, let's say, painless option here. Okay? So, that's what no way out means. It doesn't mean collapse tomorrow.
It means every direction carries consequences. Let's think for a second about the AI angle that Jamie Dimon mentioned. He said, uh his words were, "The the surprise this time could be software. Well, look, millions of Americans are exposed to tech through their 401(k)s, through index funds, through retirement accounts.
What happens not if, but when AI expectations cool, the data centers completion dates keep getting pushed out, earnings disappoint, and valuations start to compress? Then what happens? Well, retirement balances drop. And when retirement balances drop, confidence drops, and that leads to slower spending.
And when spending slows, then businesses react, and that's how the cycle rolls over. And most people never see the connection coming. Private credit has been exploding in recent years. Discuss it all the time on this channel. Companies have borrowed heavily. Investors were chasing, and still are chasing yield.
Diamond's own deputy recently warned problems may not stay isolated in private credit. And when that stress spreads, it doesn't stay on Wall Street. Understand that. It shows up in hiring freezes. It shows up in smaller raises. It shows up in layoffs and harder refinancing. The tightening starts in finance, and households feel that.
So again, Jamie Dimon did not come out in his comments yesterday and predict an immediate collapse. He didn't predict panic or take that tone per se. What he said is watch out. He said anxiety is high. He said defaults are coming. In 2008, people were comfortable, too. I was there. The state of no comes before the pain.
And when credit tightens, the middle class feels it first. That's why this matters. Watch out. So if you guys enjoyed the content today, uh do me a favor and leave me a like on the video. If you're not subscribed, consider subscribing subscribing, excuse me, to the channel so we can keep growing the community.
Leave your thoughts and comments. I enjoy reading those and responding as time permits. Uh and with that being said, uh I will talk to all of you soon.
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