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cuz the world is going to the world will be radically different in 5 years and it's going to go year by year become radically different next elections the debt situation all of these things are going to change many viewers have been concerned about the impending crisis and how to deal with it so let's see what Ray Delio the founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates one of the most important voices in Global Financial markets and the Steve Jobs of investing has to say Ray Delio is closely watching the fiscal situation and believes the us is going to have a debt crisis that will affect every major and every common man like you how fast it transpires is going to be a function of that Supply demand issue the country's debt has been under scrutiny after political brinkmanship around the debt limit earlier this year which brought the Us close to a default in August rating agency Fitch downgraded Us credit rating by a notch from the top tier citing fiscal breakdown over the next 3 years and repeated down the wire debt cealing negotiations a looming government shutdown could Elevate the country's pain Delo talked not only about investing in a tough market and the difficult times ahead for the global economy but also about how to survive in such times according to him we have to look at two factors the normal economic factors particular the enormous creation of debt then the monetization of that which means the central Bank printing money and buying the debt but at the same time we are going through two other factors that are disruptive and connected one is a great internal conflict due to large wealth gaps which we can see in elections all around and particularly in the way the United States is fragmenting they are not just money issues but ballot politics and secondly we have internationally a great power conflict because the US is no longer the sole dominant power we have a massive rivalry between China and the United States and that is having economically disruptive effects for example how it makes Supply chains more difficult and that adds to inflation it's the interaction of these things that is creating a much bigger problem so if short rates indeed approach 5.5 to 6% is that baked into stock prices already and has the market factored it in fully no it's not priced in because what's priced in rather is that there will be a sharp fall in inflation rates there will be a fall in inflation rates as some of the exogenous factors like the oil price won't stay up where it is so that will bring inflation down some but that brings it down from a very high level of 8% to something lower than that and not sustaining pessimists a warning of a 1970s like situation where inflation surprises us and lingers on at a very high level for many years and not surprisingly those risks are very high we are at a paradigm shift we know that we are are going to spend a lot more money than we are taking in in the US we will have a budget deficit in the vicinity of 5% of GDP and there are so many demands on money now the Dilemma for any investor is how do you preserve or at least conserve your wealth at a time like this diio is famous for maintaining that cash is trash for most of his investing career but recently that changed he said that interest rates have now risen to a level where it's not as trashy when we had zero interest rates almost of course cash was terrible but now he said he would call it neutral no longer trashy it is harmful to other asset prices though and what you're going to see is a classic sequence of events where the interest rate Rises high enough that it is good for the Creditor but bad for the economy and when economic conditions again become a bigger worry than inflation you will see central banks come in and print more money so it's very important for investors over the long term to not hold debt instruments over the short term fixed income is neutral to slightly attractive but in the long run look at your returns relative to inflation because too many people look at just the level of returns and they don't pay enough attention to inflation secondly stay away from debt assets and debt denominated assets lastly have a well Diversified portfolio because diversification reduces risk without reducing expected returns if you do it well try to not be too tactical and realize that the markets are a zero sum game and to compete in the markets is more difficult because many more people are trying to do it and take money away from others touching upon the third point about the changing political power axis because that's important we've lived 75 years without any major war globally so is it about to change for this Delio said that he's a student of cycles and their mechanical cause effect and linkages and if we take the financial issues and the measures size of the wealth gap size of political gaps amount of populism external factors the conflicts between countries and the military buildup they are all at the highest levels since the tumultuous 1930 to 45 period and that is a period we are in again what we're seeing are no longer minor country confrontations like the United States against Afghanistan or Iraq it is now Russia and China so there are five kinds of Wars there is a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence War a capital and economic War a military war and the US is already in the first four of those even if we never participated in a major military war we still have damage happening globalization is declining because of fears of those looming Wars there is the desire for self-sufficiency it used to be that the world would come closer to producing items wherever it was most efficient but that is now changing now it is wherever it is most secure we have to assess investment Destin Nations keeping this in mind because neutrality is important the three things that you should look at according to Ray Deo while assessing countries is first the financials first do they earn better than they are spending financially or do they have a good balance sheet and good income statement second do people within the country operate in a balanced way healthy competition but not destructive political dysfunctional Behavior third are they at risk of an international war or are they more neutal and staying out of the international War if they tick these three boxes you should favor those countries Deo says both the economic and political cycle are going to get worse in the US and elsewhere we're going to have more internal conflict more economic problems like stagflation and that'll take us into the 2024 election similar patterns are visible around the world so as we go into the 2024 period you're going to encounter more of those problems so if there is is to pick a time that he thinks will be particularly challenging it'll have to be in the vicinity of 2024 to 25 perhaps the main thing is that the US doesn't get into an allout War because if this just becomes an evolutionary struggle we'll get through this even in depressions most people remain employed and even in Wars most people don't get killed it takes a while but you can get through it what do you think how are you going to implement Dio's advice let me know in the comments as always make sure to like the video and subscribe to my channel so you can be financially free until next time
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