Bill Ackman: Lost $400 Million In One Stock In 90 Days

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빌 애크먼이 넷플릭스 주식에 투자해 3개월 만에 약 4억 달러 손실을 본 사례를 분석하는 교육용 영상이다. 결론: 애크먼의 넷플릭스 투자 실패는 구독자 감소와 가격 결정력 약화가 원인이었으며, 장기 투자 관점에서 펀더멘털이 훼손되면 매도하는 판단이 중요하다. 배경: 넷플릭스는 2002년 상장 후 최고 수익률을 기록한 FANG 종목 중 하나였으며, 2021년 10월 주가 690달러 수준에서 2022년 1월 약 390달러로 하락했다. 하락 요인: 금리 상승이 고성장 기업 가치를 낮췄고, 경쟁 심화로 구독자 증가 둔화 우려가 커졌다. 애크먼의 투자 논리: 구독 모델의 반복 매출과 가격 결정력을 근거로 매수했으며, 넷플릭스를 치폴레와 같이 일시적 난관을 겪는 우량 기업으로 봤다. 가격 결정력: 넷플릭스 기본 요금은 월 15.49달러로 디즈니플러스(7.99달러), 애플TV(4.99달러)보다 높았으나, 스트리밍 경쟁 심화로 요금 인상 여력이 줄었다. 실패 계기: 2022년 4월 19일 1분기 실적에서 20만 명의 구독자가 감소했고, 향후 3개월간 약 200만 명 추가 감소를 전망했다. 매도 결정: 이 발표 이후 주가가 급락했고, 애크먼은 보유 지분 전량을 매도해 약 4억 달러 손실을 확정했다. 교훈: 장기 투자자라도 기업의 핵심 펀더멘털이 변하면 과감히 손절해야 하며, 타인의 실수에서 배우는 것이 비용 없는 학습이라는 점을 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 영상에서 넷플릭스 향후 주가 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없었다.

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01. bill ackman a millionaire investor just lost 400 million dollars in less than 90 days and we'll discuss what happened in this video ackman is one of the most keenly watched and regarded investors on wall street and for good reason his fund pushing square has made billions of dollars in gains for its clients but for all of his success ackman has had his fair share of mistakes this includes a three billion dollar loss on an investment in a business named valiant pharmaceuticals as well as a failed short bet on herbalife he just added to this list of disastrous investments with his stake in netflix ackman's funds lost 400 million dollars on this investment which he only held for three months now the ultimate purpose of studying famous investors blunders like this video is to assist us in avoiding losing money to paraphrase investing guru charlie munger making mistakes is one of the finest ways to learn and it's even better when you can learn from the mistakes of others learning from the mistakes of others is free if you can learn from the mistakes of previous investors you won't have to learn the same lessons with your own money that's what we'll look at in this video why ackman invested in netflix what went wrong and what you can learn from this investment blender to apply to your own investing let's get started but first make sure to like this video and subscribe to our channel let's get started with this video one of the amazing things about ackman's investment was that he clearly laid out why he acquired netflix and then once he sold he put out another letter detailing how he got to that decision despite its current difficulties netflix has been one of the best performing companies of all time you might have purchased the shares for a split adjusted price of 47 cents in october 2002 just after its initial public offering that same share may have traded for as much as 690 in october 2021 19 years later if you had invested ten thousand dollars in netflix in october 2002 that ten thousand dollars would have grown to fourteen point seven million dollars in october 2021 that would have been a very good return on your investment netflix has grown from a mail-order dvd rental service to the world's largest streaming service spending tons of billions of dollars on original content along the way netflix's growth as a corporation and its stock returns for investors earned it the moniker fang stock other fang stocks include companies such as facebook amazon apple and google netflix will be joining an incredible list of stocks however beginning in late 2021 netflix's stock price began to fall there were other forces at play both specific to netflix as a company and those affecting the broader stock market rising interest rates were one of the factors weighing in on netflix's shares as well as the stock prices of other high growth firms all else being equal rising interest rates reduced the value of a company and as a result the stock price of that company rising interest rates now have an impact on the value of all equities although some corporations suffer more than others due to competition as well investors became afraid that netflix would not be able to grow its subscriber base quickly enough this caused shares to fall from a peak of over 690 dollars per share in november 2021 to around 390 dollars per share just a few months later in january 2022 all of these elements paved the way for bill ackman to invest throughout his career ackman has made investments in otherwise brilliant companies that have faltered netflix ackman said was another chipotle type of investment a company with a temporary speed bump but overall a wonderful business before i go more in depth on why ackman bought netflix please like our video and subscribe to our channel for more material like this let's now return to the video one of the reasons i enjoy studying bill ackman is that he is extremely open about why he makes particular bets in his letter to investors ackman outlined his investment thesis or to put it another way why he favored netflix shares this argument focused on two key components subscriber growth and pricing power netflix's business model is subscription-based this generates what's known as recurring revenue for a corporation let me explain why investors adore so-called recurring revenue in most industries when a company makes a sale to a customer the connection between the company and the consumer is over obviously the corporation hopes that the customer would return to purchase another product or service but this is far from assured most businesses must spend money on advertising and promotions in order to entice the customer to return to the store and shop again with a subscription model you make your sale once by getting the consumer to sign up and provide their payment information and then you can sell to that customer again and again you put in the effort to convince the customer to join and that person will be a customer for the foreseeable future the subscription model has the advantage of being much more consistent and predictable in terms of revenue subscriber growth is obviously one of the most crucial indicators in a subscription model ackman's thought process was that netflix will be able to continue growing at subscribers despite the streaming conflicts as we outlined previously but this was not the case netflix revealed its first quarter results for the year on april 19th and they were not good netflix lost 200 000 customers in the first three months of 2022.

02. it was the company's first loss of subscribers in 10 years worse the firm stated that netflix will likely lose another 2 million customers over the next 3 months as you may imagine this was bad news for investors investors sold the shares in droves sending the price down even lower bill ackman was one of those investors who sold his entire interest in netflix after the news resulting in a 400 million dollar loss netflix has spent tens of billions of dollars on advertising as well as generating its own original content for years the second important aspect of akman's concept concerned pricing power this is a concept under which a firm can raise its prices without facing much opposition from customers the revenue equation for subscription business models is simple multiply the number of subscribers by the amount each subscriber pays this gives you the revenue generated by the company ackman argued that netflix had enough of a competitive advantage to charge more than competitors without losing users netflix's regular package is 15.49 per month compared to 7.99 per month for disney plus and 4.99 for apple tv for years netflix was the only game in town when it came to streaming so it didn't compete with other streaming providers instead it competed with cable relative to cable netflix has tremendous pricing power a basic cable plan costs roughly 60 netflix is only a fraction of the price of cable however considering netflix's recent performance netflix's pricing power may have simply vanished as a result of the surge of various streaming platforms because there are so many streaming options for consumers netflix no longer has to compete solely with cable in addition the corporation must compete with other streaming services many of which offer lower costs than netflix because there are so many streaming providers netflix's ability to raise its fees is limited in light of these shifting circumstances bill ackman chose to sell his share netflix after only a few months of ownership now what can we learn from this investment the choice of when to sell a stock is one of the most difficult for all investors whether you're operating a multi-billion dollar fund like akman or investing your savings from your first job looking at ackman's netflix investment can help us understand how to handle this challenge being a long-term focused investor is the only way to actually achieve high financial returns however as long-term investors we must walk a fine line between holding on to a company through market volatility and being willing to give up and sell if the core fundamentals of the company have altered and that just about wraps the video i hope you appreciated the video please give us a like and subscribe to our channel if you enjoyed our stuff see you in the next video